Go away Kermit.
It doesnt matter about the rights or wrongs. Crimea is spilt milk that should have been dealt with at the time. Now it's a fully integrated part of the Russian federation unlike the Donbas. I could see an attack on Crimea getting very, very nasty and Russia has no qualms on using nuclear weapons in it's military doctrine if it's territory is attacked.
The west shouldn't allow ourselves to be roped in to a catastrophe if the Ukrainians try to over reach.
I think the focus should be on returning to pre Febuary borders as well as the Donbas. Attacking Crimea could set the whole region ablaze. It would be a disaster in my view.
Ukrainian Army 'feeling their oats' a bit on Twitter:
They should have thought of that when they illegally annexed it.. Showed a serious lack of examination of all the pros and cons and possible outcomes down the line.
Kherson seems to be active tonight.
Not sure what's going on.
Have you been living under a rock? Crimea has already been attacked and so has territory inside the real Russian border.
Putin's regime are hanging tough at the moment. Who has the deeper pockets and more patience? They've made a disastrous miscalculation that will change the geo politics of Europe for years to come and which almost certainly reduces Russia both politically & economically. Allowing China to gain greater influence to their east & south east among the 'stans' of the former USSR. Caught for the foreseeable between the growing influence of the EU to their west and China on the other side. All for what? A dream of former glory?
The Russian government regards Crimea as part of it's sovereign territory so an attack would be considered an attack on Russia itself. It would be very dangerous.
The Russians should also be f****d out of Belarus and Transnistria. They used Belarus as an invasion route.
How to end the war has already been answered many times......but here it is again. Russia defeated, and pushed 100 % out of Ukraine and that includes Crimea. With a weapons free 50 Klm buffer zone on the Russian side.
And that was 4 hits out of how many fired?
I'm just after watching Skandal: Bringing Down Wirecard.
One of the biggest, if not the biggest, financial frauds in Europe had involvement from, or maybe it was even fully controlled by, you guessed, the russians. Their CEO escaped the day it came crushing down to, you guessed, Russia. And there are allegations that he was a GRU asset. The company was used for their involvement in the migrant crisis and far right support. It boggles the mind how Europe became so vulnerable to them, and how difficult it was to bring them down even with undeniable evidence.
Well you're right on the first one ...
A burial site is where a body or bodies are buried , singly ,multiply or in mass Graves or pits ...
Is there a reason for arguing over this shite
4/5 Russian aircraft taken down in 2 days.
And no losses of Ukrainan aircraft.
Can someone take his keyboard away.
Ukrainian aviation conducted airstrikes at 9 gatherings of Russian military and equipment, several bases and 2 positions of air defense units. Ukrainian air defense shot down Su-24 plane, 3 cruise missile and a drone. Ukrainian missile and artillery troops conducted strikes at Russian army reserves at gathering points and at railway station during unloading, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
Even if that was acceptable to the Ukranian people to go back to pre February lines, there is not a hope in hell Putin and Russia will go for that, they will not be giving up Kherson and other gains they have made since February. Looking at all the atrocities being discovered now from Russian occupied areas and the complete destruction brought onto their country by Russia would you really expect Ukrainians to be ok with this?
That is just one thing, then Russia also demands Ukraine demilitarise, they want to leave Ukraine defenseless so that they will easily be able to make another go at them again in the future once they can regroup their forces and army. The only guarantee that can prevent this is for Ukraine to join NATO, otherwise even if a peace deal is negotiated we will more than likely be back to the same situation in a few years down the line.
I would hazard a guess their has been unofficial talks between officials about this and due to the above demands from Russia it makes official peace talks useless.
Now on the nuclear matter, It is my opinion that if you let any nation get away with what ever it likes just because it has nuclear weapons then it will create a more dangerous situation and will embolden Putin. So that he can get away with more because of the threat.
@mcsean
We've never been closer to doomsday according to the scientist running the clock. I wonder where we'll be this year following the conflict. It's not funny.
You can go around saying Russian's are inhuman orcs but they are not, they're genetically human. It's in the interest of humanity to end this stupid conflict ASAP without nuclear weapons.
That's just how I see it, I may be wrong. If you think I'm wrong, fine, happy to discuss but no need to attack me personally, e.g. calling me a schizophrenic weirdo, is not constructive imho.
It is 100 seconds to midnight by reckoning of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and that is certainly the closest the clock has been set, as far as I know. However, that's not just due to a perceived heightening in the nuclear threat but the grave warnings now being given about climate change being at an unstoppable tipping point. My point of view is that it's far easier for people just to not use nuclear weapons than it is for governments and peoples to accept the short-term economic consequences of trying to get hydrocarbons out of energy production, so I think nuclear weapons and their use make of the lesser of the existential risks facing humanity right now.
I don't believe that Russia is ever going to deploy nuclear weapons in order to achieve victory in Ukraine. They haven't even broken out the gas yet, that we definitely know of. He can't do it - it would reek of desperation, belying the cool, calm exterior he likes to portray, but much more importantly than that, exposes Putin's Russia as an erratic ally and makes sitting on the fence highly problematic for China, potentially creating more international isolation for Russia.
And finally, the sight of a Ukrainian city being blasted apart by a Russian nuclear weapon would cause such an outcry in the West that NATO would be forced to move much more decisively than they are currently doing, whether that means blockading the Black Sea or occupying what's left of Ukraine, or (my preference) assassinating Putin. Western intelligence can probably get to Putin and his circle if they really want to, and in such a way that the Russians couldn't prove who did it, so Putin would do well to choose carefully where and when he escalates this conflict.
With oil prices they way they are now, many an economist will tell you Russia is now in deficit territory. Deficits are sustainable when you have access to markets and are creditworthy - that's not Russia.
The fangs of sanctions will really start to make themselves known in the next few months. And like everything in the thread, I'll stake my name and reputation on it.
Looking forward to giving the "but rouble stronk" merchants a good shoeing in the ribs when it becomes way too obvious to hide. It's going to be a hoot.
I guess that the oil / gas business is not as profitable as it once was, plus fall in employment levels plus inflation? While Putin himself is not hurting, you can be sure that the majority of Russians themselves are.
This.
A nice little backdoor deal.
China 'sells' weapons to Nutjob Korea. Korea sells at highly inflated price. Korea and their CCP puppet masters get a slice.
Or could have been genuinely bought before the war broke out. Nothing to say that cannot use ammo bought before conflict.
Tankies are all grabbing their rosaray beads mourning the Minsk Agreements when Russia are getting kerbstomped backwards with panic in Moscow.
We see you edgelords. We always see you. You want negotiations now when Russia is losing. Let 'er rip we all say. Send the demoralised provincials back to where they came from - either in boxes or their uniforms aflame.
Your entire argument here seems to boil down to: "The Russians have nuclear weapons - we better stop helpng the Ukrainians fight back against them and let them keep that land they stole in 2014".
What kind of message would that send to Putin and to other nuclear powers who might have their eyes on territory that they currently do not control?
Minsk is dead. Don't even know why you're bringing it up. The Russians were never interested in it and spat in the face of the European interlocuters who negotiated it from the off.
This means young Russian men stacked on top of each other in zinc boxes, the Dnieper red with their blood, and the Russians chased out of Ukraine never to return.
Fascists and Tankies can fantasise about an entente cordiale with a China and its economy going down the sh*tter, but its a schoolboy wet dream that will never come to pass.
Foget your reset of Minsk, you need this to sink in: Europe, the US, and assorted Western orientated countries like Japan and Australia (everyone that matters economically basically) are going to strangle the Putinist project.
They didn't start it, but by God will they finish it. The sooner you learn to live with it, the sooner you can come down from your juvenile sub-student union perch and into reality.
Those Chinese munitions may have been sold to the Russians via the North Koreans.
@mcsean2163 .
So basically ukraine looses the east of the country and Crimea and they can never join Nato .
What kind of deal is that ?
Putin wins
Nobody could stop the Chinese selling the arms but they could come under stricter sanctions. If Chinese arms keep turning up it shows a tighter alliance than previously thought
Back in March they had an opportunity but currently their stated goal is to retake Crimea.
If they dialed it down a notch and suggested the following:
Ask European leaders like Macron, Draghi and even Michael Martin to put those terms to Putin. It would likely be very hard to get such an agreement but with global famine and nuclear holocaust on the horizon maybe it wouldn't be the worst idea to change tack.
What could Russia do?
Both would require lots of European diplomacy to get such a deal through. I can't imagine the USA helping in any way with the democrats in charge as they really really hate Russia (before anyone attacks me I generally prefer the democrats except for their aggressive anti Russian foreign policy which seems to cause big problems like Ukraine, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, etc.)
That's where I see the opportunity to end the war.
Maybe the Russian's could make a small concession on the Minsk line to appease Ukraine. Crimea which was gifted to Ukraine by USSR is predominantly ethnic Russian so not seeing the Russian's give that away. There are various concerns with the 2014 Maiden Revolution which various commentators have raised. It would be nice to see Russia getting smaller. Maybe Ukraine/ Russia could agree to instantiating a buffer state in East Ukraine and Crimea.
I don't think Russia or Ukraine would be happy be at least the war would end and famine in the global south be prevented and nuclear holocaust averted.
For anyone thinking the nuclear threat is a joke.
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/
What are the implications of this? Surely China isnt forbidden from selling arms to Russia?
I don't think the average Muscovite is travelling to Europe for holidays much anymore and it's been a direct consequence of the war, especially for city dwellers of European Russia, that the country has been cut off in some ways from direct interaction with the West. However, supposing that young urban Russians can tolerate that situation long term, the supply of ignorant young men from rural settlements in the far east of Russia is not inexhaustible. 75 percent of Russia's population lives west of the Urals and 75 percent of their population also lives in cities or towns. If Putin mobilises, he's going to have to draw more from places and people which aren't so easily kept in the dark about what's really going on and places and people where joining the army isn't their sole promise of a better life. People to whom life isn't quite as cheap, and that'll be problematic for Putin.
That's if it even gets to that point. There is already notable public dissent against the war within Russia. Because Russia is a place where it pays to train both in mortuary science and double glazing, it leads me to believe that the true public opinion of the war in Russia is significantly more downcast than official polls would say and it will come to a point where the welling resentment against Putin will lead to his downfall. I think Putin knows that, deep down, that he cannot just prosecute this war as long as he wants.
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