How exactly would they take back Crimea without taking the South back?
Yeah, I didn't distinguish between "the South" and "all the South"
Just a few ATACMS will send the message alright.... That hawkeye in the blacksea combined with proper satellite intel will cause havoc with the Russian mindset
Your thought was if Ukraine took back Crimea.
Russia will defend Crimea much more resolutely than they would the Donbas, it's so much more important to them. At best Ukraine will be able to continue to target and blow up important stuff in Crimea from distance. But it will be next year before they can even contemplate crossing the Dnipro. Plus the Crimean population would be hostile to the Ukrainians, more so than the Donbassians.
Are they actually set up to defend it at the moment? The attacks seem to surprise them.
I doubt that the Russian military are surprised that Crimea is being targeted. Especially since they will be bringing in equipment via the Kerch rail bridge. But just because they expected it doesn't mean they can defend against the attacks. Especially since the nature of the attacks remain uncertain.
I wager that bridge is going the have an accident with a chip pan or cigarette. Ukrainians being so good with drones I wager they would have no Issue making an unmanned boat that goes boom. Sure make it look like an old fishing boat.
Agreed, they would definitely create a second Sun before letting the Sevastapol slip away. That would be the red line.
And I don't believe it would take much either. One well-placed HIMARS would be enough to escalate things to uncharted waters...
Satellite images of aftermath of explosions at ammunition depot near Dzhankoi, Crimea
I don't think the Ukrainians believe Crimea is obtainable. This targeting of the peninsula not only hurts the Russians with their supplies and ability to fight in the South but it will come in handy in bargaining during any deal which ends this. I think ultimately the Ukranians will get back what they had prior to Feb 24th.
The problem with that is that if Putin is rewarded with the Donbas he'll have won (albeit at a huge cost to Russia, if not Putin), and he and his successors may try the trick again. Easy for me to say, but Crimea was Ukrainian in name only - so that's not so big an issue. The red line as I see it would be the Donbas. Tell Putin, get your raping, pillaging cannon fodder Russian troops/mercenaries (if there's a difference) out of the Donbas and you can have what's left of Crimea - the Russian fools there are welcome to you and can rot with you and the rest of Russia.
It's annoying how by the time the photos have been Twittered, the resolution has been dumbed down for 3 second phone consumption.
This is how the place looked before the explosion.
Posting a link because if I post a pic Boards will do the same as Twitter.
I am not convinced that that is the correct location. That smoke looks like it's coming from a a very small fire. And as of October 2020, that looks like some kind of derelict factory. Unless it's a completely new warehouse constructed since then by Russia.
I agree totally with you and I hope they can but just can’t see them pushing the Russians out of the Donbas. They will have a heck of a fight getting back that Southern section but you never know, I thought they’d have been overrun in a couple of days, thankfully I was wrong.
They have a better shot at taking that territiory back compared to Crimea, assuming they can push the front south of Kherson and expel the Russians from the Right bank of Dniper. Ukraine still have better local knowledge of that area (that will change over time), and appear to have the advantage of local partisans operating in the various towns down there. Threaten a push into Crimea and the Russians are probably going need to pull troops away from Donbas to protect the far more valuable peninsula.
It would be a slow grind, but I feel that it's not impossible for get all the way back to the pre 2014 border. A lot of that depends on the local attitudes in the Donbass. The Motherland has seen it fit to use them as cannon fodder in this fight and their opinions might start to shift, especially if it is seen that control by Kyiv reopens the world to them compared to the basket case they're stuck with now.
They don't have to go any further south than Kherson in order to fully expel the Russians from the right bank.I think any attempts on the left bank are out of the question from the Kerson side. They'd be more likely to try and push south from Zaporizhzhia where they are already on the left bank. The Dnipro is very big, some of the bridges the Ukainians are rendering unusable to the Russians at Kherson span 900m of water.
Nowhere to be seen on RTE's news website. Not even in the top 15 news worthy stories. If this apathy is reflected right across Europe in the coming weeks then Ukraine is rightly screwed.
Even in the US you can notice the orange buffoon is back across all the networks as the main story, gas prices, hollywood z listers etc... garner more interest than Ukraine's plight. The stories you do see aren't the type Ukraine want to see either 😐️
It might have an impact on popular support for Ukrainian refugees, but I don’t think the fading of the war in public consciousness will have any impact on the flow of money and weapons.
Always hard to know with posts like this.
Look at previous "It's slowly sinking in that this will be a war that goes on for years. Putin or his cronies care not a jot about how they are viewed by the west or a few posters on boards.ie Much like the mafia they will do what is best for them even if it means hundreds of thousands or even a million dead Russians. The real battle Ukraine face is apathy towards their plight from the western leaders. On the ground the general population only care about how it effects their own bottom line and bank balance and this will translate to their leaders eventually and support will melt away for Ukraine"
Is this a genuine assessment or part of the negative campaigning strategy from Russian supporters designed to undermine public support in the EU? Part of an agenda?
Crimea might actually be an easier take back than the Russian bordered Donbas , and optically would be a bigger kick in the nuts for Putin .
Cutting the Kerch bridge and water supplies would go a long way , especially if the Ruskies are emptying out of the place already.
’twill be interesting too see if the delivery of the dozen Migs from the Czechs next month lead to an all out push from Ukraine.
to my mind momentum is really going the right way against, faltering Russia.
Hold on i dropped my caviar and vodka when i seen this weeks cheque from the Kremlin, can you repeat that again. 🙄
It's a genuine concern will you ever cop on with your paranoid nonsense. I suppose RTE must be in Putin's pocket also.
It depends on the spin people put on things. Glass half full/half empty. Modern progressive/Russian boot-licking shill, you know yourself.
Quote from the linked story is as follows.
He claimed the detainees were members of Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is banned in Russia.
The top official in Russian-annexed Crimea has claimed the FSB security service has broken up what he described as a six-person terrorist cell of a banned Islamist
From my own thinking, this is a typical statement that Russian like to knock out... IE: staging arrests off perceived bad guys in order to make themselves look good back home in the Russian media. Russia has been doing staged show trials and court sittings for years in order to give the appearance of control and domination. Would not be a surprise if those arrested were Chechen fighters looking for an easy way into retirement.
Russian FSB reports 6 member of Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami were detained in occupied Crimea
the Crimean plot thickens
Threatening Crimea may be a very savvy strategy for Ukraine.
Russian is probably not yet poised to defend it and they will have a lot of questions to answer if they (the Russians) start bombing the hell out of it in defence.
A diminished viability of Crimea will surely become a bargaining chip.
Perhaps the Ukrainians will launch a WEAK attack on the Kerch Bridge to see what the response is ???
Russia made alot of enemies in Crimea when they invaded.
I wouldnt be surprised if partisan groups are behind the sabotage of airfields in Crimea
Video of a local civilian man being forcibly "recruited" by the army in Luhansk. One wonders if people in the two regions regret ever having anything to do with the fascist Putin regime.
Every single one of your posts is along lines of “no one cares about Ukraine”
I guess the irony of posting that almost daily in one of the most popular threads on this site is too much
interesting enough the Russian propaganda state media can not stop talking about their man in Kremlin either
It's such a clear struggle between right and wrong that it's very unlikely western support will dip. Sure, it's not as prominent in the news now as in the Spring but that's to be expected. People all over the western world are well aware that Ukraine deserves support.
So two blows left to be dealt
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