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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,635 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Anyone looking at properties for sale and rent will see that the increase in properties available for buying has increased roughly by the amount of properties for rent decreasing. This is because small landlords are running for the hills with our outlandish policies and taxation on rents and putting their property up for sale. Watch numbers for sale go down over the next 12 months. We are on course for about 300k new PPS numbers this year in this country with Irish people only accounting for 42k and the rest from immigration inward. People are coming here for jobs, the war and for our welfare rates and we have not got the property infrastructure to support this on an ongoing basis. New builds have also dropped sharply over the summer. Anyone thinking prices will soften need to re think there strategy. If anything our governments introduction of lending FTBS of up to 30% of the mortgage will further increase prices as can be seen from what happened in the UK when they implemented the same scheme. No drop for at 5 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    They have way more council housing than us and higher occupancy rates due to council extra room charge. We have a higher home ownership rate



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,809 ✭✭✭hometruths


    That makes sense, and suggests our problem is more one of inefficient use of existing housing stock rather than insufficient housing stock.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 513 ✭✭✭getoutadodge


    "We are on course for about 300k new PPS numbers this year in this country with Irish people only accounting for 42k and the rest from immigration inward."


    Jeez is this accurate? Sources?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    That's just not true at all. The "housing shortage" was/is a global problem.

    Last November New Zealand were talking about a housing shortage and not having enough stock. Couple months later it changed to an oversupply.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 176 ✭✭Eclectic Econometrics


    Is there statistical information kept, accessible by the public, on what happens to inward immigration upon arrival and for a few years after?

    So for example 50% move in with family/friends on arrival but after 12 months 20% of those are in house share, 75% in the own rented dwelling and 5% are owner occupiers etc.

    I am assuming this is a long shot as, for EG, the UK barely kept track of who was entering the country until recently.


    The other question I had was in relation to house building costs. I see quite a few posts talking about material costs. However I have also seen that demand for houses in both the US and China is now falling off a cliff. Is the demand for those materials predominantly driven by housing, so no other competing industries using those materials, and if so then wouldn't a slowdown in the US and China bring housebuilding costs down in Ireland?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,635 ✭✭✭fliball123



    It would be hard to gather this information on the movements of people once they are in Ireland, we will know when they leave/die/or have a kid but on where they dwell it can be hard to track, even the CSO who try to count the amount of bodies in each dwelling to get the census of population will be wrong as there will be a certain amount of people in some properties which will be renting illegally so this figure will not be captured.


    You are right demand is falling in both countries that you outline and also in other countries like Oz and yeap hopefully house building will become cheaper as supply issues from Covid and the war in the Ukraine ends (hopefully sooner rather than later) But both China and the US have more habitable housing per head of population than Ireland does, we are woefully understocked with regards to livable dwellings and adding 300k this year means we need well over 100k new houses / or other dwellings brought back into the property portfolio just to suit this surge of numbers. If this trend continues and it will as Ireland has 2 very attractive carrots dangling for people on the outside looking in and that's good jobs in IT/Pharma/MNCs and possible the most generous welfare system that money can buy so why would you not come.

    There will be some demand quelled due to interest rates rising yet what is the alternative renting is more expensive and I reckon that demand will be offset by new demand with the introduction of the "help to buy" and the "affordable housing scheme". This is going to push prices up as can be seen in the UK where a similar scheme pushed up prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭Ben D Bus


    Net figures are what matters. People are constantly coming & going from the country. And they don't automatically cancel their PPS when they leave. I'll say with absolute certainty there aren't an additional 300,000 people looking for work in the country. Although Ukraine has certainly caused a blip.

    Finally, Gript as a source 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,635 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well surely they are getting the info from somewhere and true they don't cancel their PPS when they leave. It will be interesting to get a figure of net emigration inwards at the end of the year and if anything the Ukraine have pushed more people to Ireland for sure but there is still a staggering % of non Irish and non Ukrainian in that 300k figure



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭Ben D Bus


    Honestly, I don't know the answer. But I immediately discount that horrid website as a source of truth. 300k may be real but when it's from Gript I immediately assume it's being twisted and misrepresented because they don't like foreigners, especially when they're not Catholics. I'll stop now before this drifts off topic.

    But there will NOT be 300K new arrivals looking for jobs or new homes this year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,635 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well time will tell on the figures see what it is at the end of the year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,093 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    Even if it was true, RTE probably wouldn’t report it if it didn’t fit their narrative. Pretty much all news is biased these days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 964 ✭✭✭EarWig




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,117 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    I'm not a landlord but these proposals seem absolutely mental.

    Subscriber only so for those who can't see it, basically two main points jump out in SF's plan;

    1. After six months, tenants will have permanent right of tenancy. Even if the landlord wants to move in himself or move his kids into the house he cannot, no matter how much notice he gives.
    2. If the landlord decides to sell up, he can do so - but the buyer is obliged to inherit the tenants, the house cannot be sold with vacant possession. And who on earth would sign up to that?

    So what you'll see is either a) private landlords getting out of dodge or b) leasing their properties long-term to local authorities.

    Either way, I'm not sure how this helps the private rental market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    oh theres no question sf will implement polices to further this train wreck, im expecting this to continue into the next decade



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    No sign of softening in Wicklow.

    asking 995

    PPR

    29/10/2021

    €900,000.00

    21 PRIORY AVE, EDEN GATE, DELGANY, A63AK10

    Over 10% higher in less a year if asking achieved.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...yes the average earner is definitely bidding a million for homes!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28 kayfabe



    did you not know that Ireland is a unique market with a new paradigm of endless demand / low supply 😏



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  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    as soon as there is any indication of that happening there’ll be a surge of evictions like have never been seen before. Both legal and illegal. I’d expect locks to be changed while tenants are out and all sorts of carry on. Because the PRTB will be snowed under by a deluge of complaints, so hearings will be delayed, and private landlords would rather take the hit and the fine than lose control of their property

    it would be absolute carnage for tenants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28 kayfabe


    So far I like what I see when it comes to burning it all to the ground

    #1 Stops the "excuses" to get tenants out which ends up being re-advertised at higher rates

    #2 Gives tenants who have been damned to a life or renting security of tenure and the ability to actually set down some kind of roots



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You’re right in theory, in the long term when all rental stock is owned by institutional funds who want long security of tenure anyway, like elsewhere in Europe. And the private landlord is long ran for the hills.

    but first you’ll have to expect that a large proportion of those renting from private landlords are immediately evicted and those rental properties disappear from the market. That would be fine if there were enough institutional stock to pick up the slack, but there is not, and won’t be for a while.

    in the short to medium term you’ll get a surge of homelessness and rents going through the roof (and property funds laughing all the way to the bank)

    it’s a fine long term aspiration. But it couldn’t happen immediately. I doubt it could even transition to that state during a single electoral cycle



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28 kayfabe


    But dont landlords give out about the inability to evict people for not paying rent etc? if something like this was coming in i think you would see tenants brazening out any attempted eviction knowing security of tenure will be their reward.



  • Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And in reality:

    1) The new law would come with a bedding in period, during which there would be droves of evictions and landlords leaving the market

    2) Tenants now have a more difficult time finding somewhere to live

    Though I'd be shocked if this came to pass



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,809 ✭✭✭hometruths


    That’s astonishing. That’s surely in excess of 2007 prices for that location?

    When financial markets get toppy and then collapse people often look back in hindsight at the mad prices paid for shares/takeovers etc and pinpoint one or two in particular that should have been a red flag.

    i’ll stick my neck out now and say that this is a red flag!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,166 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    My own experience of buying at the moment is suggesting that a slow down is coming but the adjustment towards it is going to be gradual.

    Seeing a number of properties going sale agreed after intense bidding wars only to be quietly brought back on to the market after the buyers couldn't secure finance. I've seen four houses in one small area go this way in the last fortnight.

    Estate Agents have to take their share of the blame here as they're the ones encouraging this bidding war culture, it's all well and good getting the highest possible price but when people are only bidding at that level to win a bidding war and they can't actually afford to finance the purchase everybody loses.

    As mentioned a while back on this thread, fines need to be imposed on people acting this way as it's creating all sorts of problems in the market. Driving up vendors expectations and keeping genuine buyers out in the cold for extended periods of time.

    The prevailing notion from most EA's I've spoken to is that increased supply will bring prices more in line with reality in time but they're doing nothing to stop this perceived gold rush for vendors in the interim.

    Weeding out he spoofers is an important issue, if you're hoping your aunty Doris is going to give you an extra 20k to buy your house after you bid beyond what you can actually afford you really can't afford it.



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  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    it won’t. It’s unworkable electoral populism of the most blatant kind



This discussion has been closed.
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