From media reports, it sounds like people are trying to figure out how to escape Russia rather than organising themselves at a protest- I think the best we can hope for is that those in charge of nuclear buttons or whatever group are tasked with the decision making to tell Putin to fck off if he orders them to go down that road- I think people will become quite selfish in a good way if Putin barks orders that will ultimately be negative for Russians themselves- hopefully there’s less loyalty towards Putin than he’s making out to be
Is there enough equipment and rations for these men? Otherwise, is the plan to throw men at Ukraine until the ammo runs out?
I dont think he is going to go down the nuclear option, to me its just all bluster to try and test the wests resolve in backing Ukraine.
However if they were crazy enough to do it then I would suspect it will be used as a weapon of terror to force Ukraine into submission. Perhaps on infrastructure, but I wouldn't rule out them targetting a large population area to create panic.
And the question is then how does the west retaliate. Do they hit Russian infrastructure with a small nuclear device and Russia hits back and on it goes. Or do they do nothing at the risk of escalation and look weak.
No easy options.
Current aviation movements if interest:
South of St.Petersburgh, a Russian Airforce TU-214R SIGNIT and reconnaissance/communications aircraft ( or Doomsday aircraft as some like to call it), is currently circling a town that Putin is visiting.
Also, in an unusual situation, both a Global Hawk and RAF RC-135W Rivet Joint are south of Crimea. You never see the two in the same airspace together.
Stranger things did it, but the other way around
Ukraine to develop Drone Army in response to Putin’s mobilization.
Mykhailo Fedorov, the Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, has stated that his digital team would improve and strengthen the Drone Army in response to "the partial mobilization" of Russians.
"Our team will focus even more attention on the Drone Army project in order to provide Ukraine’s Armed Forces with efficient UAVs. For each Russian mobilized person and a tank, we should have several armed drones."
@greenpilot Also, in an unusual situation, both a Global Hawk and RAF RC-135W Rivet Joint are south of Crimea. You never see the two in the same airspace together.
Definitely something unusual in that flight we've been tracking both regularly at different times and different airspaces but not in the same space at the same time
Finally we have an explanation for the white goods looting in Ukraine, hiding places for relatives.
While I don't forsee a crash and burn, it is surely too soon to be brushing off the impact of these gas shortages in Europe in September when the continent's coldest and darkest months are still well ahead. Best to assess the impact of that in March/April and maybe then you can brush it off.
Now you're talking complete muck. The amount of radioactive material in a powerstation vs even a large nuclear device is not even comparable. Its like saying a lad flushing his jacks causes as much pollution as the lad spreading slurry down the road. And the amount of radioactive fallout from new bombs is less than was in the original bombs. The world would need to empty its nuclear arsenal before we'd see an end to humanity and that will never happen. Once the original aggressor is incapacitated it would all be over. Massive destruction but no where near end of days.
It's a comedy sketch.
If I were Putin, where would I detonate a nuke? Well, it depends on the purpose, doesn't it.
For maximum effect. The "I cannot believe they actually did it, shocked faces, self reflecting, maybe we've pushed too far" effect, I would detonate one in, or airburst over, the Black Sea. Just about where the USAF Global Hawk is circling, along the 44 degree latitude line.
It would be the ultimate shot over the bow, demonstrating that they do, indeed, work. No-one harmed, point made. Next move, NATO.
But, I'm not Putin. So who the hell knows. It's either there, or off the coast of Kaliningrad.
Just like the mobilisation of 300,000 .
Pure comedy
Problem for the regime is that the use of even a small nuclear weapon would immediately turn Russia into a pariah state. Even their so called "allies" would abandon them immediately and want nothing more to do with them. It would be a clear act of state terrorism, breaching all military conventions.
This bin-lid....
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/former-advisor-vladimir-putin-says-091114491.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALBhtIWA-_R_QQyCyehvTwdodBjQgtn_QLlY8ep495Xd1WMsFlvuk5K_R8LrMWpa7h8eLuyowuTmFsFxjHe693Wiw5KGLf6_hfC5ptLYVKWAhdJxc5ndF_AaLUGkhEr32gfUuRBrEPwEPvKsxQi9KGxpYuX3DN9u8Q3Q_pUYfmSu
with that move you would not only have Turkey enter the war but also have a very high probability of taking down a US plane which was in international airspace and that would not be met with indifference.
I suspect the West would do nothing and say Ukraine isn't worth nuclear war. Certainly the populations will say that. But I also don't think Russia will take the first step to begin with
That was an interesting read but the main take away for me was that nearly every incident was due to equipment malfunctions, bad intel or human error. Even the incidents during the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Yom Kippur War.
The time that most closely resembles the current situation is the First Gulf War. Saddam ranting and raving about wiping Israel off the map and crushing the West. That worked out well for him.
They couldn't do nothing. That would give Putin (and Xi) carte blanche to do whatever they want in future since they can always threaten to use their nuclear weapons in order to make the West back down.
it's catch 22.... even a tactical nuke airburst with limited ground damage would still shoot out gamma radiation and an EMP in all directions (i.e. also at Russian positions and infrastructure, particularly SATCOMS)... something people forget is that the Russian's are particularly dependent on HF radio comms, which is very much reliant on stable (if you can ever call it that) ionosphere conditions.... filling the ionosphere with gamma radiation makes conditions unpredictable (similar effects to a solar storm) so it can knock out comms for up to 12 hours before it settles back to normal.... this is also the case for Radar (particularly their OTH kit)... now whether they have kit which is "immune" to this, is definitely debateable...
second scenario is close to or actual ground burst ... winds going one direction irradiate Russia, winds going the other direction trigger article 5
edit: X-ray's along with Gamma radiation
For the millions of Ukrainians hoping this war would soon end, the thousands more who will die, be forced to flee, who have lost hope of returning home, there is nothing funny about this announcement at all. It means this awful war is destined to continue and normality and peace are still a long way off.
And to you it's pure comedy
I mean militarily nothing, in terms of nuclear retaliation. They will just turn Russia into another North Korea
Yes .
100% this
And if he's allowed to do it in Ukraine we will have threads on every Baltic state going forward with the same opinion just let him take a few thousand kilometers of land and we will have peace if not he's going to nuke us all
Desperation factory workers being sent to their deaths in Ukraine
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the War Room.
It was you who stated Russia could have nuclear sea mines near Data Cables of the Irish Coast...... forgive me I'm not taking the rubbish above very serious
Sorry to break the news, but they are long out of date at this stage
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