Oh they know we know they will just bare face lie. They have a word for it cant remember it.
It's only really moving in the north and any further advances in the next 3 months will be limited due to the mud. I can't see Ukraine getting any further than the Krasna this year.
I'm wondering how much of the thermobaric stuff they have. I'd imagine that would be, in their eyes, a reasonable means of defence since these areas are now considered Russia.
But all the major players have been awfully quiet, nobody is making threats to avenge this or at least make someone pay ,
Nato made a relatively short statement nothing major, Russians hinting through Twitter it was the Americans, thanks to the Biden speech not so long ago, most think it might be putin, but even the Russians have been quite,no fierce denials or pleading innocent or threats to take action for an attack on their pipeline no matter which whatever way you look at was a major earner for the Russians ,
Who ever did it was cute enough to make sure it happened in international waters and preventing a possible Article 5 Nato retaliation.
I think it interesting how little real outrage there is about the whole thing
Yep its a bit of a head scratcher.
Will we ever find out?
Maybe it will be like one of those mysteries of when someone is shot or killed on a soap or Mr Burns on the simpsons, there are so many suspects but its always the one that is the least obvious who did it...
Russia made a big mistake early on in their War regarding thermobaric weapons systems.
They sent them in as part of the force to take out Kyiv and also to tough nut areas like Mariupol, whereupon the Ukrainians destroyed them all using Javelins, AT4s and Bayraktar armed drones.
I seriously doubt that Russia has much in the way of mid-size offensive armour, ie tanks and artillery rocket systems, left at all. Ditto trucks, personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles.
Now thats bad news in one way, because it may well introduce into theatre, systems we haven't seen before, systems meant for going toe-to-toe with NATO land forces had the cold war turned hot, such as the Iskandr, Granat, Topol and Bastion short to medium range cruise and ballistic missiles.
Russia's ability to cause a huge amount of damage in areas where it has no physical presence, remains a massive hazard.
According to the Russians on Telegram, Lyman is an attempt to delay Ukraine for as long as possible until mobilized Russian troops start arriving to address their critical manpower shortage in this sector.
Regardless of that, Lyman is toast for Russia, mobilized troops won't arrive early enough to change things there. I am kind of hoping Putin issues a direct order to the Lyman defenders to issue a "Hitler at Stalingrad" type ultimatum that forbids Russians to retreat, therefore allowing Ukraine to encircle them. Unless Putin has completely lost the plot, I think Russia will withdraw from Lyman, maybe even as early as in the next 48 hours.
That's interesting, but if Russia has the ability to use these weapons systems, wouldn't it make sense to try and employ them before issuing the decree to mobilise hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, bringing the reality of the war home to Russia and risking public backlash against not only the war itself but also his government? What would make more difference for Putin? Long range ordinance or under-trained and under-supplied conscripts?
Very logical, cutting of the gas supply to Europe by sabotaging two pipelines that don't supply gas to Europe anymore.
Genius analysis bro
I am not sure about that. Other than a few notable Russian propaganda video's, we've not seen much use of thermobaric weapons on the battle field since the start of the war.
Firstly, Russia didn't have very many thermobaric weapons systems to start with. The rumour was that they possessed dozens, we have no idea to the actual number, but I seriously doubt it's more than 100. TOS-1 launchers and rockets are actually very expensive.
Secondly, Oryx only reports that 5 TOS-1's have been captured/destroyed, and as far as I can tell, all these happened much earlier on in the conflict. I haven't seen one captured or destroyed in months now. These things have never been common on the battlefield, which you should expect for a weapon that has a maximum range of 10km.
They are still being used (notably in Pisky), but it seems clear the Russians are being a lot more careful about them these days. I think they didn't have that many to start with, and whatever is left and still has ammo are being kept in safe areas of the battlefield like the DPR/LPR.
Ukraine have surrounded and cut off in Lyman,escape routes and supply routes within artillery range
I saw something today that suggested they were storing the gas underground...found it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/russia-is-keeping-unsold-gas-underground-rather-than-flaring-it
Interesting articles in Russian newspapers
Its not only the west thats concerned about the nuclear threat
Think the Russians are up to something
If Putin ultimately uses nukes because Ukraine will now be invading "Russian" territory part of the blame lies with the west. If we armed Ukraine properly when they asked instead of a slow drip feed they'd already have taken back most of their major occupied cities and no referendum would have taken place.
I do agree with the supply of weapons but i doubt it would have changed the outcome sooner,because noone predicted Ukraine to withstand the Russian attack and nobody really knew Russias capabilities at the time.
NATO even admitted to overestimating russian military capabilities at a later stage.
Also to do an offensive you need months of training and preperations of boots on the ground and new NATO equipment and wait for the right moment to strike,
In a previous life, I used to fabricate, calibrate and repair gas densitometers used in similar pipelines.
Between people leaving Russia and soldier's dying their population is going to take a bit of a hit. Not good for economic growth. Unfortunately they've stolen a lot of Ukrainian kid's and annexed part of Ukraine which will help counter this somewhat.
Maybe the Russians did it and the Americans are delighted as it suits them.
Stop with the Rubbish talk. I know you won’t, but it’s the best answer such dribble deserves.
I cannot casually dismiss the possibility that nuclear war could break out over the next few days, weeks, or months. History is all about the sudden emergence of catastrophes. The kinds of people who rise to the top in countries like Russia and China are precisely the types most capable of killing millions and bringing the world down with them.
The principal motivation to blow up the pipeline is with Putin. The people plotting to depose him could use the pipeline and turning on gas to Europe as a quick win post Putin to begin the long road to restore Russias global reputation.
If you have the hard evidence present it to the forum otherwise no they are as much a suspect as Russia.
NATO won't but Poland might. They know they can't let Ukraine fail and Belarusian troops would only attack Kiev to take resources away from the east. I'll believe it when I see it though.
American companies doing business in Europe have lost multiples alone this week of what Gas Europe uses in 12 months.
Putin wouldn't be getting pressure over the loss of revenue because it is so small to Russia in terms of its economy.
Wet open, but for what!,,,.
yes open, but for what?
Have a feeling this weekend and coming weeks are potentially the most risky times in the whole of human history, the annexation today and fiery speeches in Moscow, one misstep and things could look bleak.
I can only hope that the Western tech is so far ahead of Russians that even if they do attempt the worst that the western response is truly shock and awe.
One thing is for sure, the annexation is the beginning of the endgame one way or another.
Not as much according to you in the “global recession on the horizon” thread:
The most likely scenario is that the American did it. Only a complete loon would not consider them as the prime suspect here.
They actually threatened to do it on several occasions.
I was more concerned in early March than I am now, the longer it goes on, the more it shows up Russia as a weak state with nothing to go for them. A country built on fear and bullying the innocent.
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