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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,048 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    We could well see civil unrest in Belarus if Lukashenko attempted to involve the country in the war in any way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭rogber


    Look at who's posting the Twitter source. Last week he was posting sources here claiming a coup was underway in China. It's as good a guarantee as you can get that Belarus will NOT be entering the war



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,337 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Apart from Libya. 😕

    Who said anything about a random attack, it would need to be fully "justified".

    I imagine plans have already drawn up for it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Totally agree with Sergiy Kyslytsya Ukrainian ambassador at the UN

    Close the doors and put the mortice lock on




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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 34,090 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Its overwhelmingly likely not true, just like the previous 43 times it was claimed Belarus was about to enter the war.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    It's Gas the thinking that NATO don't actually plan for this kind of stuff Sure the USA had plans in the early years war with the British Empire. IIRC it basically turned into a stalemate with the British keeping the USA bottled up and raiding from Canada. War Plan Red I think.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    The land grab/ annexing is just for local Russian consumption. So the administration can show some progress in their war, a success and to justify conscripting citizens. Beyond that it doesn't change anything at all. Ukrainian army with support will continue to press and push the Russian forces back towards the pre existing borders. 'The Bomb' doesn't come into it as it would be the end for the Russian administration and many of their cities and people.

    The biggest sh*t that has gone down recently is the sabotage of the pipelines. That is real escalation and more where the danger lies. They try that again on any other EU or NATO states infrastructure and I think there will be major repercussions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But it's not beyond the realm of possibility,

    Belarus could still enter the war at any stage,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    ..



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 34,090 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The active armed forces of Belarus number 62,000. Think it is fair to suspect their reservists are about as useful as Russian ones.

    They are not supplying 100k troops to do anything. It is a nonsense suggestion. Why on Earth would they enter the war when Russia is losing?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,013 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "In Dagestan, a father blew himself up together with the policemen who wanted to mobilize his son."

    There is an utterly graphic and astonishing video of them exploding.

    Tragic, but it's the sort of resistance needed to have any chance at regime change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,139 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    Why though? And at what cost to them? Unlike Russia, Belarus is full of people actively wanting to overthrow their dictator, and the only thing stopping them is the armed forces. Belarus needs its army firmly inside its borders. And it's an army that's only manned and equipped to quell domestic strife, and project a limited aura of territorial defense. Despite giving their territory to Russia to launch the initial invasion, they didn't join in even when there was the assumption of decisive victory. Why would Lukashenko jump in now with an unprepared, unequipped, under-staffed army to join a losing side in a very unpopular war (domestically) and leave your entire regime exposed to real threat, not to mention the country itself if this does escalate further?

    The "realm of possibility" is so broad that there's really not much point in spending time out on its fringes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,337 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    If they were going to enter at any stage it would have been under the guise of "peace keepers" or some shít after Putin took the whole of Ukraine in 3 days.

    That ship has long sailed, if NATO doesn't bomb them back to the 70s, Ukraine will probably be given the tools to do it.

    Lukashenko is an absolute oaf, but he is not completely retarded.

    Anyway the weaker Russia becomes the more chance he has of removing himself from Putins hole, although he seems comfy up there.

    The reality is, stark or otherwise, there is no way Ukraine will be "allowed" lose this war, we have crossed that line, too much at stake now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    62,000 plus another 320,000 + reservists on top of the several thousands Russian forces who are both making sure he stays in power and launch attacks on ukraine.

    He could send tens of thousands while keeping the bulk of his 60,000 military forces at home



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Gregor Samsa The "realm of possibility" is so broad that there's really not much point in spending time out on its fringes.


    Much like the talk of nukes and WMDs but yet it's still being talked about on a daily basis on here



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,013 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    ‼️In Crimea, Russian troops have redeployed after a series of explosions

    ▪️After a series of explosions in the annexed Crimea, the Russian military relocated part of the personnel of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to Novorossiysk, and also distributed the aviation that was in Crimea to airfields on the territory of Russia. The representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitsky, reported this in Krym.Realiya.


    "Measures were carried out in the Black Sea Fleet, those personnel who are not directly involved and have auxiliary functions, were relocated from the military headquarters to Novorossiysk. We do not rule out that some warships and supply ships will be moved from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk as well. To avoid getting hit. As for the movements, the grouping in Crimea has not changed on the Crimean peninsula, apart from the fact that aviation has been redeployed, its concentration on airfields of the Russian Federation, air defense has been strengthened due to the transfer of additional air defense forces and means," Vadim Skibitskyi said

    Ukraine seem to be responding to Orc threats as you would expect - giving them the finger.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,972 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Lukashenko is a moron but he's wily enough not to shoot himself in the foot by sending his forces abroad to fight a very dangerous opponent.

    Like all dictators, Lukashenko's #1 policy is staying in power. Everything should be viewed though that lens.

    There were persistent mass protests all over the country, only two years ago, the likes of which have never been seen in Putin's Russia. Those people haven't gone away and they certainly haven't changed their mind about Lukashenko. He's not going to weaken his hand and allow them to pop back up.

    At this stage he's basically functioning as an emotional support dog for Putin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,013 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,337 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Half the army and the reservists would be doing the same cross country running we saw in recent days too if it came to it.

    Nothing in it for Lukashenko to invade Ukraine, everything to lose though.

    Not going to happen, instilling yourself in a campaign that can't be won would be next level stupid.



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  • Posts: 1,886 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,731 ✭✭✭Economics101


    Thanks. I just hope the Russians are as slow in reacting to their 99% ballots as we have been in following up on the Seanad electorate amendment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,337 ✭✭✭✭Boggles




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,791 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Lukashenko will do whatever keeps him in power. Nothing else. He knows the hangman is always right over his shoulder.

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11



    National nuclear plants operator Energoatom denies information about fire at 2nd unit of Zaporizhzhia power plant

    there is an issue in Zaporizhzhia!

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,952 ✭✭✭zv2


    If Belarus enters the war they must be destroyed by America/nato. Attacking Belarus is not an attack on Russia. Attack them.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228




  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 34,090 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Some very basic logic needs to be employed here. When Russian forces were threatening Kyiv and looked like they have a good shot at victory, Belarus could have provided a significant impetus to their operations and yet they remained on the sidelines (despite at certain points suggesting they were about to attack). Lapdogs like Lukashenko leap at that kind of opportunity - he simply has too many domestic problems to make it a realistic option. To do so now would be pure insanity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭rogber


    So basically you're admitting you're in the same category as the people you yourself attack, just regarding different issues



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭rogber


    There's really only one gullible poster pushing the Lukashenko line here, I think the rest of us are in agreement about the issue.



This discussion has been closed.
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