"Imagine if everything they say about trump is true and half the country still hates your policies enough to tolerate it".
It's way less than half the country that supports Trump though. Just their messed up system gives one party more of a say in the national vote due to the electoral college nonsense which makes it appear closer than it actually is.
I believe that since 1992 the Republicans have only won the popular vote once. Every other time the Democrats had more votes, and that despite it being thought they are less likely to bother to turn out and vote in the first place.
I'd agree with you for the most part regarding the amount of voters who'll vote for Trump. After all, he got about 75m votes in 2020 and that was in the midst of his shambolic handling of a pandemic which was killing hundreds of thousands of Americans.
But given what happened Jan 6th, the investigations into same, and now the classified documents stuff, I really can't see how he could ever attract any additional voters, at the very least not enough to replace the amount he's likely already lost. He'd probably still easily get 65m+ votes, not just from his own fanbase but there are plenty who will always be GOP voters regardless of who the candidate is or how much they believe Trump should be investigated/charged or even that he shouldn't run again. If he's the candidate, they'll vote for him.
But if Biden or whoever the Dem nominee is can keep those swing states close enough, there's more chance Trump loses votes in those states than gains any. There's even a chance he might lose one or two of the close states that he won in 2020.
Of course a lot of that can also be influenced by voting rights, polling locations etc, and how the GOP might try skew those things in their favour if they take the House in the midterms.
There was a poster in the runup to the 2020 election who kept pointing to the bookies' odds on a Trump victory as evidence of a pending Trump victory.
yeah and quite tedious it was.
Bookies especially this far out are a terrible metric to use.
Isn't it funny that it's the trump acolytes who are the ones quoting odds this far out, and we wonder how do any of the begging letters from trump work? It's almost as if they've no financial acumen at all
Was that drunk monkey? I remember that poster claimed to have bet on Trump and was going through the whole gamut of mental gymnastics in the days and weeks following the election, hoping that they would still be paid somehow.
Actually, there were a couple of really classic meltdowns from Trump shills on the election thread in the 48 hours from where it became apparent that Biden had it won.
Is... Is he turning orange too?
Is this referring to me by any chance
From a bookie point of view, if be wary of a third candidate - maybe Cheney - splitting the Rep vote.
This far out is impossible to predict a winner - anything could happen between now and then. Especially with Trump.
A tale of two tweets
You can’t win the general with Trump, you also can’t win the primary with Trump.
That was someone clutching at straws and just using anything to try and deny a Tump loss.
To any fools and horses.
Bookies. Ain’t. Sh!t.
I'm referring to anyone who uses bookie odds as some kind of clairvoyance. They're in no way accurate as proven many times before
The Republican civil war is hilarious. Its what makes bookies/polls hilarious. Like both Loomey Loops and Webster voters would have ticked "Republican" but theres two different Republican beliefs now.
Have to be fair, here, and think that Liz Cheney running as a 'rogue' candidate in the GE against Trump would have a negligible effect on Trump. What was that guy's name who ran against Trump in Utah before? One sec.... Ah, yes - Even McMullin. Per Wikipedia -
McMullin received 21.5% of the vote in Utah, taking third place in that state behind Trump and Clinton.[8] Nationally, he received 0.53% of the popular vote.
Not a bad showing for an independent, but ultimately not of any real consequence. Raised his own profile a bit, I suppose you could say.
I could understand Cheney running against Trump just out of principle, just to say that there's someone who wants to stand up for the relatively sane values of the Republican party pre-2016, but who'd vote for her? The potential caveat of her running against Trump is the risk of her not splitting the pro-Trump vote, but instead siphoning off the Anti-Trump one, which Biden (if he runs for a 2nd term) would need to in strong force again. She'd be pretty sick if she inadvertently ended up helping Trump get back in.
In fairness, Cheney has a much higher countrywide profile than that guy in Utah, but in general you're right. She's too conservative a Republican to run on a Democratic ticket, and would find it very hard to compete with the two main party candidates countrywide, mostly down to fundraising. Most of the Republican party is engulfed in the Trump cult and Democrats wouldn't vote for her in large enough numbers due to policy issues.
I think her best role might be to work as a visible campaigner against Trump, to try to siphon off the moderate Republican and independent vote in the direction of the Democratic candidate. He can never win without the independent/swing voter and that's where she can damage him.
I'd like to see her run in the primaries and debate TFG. That'd be epic. But, I really doubt TFG runs again - he'd guarantee a Democratic party victory, imagine the 'you vote for Trump, he'll pardon himself' campaign ads. GQP would be nuts to nominate him, but of course, they were nuts in 2016, too.
He wouldn't have the balls to debate her.
In one sense you're very correct - Trump hasn't got the balls or even the capability to do traditional debate, but he doesn't come to debates to debate, which is the thing. He comes to just sound off, to verbally insult and hit his opponents with a scattergun of sh*t. And you know the old adage - don't argue with idiots because they'll just bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.
You love to see it.
True, but she doesn't have to do much - just so a few states from swinging.
Grand. I'm far from a Trump acolyte though.
There's zero chance (unfortunately) of seeing Trump and Cheney on a debate stage together. The GOP would prevent Cheney from running, rather than let that happen. I saw something about them bringing in a rule that any candidate must agree to support the eventual winner before being allowed into any debates, so that'd mean Cheney would have to agree to support the likely winner, the Donald. She'd never sign up to that, which would be ideal for the GOP cabal.
He's really taken on the Trump mantle. Vile little man.
He doesn't wear it well. Under pressure he folds like a fish.
I hear in a 3 way election, Biden beats DeSantis handedly, who beats Trump handedly.
Cheney is loved by middle of the road Dem voters so yeah she would hurt Biden a little more , but tbh if it came down to it doubt she would do much bar raise a lot of money and go on MSNBC a lot.
Both parties would consider her a spoiler and if you think her and fellow never trumpers are relevant when it comes to the GOP base anymore, well erm they are not.
Any such rule is hardly enforceable and likely wouldnt stand up to a legal argument, you cant force someone to support someone in perpetuity if they win an election.
"you cant force someone to support someone in perpetuity if they win an election."
Someone ask Lindsey Graham if that's true...
In Lindsay Grahams case its more about being forced to support trump because Trump via Putin has proof of the thing everyone knows about #kompromat
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