Pretty historically significant considering it was designed to be a 'Protestant State for a Protestant people'.
There is still only 29% who consider themselves Irish only though.
And the Free State/ Republic was set up as a 'Catholic State for a Catholic People'.
And that's how it turned out and look how that went, before you slap yourself on the back.
If anything we've moved away from religion and religious identity and so in time will the 'catholics' up north, so it's meaningless statistic.
I totally agree with you that you can't be looking for border polls every hands turn, and that such devicive debates do put a lot of people off.
But you could not have expected the SNP to wait till after Brexit because Brexit in 2013/2014 wasn't even a thing.
The first real indication of a date for a Brexit vote was in Jan 2013 when Cameron said that he would have a vote before 2017 if the Conservative party was returned to government in the 2015 general elections.
It was a mere two months later that the date for indyref was announced.
No one planning the date for indyref could have predicted Brexit.
While I have no sympathy for The Irish Question once again blighting British politics, it is and will remain an internal British political question of if a border poll is called. I think SF could get 100 seats in the Dail and it wouldn't matter if the govt in Westminster had their own political reasons for not calling a border poll.
3 decades? Yeah, that seems a fairly reasonable projection. Will depend a lot on external events also you'd suspect.
The example of the Scottish referendum should give anyone who is impatient about a border poll on this Island, some serious pause for thought.
Timing can and very often is vitally important in life.
Had the SNP called that independence vote AFTER the whole brexit debacle, it's quite likely the yes vote might have got over the line. Such was the anger and shock surrounding the brexit result. As it stands now, Scottish nationalists might have to wait a long time for another opportunity. And there are many people in society that do not enjoy the atmosphere around such emotive issues, so tend to be a bit unlikely to embrace all the stress and turmoil that these votes can bring.
You can't just keep calling for border polls whenever you like, people will start to get sick of the whole thing and apathy might set in. So timing can be crucial if you really want the best chance of succeeding.
Yes but probably about 3 only.
This is very important, not so much for any imminent unification, but so that the Unionist parties and British population wake up and realise its time they take the Irish side seriously and as equals. That means language and culture in particular but also accepting the First Minister and the protocol.
They should focus on fixing things there first .
Some further exonomic integration with Ireland could do them wonders, its obvious that Northern Ireland has a serious lack of investment
what difference is it going to make? it was never about religion - it was always about land grabs and power. I know/knew very few republicans who were stout catholics - most were non religious. The religion card is differentiation introduced a few hundred years ago so the british could lie to their citizens and say the 'irish problem' wasnt due to their invasion and taking of land, but because of religious differences. It was never about religion.
Also, there was always a high number of people termed 'catholic' who would never have filled in a census as thats recognising being a citizen of the UK. As times change and that attitude (and people) die off, less 'catholics' avoid filling it in. theres prob been a majority for years.
A UI is about 20 years away - the same as it was 40 years ago funnily enough.
Near enough to see it in your lifetime but far enough that you don't have to worry about any of the negative consequences.
you might be surprised then.
Plurality
Even at this rate of increase it is decades off a majority.
It’s not roundabout you just clearly don’t understand it. There is nothing to accept into the EU - Ireland will simply remain a member. There is nothing more complicated to it.
Nor does anyone think the EU will take over the subvention. You have taken a comment about the EU helping and gone wild with it.
I would always have taught we should have solved the problem 40-50 years ago. Both the British and Irish government's should have dug a trench along the border and pushed the whole place up towards Iceland.
I know it would be unfair on Iceland, but hopefully most of the f@@kers up there would freeze became a problem there.
exactly, and even if they did resist they wouldn't gain anything anyway so it would all be for nothing.
More important than that the overwelming majority won't be motivated to 'resist'. Loyalists have been conditioned so long to see a majority in NI as a legitimate democratic unit that when that majority goes against they won't be able to justify to themselves using force against the will of that majority. I've quoted this before but I think this Jimmy Carr line encapsulates how the vast majority of the PUL community will deal with the new situation.
Unification will definitely happen but it's probably 50-100 years away.
I don't know how the Unionists thought that Brexit was a good idea. That made eventual unification a certainty and I think No.10 knew that very well. I don't think the UK even really wants NI at this point. It's costing the UK money for quite some time now. They have invested a lot into it but it's a loss maker long term. I'd be happy to let it go if I was in charge of UK policies.
What's interesting is why that "Northern Irish only" number has gone down about 1% in 10 years.
We constantly hear about this group of mainly young "post peace process" people who have grown up without violence who will end up voting Alliance and have no time for the past.
But it seems they don't exist.
Between 2011 and 2021 you should have had swathes of people joining this cohort as they grow into adulthood and decide their own identity.
But instead they seem to have joined the "British and Northern Irish", "Irish only" or "Irish and Northern Irish' groups.
The "Northern Irish only" tend to be soft unionists so it will be interesting to see what part they play in the whole thing in decades to come, but the fact that their number have not increased is another dagger for overall unionism.
realistically the loyalists won't be able to do very much if anything, the PSNI and gardai will be able to manage them very well and they won't have any of the supports in place that allowed them to operate as they did during the troubles.
there is probably more of a risk of violence in a yes vote in NI but no vote in ROI situation, in my personal view.
Tell me more about this “new” nation of ireland? How many counties will be in the “new” province of ulster?
Now in September 2022, a majority in NI consider themselves Irish only.
The census we are quoting took place 18 months ago.
The figure for "British only" was 40% in 2011.
Therefore, the trajectory is comfortably in the "Irish only" camp in September 2022. Probably by 1% on those figures alone.
Together with that is how Brexit and the Protocol were handled by the DUP and Tories in the last 18 months to which will almost certainly add to the "Irish only" camp.
Anyway im out.
This is why you never get many foreigners impute on this subject. I never Post in stuff like this because it's just a roundabout. I understand its an Emotive subject I have no issue with a united Ireland. But there is a lack of thought and assuming the EU will take over the British subversion.
I just implore anyone who is going to vote on this go in with open eyes. Germany keeps being brought up have asked how that applies to the new nation of Ireland. Germany paid for it it's self. No one has posted a convincing argument how new Ireland will be accepted into the EU.
That doesn't even begin to make sense. If you have a stroke or heart attack in Ireland you are more likely to survive than in the UK, never mind in NI.
Neither the HSE or the NHS is close to perfect, but there is little enough reason to call one better than the other.
There is, however, a perception that the NHS is far better and that is one of many things that will need to be addressed in any border campaign.
Pretty interesting that 20% see themselves as northern Irish only.
So many on both sides see themselves and Irish or British based on their daddy's daddy and so on.
I had always wondered what if Northern Ireland just became its own state and neither part of roi or Britain.
I also wonder what would happen if immigration happened at the rate of the south. Makes you think. Immigrants don't care for history but so much of the problems in the North is due to history.
All in all NI is messed up through no one's fault other than the brits who planted 400 odd years ago. You can't blame the unionists for their beliefs that they are British because their history for the last 400 years is that.
Because Ireland gets a lot fewer illnesses.
Suit yourself, but Ireland's health outcomes are better for many illnesses.
No, you’re right. I know SFA about either
I live between both countries and have had reason to use both. I also have close relatives using both health services.
if I ever get seriously I’ll, I know which system I would rather treat me.
So Germany did not get a bail out they paid the 2 trillion themselves. What are you going to call NI joining the Republic ? It's not unification as one country is not part of the Republic. Are you suggesting everything from the North just gets magically absorbed ? Germans being Germans would have had plans for decades. There is no talk here at all. And the fund you mention can be drawn down by anyone there is no Ireland fund.
Ireland would not be a "new" country, it would be an expanded country. This is how Germany was treated and the same would apply. There is zero risk that this would not happen.
Of course the EU won't make a statement - why on earth would they? No one is going to make a statement (except SF) until such time as a border poll is likely as it would be seen as interfering in the affairs of a foreign government.
East Germany still receives European Regional Development funding to this day.
But yes, ultimately I also don't think there is any chance of a UI in the next 20 years.
That may be on the outside. But EU wide relations were at steak with Brexit. There is no unification happening no fund to draw down on. So we have gone from support to well the EU won't make a statement. As I have asked is there anything in Eu laws relating to a new country of Ireland. Again it's not a unification situation. Ireland has given away any claims to the North. I'm an outsider looking in. I asked what EU fund supported the Germans in their 2 trillion bailout of the country. No one seemed to want to answer that.
wont happen i think, Loyalists will make sure there is a proper civil war like the one feared in 1970, with the war fought in southern areas and borderlands. people of the south wont vote for a united ireland if they get a taste of troubles circa 1980s/early 90s in Dublin/kildare/meath/cork city /galway city etc.
i dont even think theres any great love between catholics in the republic and in the north , a lot of distrust and suspison i always found with people from tyrone and armagh, always felt they had a chip on thier shoulder and animosty between certain places. I remeber the gardai confiscting a Palestine flag off a tyrone fan in a match in Navan in 2018, to great cheers from the natives. same after the match young meath fans giving abuse to tyrone fans for having palestine flags with them. Maybe that why Meath are nicknamed the Royals! definitley wasnt much love in that evening to our northern nationalists.
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