Putin and Xi to hold "serious",meeting next week
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/07/russia-ukraine-war-liz-truss-pledges-full-backing-to-ukraine-un-finds-extensive-damage-to-nuclear-plant-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-63188f108f082daedc5f5a69#block-63188f108f082daedc5f5a69
Russia is still the mother ship for many Socialists and when it is not that it is just old style an enemy of the West is a friend of ours.
Would be somewhat ironic if it’s the winter that finally kills off the Russian invasion this year having always been their saviour in the past when they were invaded.
Ukraine is considering shutting down its Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant for safety reasons, and is worried about the reserves of diesel fuel used for backup generators, according to Kyiv’s top nuclear safety expert.
I'm a bit surprised to see so many gains reported over there so soon. I had fully expected to only see meaningful gains around Kherson, but they really seem to be making a push for it over there too.
The videos so far seem to mostly show the Ukrainians calmly strolling into these villages. It could be there's been a hard fight that we are not shown, but the tone of this suggests that the Russians are pulling back. Either they can't maintain their line (due to logistics or who knows..) or they are trying to draw out the Ukrainians. Either way, I hope they are being cautious. This looks like a rout, but it mightn't be one.
I said something similar only a few days ago and got laughed at
Xi's not going to be in any mood to do anything for Russia between now and his coronation on October 16th. Even beyond that, he'll be wary for fear of getting sanctioned. The Chinese property market appears to be in a bad way so they don't need any more economic headaches right now.
TBF in this war some things that looked absolutely laughable came true very quickly, biggest among them the idea that Ukraine would ever have been able to do what it's doing right now.
Please continue to translate. We've only a handful of people with the ability at the moment and it's almost always been interesting, the content you've posted.
AHHH! Don't jinx it!!
You don't mention *Christmas* when trying to predict the end of the war Bass! History is full of examples, it's almost an unwritten rule. I would be delighted if it were to come to pass as you described, but there is plenty still at play. Hope is great...but you gotta temper it.
I doubt they are drawing out the Ukrainians for some sort of counter-stroke. Ukraine would have access to a constant feed of accurate and high-level intel from supporting countries and probably know exactly what the current Russian positions and capabilities are.
Doesn't mean fighting is easy, but they would be aware of build ups and impending offensives or pushes, locally and more broadly.
TBH it's a bit tongue in cheek. I doubt if it will be that fast. However I would expect serious territorial gains in the next month. Maybe even isolation of the Northern and Southern sections of the Russian army. That would leave Crimea dependent again on the bridge for supplies
PR at home for both, important international partner and all that. China will make the right noises but apart from maybe picking up some oil is unlikely to help out in other ways.
All the prorussian posts are readily available on twitter and elsewhere nobody on here is actually translating Russian posts.
It's all copy and paste
China will tread carefully, inscrutably and look after their own international trade interests and domestic issues. Chinese property has been in trouble for many years, middle classes getting no returns on state savings and thus investing in apartments in new built cities that are like ghost towns. The Celtic Tiger property collapse on steroids with ghost cities rather than ghost estates.
Putin is going after grain shipments again,he wants to decide who gets Ukrainian grains.
Meanwhile in Kherson another village liberated, they look like they are getting closer to the river...
Ukraines predictions 50000 killed,150000 wounded and 1000 POWs
https://www.minusrus.com/en
US/UK intelligence says 80000 casualties both killed and wounded
Hard to say in a war but that that russia is suffereing extremely high losses ,no doubt
Ukrainian forces conducted a counterattack in Kharkiv Oblast near Balakliya that likely drove Russian forces back to the left bank (north side) of the Severskyi Donets and Serednya Balakliika rivers on September 6. Ukrainian forces likely captured Verbivka (less than 3 km northwest of Balakliya) on September 6. Geolocated footage posted on September 6 shows Ukrainian infantry in eastern Verbivka (less than 3 km from Balakliya).Multiple Russian sources acknowledged Ukrainian gains in Verbivka and reported that Russian forces demolished unspecified bridges in Balakliya‘s eastern environs to prevent further Ukrainian advances.Images posted on September 6 also show a destroyed Russian bridge over the Serednya Balakliika River—a geographic feature behind which the Russian front line in this sector likely lies. Social media users reported that Russian forces withdrew from checkpoints six kilometers west of Balaklia on September 6.
Russian forces likely no longer maintain their previous positions in Bairak and Nova Husarivka (just south of Balakliya on the right bank of the Seversky Donets River). Russian forces likely abandoned Bayrak and Nova Husarivka in late August. Images posted on August 30 show that Russian forces blew the bridge over the Seversky Donetsk River near Bayrak on an unspecified date.Bridge demolition activity indicates a planned Russian withdrawal. Ukraine’s General Staff reported on September 6 that Russian forces conducted air strikes against Bayrak, indicating that Ukrainian forces may have advanced in the area.
Russia’s deployment of forces from Kharkiv and eastern Ukraine to Ukraine’s south is likely enabling Ukrainian counterattacks of opportunity. The September 6 Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv was likely an opportunistic effort enabled by the redeployment of Russian forces away from the area to reinforce Russian positions against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast. Obituary data on Russian servicemen indicates that Russia deployed elements of the 147th Artillery Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army to Kherson Oblast no earlier than late August. This is the first time ISW has observed elements of Russia’s elite 1st Guards Tank Army operating in southern Ukraine. Elements of the 147th previously fought in Bucha in Kyiv in March and elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army were active primarily along the Kharkiv Axis after the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv.
There were signs a week or so back that the Russians had pulled a significant amount of troops back from around the Izium direction, likely to reinforce Kherson or help with the push from Donetsk. They went from a static assaults out of the South of there to literally abandoning one village which Ukraine just walked into. It's now looking like they've left themselves thin in many more places from Izium up to the Kharkiv front. The perceived pace of progress there is a little quicker than I'd be comfortable with but we'll see when the dust settles what's really going on.
Shevchenkove for example, which is where I'm seeing (as usual unconfirmed) reports of battles now is only 20 miles from Kupiansk.
"Russian forces likely no longer maintain their previous positions in Bairik and Nova Husarivka".
Nova Husarivka...
We mustn't get too excited with all these villages being liberated. This village is only 10km inside where the Kherson front line has been since the start of the invasion.
https://liveuamap.com/ (use the time feature)
Even though it's in Kherson Oblast, I think it's 200km north east of Kherson itself. If Ukraine continues to progress at this rate, it will be Kherson in which they will celebrate Christmas, not Sebastopol. Ukraine is so big; it would be easy to deduce an incorrect rate of progress by considering it on Ireland's scale.
The liberated villages being reported in Kharkiv are only 3-4 km beyond the established front lines, with 150-200km further to go to the Russian border.
Also, although the Dnipro is an asset to Ukraine while trying to clear the right bank, it will be an asset to the Russians in defending the left bank next year and beyond.
Seeing 1964 on a shell casing would be a bigger cause for optimism I think. Wars are won with logistics.
This could be fake of course but interesting if true.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The document leaked from RUS MinFin says that by AUG 28, 361.4B RUB has been paid to families of KIA soldiers, 7.4M per one. Dividing would give 48838 confirmed dead. This does not include those MIA, killed separatists and WIA. Thus, UKR estimate may well be an UNDERSTATEMENT. <a href="https://t.co/zDn1pqkyav">pic.twitter.com/zDn1pqkyav</a></p>— MTÜ Vaba Ukraina (@SvenSalumets) <a href="https://twitter.com/SvenSalumets/status/1567446119596040192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 7, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Oops!Could'nt find the edit button.
Its going better than expected
The ultimate measure of who is winning is who is taking ground - even if that is not the main objective. At 50,000 dead and 2 injured for every death that is 150,000 dead/injured. This would mean the entire invading force has been defeated in 6 months. Which is astonishing, even if you water down these numbers. If this performance does not deserve respect and support from the west I don't know what does.
With the limited artillery support,armoured support and air support Ukraine have in the offensive i would take my hat off for the gains they are making.
They have been talking for a while about a deficit of Russian troops. If they fall below a certain level the Russians will cave in. That might be just what is happening-
Time to send in the Men In White Coats-
Napoleon XIV: 'They're coming to take me away' - YouTube
If Ukraine are, ultimately, successful in banishing the Russian army from their territory I just know that the pro-Russian cheerleaders will say things like "Well it was really NATO - anyone would have won if they had that kind of support".
Well, they can tell that to the Afghan army, who, with years of western training and modern weaponry fell apart almost immediately, when serious pressure was put on them.
The character, bravery and ingenuity shown by the Ukrainians, in this conflict, has been a thing to behold and holds an unflattering mirror up to the Russian army, given their shared history.
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