Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Danzy · 29-09-2022 12:56PM

The main reason I think Putin would use a nuclear weapon is the economic chaos it would cause globally.

The economic destruction globally would be inestimable.

He might kill a half million in Kiev with a small nuke but the damage to the global orders and economy would leave that in the small column. I doubt that there would be a nuclear retaliation.

It may well be his intent to do so purely to collapse the global economy in the belief Russia will rise again stronger.

It's possible but unlikely, probably.

josip · 29-09-2022 12:59PM

Lyman will definitely be retaken in the coming weeks. What is perhaps more interesting is where the front line/line of conflict will settle down to for the remainder of 2022. Most of the clips/photos from Ukraine show that the mud season has already arrived.

Although the Ukrainians took Bilohorivka a couple of weeks ago, I have yet to see much evidence that they have crossed the Zherebets river downstream of Lyman. If the Russians manage to defend the river there, then I would expect them to also try and hold that defensive line north of Lyman. Ukraine will probably expand from their numerous bridgeheads on the left(East) bank of the Oskil and up from the south and control much of the land in between. This would also have a PR benefit of completely clearing Kharkiv Oblast of Russians.

If the Ukrainians do manage to get across the Zherebets while taking Lyman, then the Russians will almost certainly fall back to the high ground on the right (West) bank of the Krasna river that runs through Svatove/Kremina.

https://liveuamap.com/

Wes M. · 29-09-2022 12:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680148#Comment_119680148

They may not have anywhere to flee to with news of countries closing their borders to Russians. I read yesterday that recruitment offices were being setup at border checkpoints, so I imagine the war machine is doing brisk business in that respect...

Danzy · 29-09-2022 01:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680148#Comment_119680148

No it would probably mean martial law and no one does martial law like commies.

Communist army 101:

Mass forces of poorly armed forces and keep flooding them in till the opposition are exhausted.

China, Vietnam, Russia etc etc all used it.

I don't think that he'll take Ukraine but he might hold what they have through sheer weight of numbers going to the slaughter house.

No one has less meas in Russian lives than Russian leaders.

Podge_irl · 29-09-2022 01:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680179#Comment_119680179

My response was overly flippant, but its not 1941. Russia does not have the manufacturing capacity to arm troops or the manpower to train them. They are not facing an existential threat to their own existence and have no allies.

The far more likely scenario of a full of mobilisation is that it just adds to unrest in Russia and does very little to impact what's happening in Ukraine. On paper this was a threat 6 months ago, now its just sad.

cnocbui · 29-09-2022 01:24PM

👌Relatives of those mobilized from the so-called "DNR" complained to Pushilin that their husbands were raped by Kadyrivs.

I'd say Orc conscripts really are f*cked, but that seems redundant.

Danzy · 29-09-2022 01:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680188#Comment_119680188

I'd say they have enough AKs in storage to arm a continent.

They may hold urban areas through sheer numbers of lads in building taking pot shots.

The 4 annexed provinces have some natural defence advantages. The southern ones have the best of Russian soldiers.

They'll be digging In and fortifying for months now.

Through sheer weight of numbers they should be able to hold on, at massive cost to life of their men and civilian population.

It's a small ask for a massive Army, at incredible cost to them but it may just be possible.

If they were half decently run, trained and equipped this mobilization would be to completely take everything east of Dneiper at less cost and dead men.

Gatling · 29-09-2022 01:26PM

This could be interesting if true, maybe Putin has a solution to his mobilisation issues

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1575455679179104257?s=20&t=LUXe7-I9sGb1IcXskvB2SA

rogber · 29-09-2022 01:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680274#Comment_119680274

If it's as reliable as your usual Twitter sources, unlikely to be true

antodeco · 29-09-2022 01:33PM

A long shot, but maybe Putin is going to use these referendums as the "end game" for the special operations. They now pull out of Ukraine saying their operation is complete, as they simply wanted to "liberate" the areas that wanted to join Russia anyway.

Strazdas · 29-09-2022 01:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680274#Comment_119680274

This would be hugely controversial within Belarus itself. The Belarussian people have no quarrel with Ukraine and see the invasion as being Putin's war. If Lukashenko tries to send 100k Belarussian men to war, expect major pushback in Belarus....people will not take this lying down.

rogber · 29-09-2022 01:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680299#Comment_119680299

Then they still have to stay and defend the 15 percent territory they've just stolen so the "operation" ie war continues unchanged.

GM228 · 29-09-2022 01:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680274#Comment_119680274

Is it time to re-issue all those Lukashenko memes?

It is being reported however in some places that mobilisation has commenced in Belarus?

https://t.me/bobruisk_online/5775

https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Swiat/Masowe-wezwania-mezczyzn-do-wojska-na-Bialorusi.-Pobor-zaczal-sie-w-duzych-miastach

EOQRTL · 29-09-2022 01:48PM

I long for the days before Twitter. Any eejit can now put up a story with some "source" as their reference point and pass it off as news and the gullible just lap it up.

It's tiresome tripe and takes away from real world relevant news worthy stories by diluting the pool of information. Still waiting for the coup in China to be real cause Twitter said so.

Boggles · 29-09-2022 01:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680274#Comment_119680274

Not a hope.

NATO would level their military infrastructure over a weekend, with the added bonus it would send quite the message.

EOQRTL · 29-09-2022 01:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680299#Comment_119680299

You are right, it's a very long shot. For a start why would he mobilise an extra 300k soldiers if he intended on pulling out.

Danzy · 29-09-2022 01:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680320#Comment_119680320

They might use them to cover Russian forces in Russia who could be redeployed to Ukraine.

It might be nothing as well. Not the first time that Belarusian has said such.

29-09-2022 01:54PM

I'm surprised it's taken this long for Lukashenko to get involved. If this is true then it will be deeply unpopular and Belarus may see itself fighting both at home and in Ukraine if their last protests were to go by.

Gatling · 29-09-2022 01:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680368#Comment_119680368

NATO won't be attacking Belarus anytime soon,

Nato don't just randomly attack countries

Gatling · 29-09-2022 02:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680336#Comment_119680336

Ahhh no what are the New arrived going to say now ...

Oh wait WMDs.

xxxxxxl · 29-09-2022 02:01PM

Days since Nuke threat -1. Any I mean any sign of Nuclear will be viewed by china as a red line Whatever about the west. You may see a fast invasion from their flanks the Russians. And the chinese take over Moscow. Now nukes could be used in that case but only in Russia. Remember china has had full access to russia for ages knows exactly where stuff is and how to take it out.

29-09-2022 02:04PM

So if Russia annexes the occupied territories at 3pm tomorrow and the Ukrainians continue to fight to liberate them does that mean we can finally stop talking about nukes if the world still exists at 3.01 pm?

Gatling · 29-09-2022 02:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680435#Comment_119680435

Meanwhile off China and Taiwan the Chinese military are practicing landing military assault Crafts from roll on roll off ferries .

China might be happy enough with Putin keeping all eyes on him

Gatling · 29-09-2022 02:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680452#Comment_119680452

Let's all have a party tomorrow we all still here 1.0

Gatling · 29-09-2022 02:10PM

Lessons from highly qualified reservists according to some .

How to sling your AK 47

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1575464182174154752?s=20&t=jPUczhQZVRaSHT3TpCEN2w

EOQRTL · 29-09-2022 02:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680469#Comment_119680469

Any more info on the coup in China. What's Twitter had to say on it?

GM228 · 29-09-2022 02:13PM

Have not seen our favorite Twitter handle quoted in a while:-

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1575461289677279233?t=hXgvYWr0PUV-8Y1sHYtg1A&s=19

xxxxxxl · 29-09-2022 02:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680469#Comment_119680469

True but they have seen what western tech can actually do in the field now not just surmise how it will function or guesstimate its effect. China is just sabre rattling at this stage. Going to the war with the west is a completely different kettle of fish to stabbing a so called allie in the back and grabbing land. We know how wars on 2 fronts go if your not the allies. India needs a swift kick up the H*le too remind them where their loyalties should lie. The time for talk as this stage is well over you cannot deal with a rogue state like this nothing put on paper will be worth anything.

Wes M. · 29-09-2022 02:13PM

A bit of lightness but back in the late 80's when I was a 2000AD reader, nuclear war between Russia and the West was shifting into the realm of science fiction. I'm reminded of the Judge Dredd strip from 1982, The Apocalypse War, which has Mega-City One struck by nuclear weapons by East-Meg-One. Such anxieties were palpable back in 1982, but it seems we're coming full circle at the moment. Let's hope it all stays within the fevered imagination of comic writers...

Run Forest Run · 29-09-2022 02:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119680274#Comment_119680274

Lots of things could be interesting, if true. Like this for example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kq0bjSQc7Ic

Always worth dropping in to see where Mr Galloway is standing with regard to war. He has been proven correct in the past.

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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