Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

brokenangel · 07-09-2022 04:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585157#Comment_119585157

What Blanch said was since the election the percentage support for FF/FG hasn't really changed. The increase in SF has come from them taking votes from other parties.

It was clear in the last election why they lost votes, everyone said it at the time, it was a revolt election. It didn't matter how good or bad the policies and manifesto from SF was people just voted for them.

This is old news

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585040#Comment_119585040

MM won't be the leader of FF come next election. He could tell everyone they are going to partner with PBP for the next election and it won't make a blind bit of difference. New leader, new direction

FrancieBrady · 07-09-2022 04:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585137#Comment_119585137

Well, I see a lot more than SF members who have an issue with how it was done.

Of course we can pretend it was normal politics, but it wasn't.

I think it will factor into the next GE/formation of government and as shown even he most vociferous in FF seem to think it will also, and have modified their position.

07-09-2022 04:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585237#Comment_119585237

Well, I see a lot more than SF members who have an issue with how it was done.

As I said, they seem to be put out by the fact that they were unable to form a govt so no surprise they had an issue with the parties that could. That being said, it was 2 years ago.

Of course we can pretend it was normal politics, but it wasn't.

It literally was. Partnership talks were held, some parties agreed some stuff, other parties didn't. Those that did, formed a govt. This is literally how most of our govts are formed so I've no idea what you're referring to but by all means, clarify what you mean by it not being normal politics

FrancieBrady · 07-09-2022 04:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585272#Comment_119585272

I'm not going to labour the point. If you think it was normal, go ahead. Many don't and that will increase if there is a repeat.

How long FF and FG can keep it up is open to debate. I don't see a way they can repeat it without further damage. Their vote share has been in a downward spiral for a long time now, from a high of 86% to just over 40%.

That can easily continue.

Brucie Bonus · 07-09-2022 04:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585204#Comment_119585204

So every election is a revolt vote. Otherwise we'd see the same results each time.

SF are now a viable third option. I'd expect them to do as well if not better in the next election.

07-09-2022 04:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585344#Comment_119585344

I'm not going to labour the point. If you think it was normal, go ahead. Many don't and that will increase if there is a repeat.

The mind boggles but if you don't want to elaborate thats up to you, but it also applies that if you aren't willing to explain the point, then you can't use the point as a way to explain anything, just saying

is_that_so · 07-09-2022 04:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585237#Comment_119585237

I don't see how they can be annoyed. The public vote basically gave the Dail a three way dead heat. Ideally parties can hammer out a deal for government but not if they are just incompatible on policies. Every party or group has its red lines and we've seen multiple elections in some countries due to such failures to form a government.

Furze99 · 07-09-2022 04:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119584813#Comment_119584813

I don't understand this - you seem to think that FF/FG/Lab/Greens/PBP/SD and whoever else will all come 'under pressure' after future elections if SF win most seats.

Who exactly is going to exert this pressure? Yes SF can complain in the media that no one will play ball with us. But that only goes so far.

SF voters might complain but they'll be outnumbered and it is a democracy. The only sure fire route is an overall majority or close to it.

FrancieBrady · 07-09-2022 04:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585416#Comment_119585416

What's to elaborate on? If you want to ignore the facts - there was a lot of disquiet at the time - that's up to you.

07-09-2022 05:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585484#Comment_119585484

So? That doesn't mean anything untoward was done.

Unless you have actual facts that say otherwise.

Sleepy · 07-09-2022 05:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585157#Comment_119585157

Losing votes doesn't necessarily mean that all those votes were picked up by anyone else. A lot of traditional FF / FG voters just didn't vote in the last election. They couldn't bring themselves to back "their" (or more realistically, their grandfather's) party's current leadership but that doesn't mean they'll have been able to stomach voting for SF.

dxhound2005 · 07-09-2022 05:04PM

The last election which produced an overall majority was 1977. FF increased their seats from 65 to 84 out of 148. That was on the foot of their Manifesto to abolish Rates, (the combined Property Tax, Bin Charges and Water Charges which are still in place in the North). They said the shortfall in local government funding would be made up from central taxation. But in a very short number of years it led to the Tax marches which dwarfed anything seen in the more recent Water protests. Average wage workers were paying 60% PAYE.

Sinn Fein have promised to abolish the Property Tax. But learning from history they should also abolish Bin Charges and the remaining Water charges. This is what is popular with the "Squeezed Middle" voters and will get them the overall majority.

07-09-2022 05:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585511#Comment_119585511

Getting rid of property tax would be so thick, its literally one of the fairest applications of tax in our system

FrancieBrady · 07-09-2022 05:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585430#Comment_119585430

Well that would be fine if the 'red lines' were real. But they weren't. As this article agrees, Martin flirted with the idea of doing a deal when he thought the numbers suited him, on the night of the election.

As the votes were counted Micheál Martin momentarily wavered in his determination not to coalesce with Sinn Féin.

One more election cycle and Martin gone - I don't think they'll waver next time out TBH.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/07/15/fianna-fail-and-fine-gael-made-a-disastrous-mistake-coalescing-in-2020/

10 years ago or even less, if somebody told you that FF and FG would coalesce they'd be laughed out of the room. Things change.

Brucie Bonus · 07-09-2022 05:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585508#Comment_119585508

While we don't know if that's the case, we know FG lost a lot and SF gained a lot. The options are, they went to SF or as you say they didn't vote FG that time and a load of new voters went with SF. I don't find that very likely.

blanch152 · 07-09-2022 05:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585484#Comment_119585484

What disquiet?

I didn't come across any disquiet. The people made a democratic decision to give FF, FG and the Greens a working overall majority, and you are telling me that people were disquieted about it? Do they believe in democracy? If they don't that explains it. If they do believe in democracy, then they don't understand mathematics.

After the next election, SF won't have an overall majority. Once again, they will be required to be courteous to other politicians and genuinely negotiate and compromise in order to form a government. They seem singularly incapable of that, so the only party to blame if SF are not in government are SF. Stamping your feet and crying that you got the most votes is not the way to attract coalition partners.

Sleepy · 07-09-2022 05:33PM

I find it much more likely that SF managed to get votes from angry young men and women who'd never voted before than to believe that SF managed to turn voters who were previously supporters of a party who at best see them as misguided fools and at worst see them as murderers and terrorists.

FrancieBrady · 07-09-2022 05:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585637#Comment_119585637

This is rubbish.

They did not make a decision to give those specific parties a mandate. 😁😁

The electorate gives a mandate for any party or group of party's to negociate a coalition. That gives a government a democratic mandate.

Coalescing for the first time in the history of the state and excluding a party with the largest mandate of all caused many to claim they were clinging to power (aka - disquiet)

As I said if you want to be in denial about that - go ahead. I don't see how you can criticise the claims and then in the next breath claim they were not made.

brokenangel · 07-09-2022 05:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585511#Comment_119585511

Property tax is a tax break for the rich. Any party pushing to get rid of it hasn't a clue in my opinion.

Plus the "squeezed middle" don't want rid of it. We had one person on boards shouting about getting rid of LPT, one question and he/she clearly had no idea what is was, how it was calculated etc.

brokenangel · 07-09-2022 05:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585692#Comment_119585692

This article summed up the mood of the country at the time.

It was a running joke that SF supporters seemed to think 24% was a majority and they should be automatically put into government.

So trying to say anything other is incorrect.

https://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2020/02/17/24-of-electorate-that-voted-sinn-fein-under-impression-100-of-nation-voted-for-party/

Podge_irl · 07-09-2022 05:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119584813#Comment_119584813

Well this is the complicated thing about politics. Many people may feel it was not handled well, and I can understand a desire to appeal to all people, but ultimately they are fundamentally wrong so I'm not really sure what you want. Perhaps those who were uneasy deserve to be ignored for failing to understand our democratic system. That or we educate them, but I suspect they wouldn't be responsive to that either.

Brucie Bonus · 07-09-2022 05:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585673#Comment_119585673

We have a huge amount of floating voters. Most people aren't tied to any party.

Podge_irl · 07-09-2022 05:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585692#Comment_119585692

I'm not in denial about this, I'm aware the claims were made, I just think those people should be ignored as they don't remotely understand our democratic system. What can you realistically do in the face of that?

Ultimately, the "disquiet" was basically entirely from those who voted for SF so why would FF/FG/G/Lab/anyone else care?

FrancieBrady · 07-09-2022 05:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585673#Comment_119585673

REDC's analysis of the data seems to suggest that FG are losing votes to SF

It leaves Fine Gael in a very difficult position. Clearly, their support is under severe pressure. And whereas, Fianna Fáil supporter’s stronghold is chiefly among older age groups, Fine Gael’s support actually spanned across the age groups. In the past the party did well among younger voters, perhaps due to goodwill from the change referendums that were held and passed?

But now, those younger voters have moved away to Sinn Fein and to the Green Party. So Fine Gael finds itself in a position where it’s being attacked on many levels, from Fianna Fáil among older age groups, from Sinn Féin younger age groups and from the Green Party.

General Election 2020: Younger Voters Flock to Sinn Féin - RedC Research & Marketing

brokenangel · 07-09-2022 06:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585347#Comment_119585347

Is this really a question? not sure what you are saying

Are you trying to say you did not know 2020 was a revolt vote?

FrancieBrady · 07-09-2022 06:22PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585812#Comment_119585812

The only GE that isn't a 'revolt' vote is one where the incumbents get another majority.

What was unusual about 2020 was the party in power was third in the popular vote and still managed to stay in power.

blanch152 · 07-09-2022 06:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585692#Comment_119585692

The people did give those parties a mandate, they voted for them.

This government despite two of the biggest crises in the history of the state, are within a few small percentage points of their performance in the last election. That tells a lot.

If the leading politicians in SF ever grow up and learn that politics isn't about those who shout the loudest, then they might have a chance of getting into power.

brokenangel · 07-09-2022 06:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585881#Comment_119585881

no how the government was formed is standard practise.

That’s not a revolt vote

markodaly · 07-09-2022 06:29PM

One of the biggest issues with SF and their new found popularity is that if they do get into the hot seats, their voters being of the more populist kind will want instant change and results. Once SF can match those expectations, they will be in trouble.

FrancieBrady · 07-09-2022 06:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585910#Comment_119585910

The did not give 3 specific parties a mandate. Fact.

Implicit in all our votes is a mandate to any party or independent the right to negociate a coalition.

That's it, you don't mandate a specific set of parties, which is what you claimed here.

The people made a democratic decision to give FF, FG and the Greens a working overall majority

A mandate was also given to other possible coalitions.

Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

Comments