It certainly brings us closer to a nuclear threat, if it was Ukraine that did this. - like any escalation in this war.
During the cold war, there were many instances where we can close to nuclear war. Mistakes can be made.
Regarding the power plants - Chernobyl had fail safes, as did Fukushima. These two accidents happened because of human error and natural events. How good are the fail safes if the plant is actually being bombed? Operators will be under pressure, mistakes can be made or critical cooling infrastructure could be destroyed. They didn't bomb the plants when they were testing the fail safes.
Those were massive explosions in those videos. Clearly something significant was being hit on the ground - either aircraft or munitions.
Shrapnel damage to a car in the carpark at the airbase.
For sure Russia is not currently winning, and these long range weapons are game changers. so if the Russians are not advancing, or only at a snails pace, then they are losing, and TBH, I think that ultimately Ukraine will win. If the Russian ammo dumps are being destroyed, faster then they can be replaced, there can be only one outcome for them.
It would not surprise me if they keep the aircraft fully loaded out obviously with safeties in. Ukrainians could have got wind of Air to ground mission. With 500lb bombs or bigger. It was some bang. I'm not sure If the Russians use a centralised Ammo storage or several spread out on the facility. But something big went off. Seems a bigger explosion than we have seen in some of the ammo dumps.
lol shrapnel. That looks like a structural steel girder. Some force to shift that. could there have been thermobaric weapons on site ?
Russia Iran have launched a satellite for surveillance on ukraine, could be of big benefit to russia when your looking at how good ukraines intelligence has been so far
As others have said, it's effectively a stalemate at the moment.There's increasing indication that Ukraine is preparing a major push into Russian territory, recent HIMARS/M270 strikes against Russian ammunition and supply dumps, command centres, the bridges across the Dnieper in Kherson as well as today's strike against Nova Fedorivka air base in Crimea seem a lot like "battlefield preparation" strikes to me, but so far, the actual offensive has not kicked off.
It seems like Kherson Oblast might be the focus of any future Ukrainian push. Ukraine has been making small gains there since the spring, and the region is the only Russian bridgehead west of the Dnipro meaning that even before the strikes against the Antonivka bridge and others, Russian troops in Kherson were at the far end of a rather tenuous supply line. Even by "just" pushing the Russians back to the eastern bank of the Dnipro would bring many supply roads from Crimea north towards the Donbas into range of Ukrainian artillery. More crucially though, it would present a massive threat to the North Crimean Canal, a major source of fresh water for Crimea that starts at the Nova Kahovka dam on the Dnipro. Cutting off the canal again would cause significant water shortages on the peninsula. So all in all, a push in Kherson offers a lot of strategic advantages, especially since Russia"s focus appears to remain concentrated on the Donbas, leaving Kherson as a comparatively softer target.
I'd also recommend keeping an eye on the YouTube channel of the Bundesheer, the Austrian Armed Forces. Most of their videos are in German, but every month or so, they publish an English language recap of the developments in Ukraine. These presentations are made by Colonel Markus Reisner, Head of R&D at the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt, Austria's counterpart to the likes of Sandhurst or West Point and are generally really good to catch up on developments:
A new theory tonight is that ammunition storage bunkers were hit precisely by missiles - but this would have had the added bonus of course of blowing up many aircraft and helicopters parked nearby.
Fair enough but that beam if from the event. Looks more like something from WW2 ammo factory going up. There must have been some serious amount of munitions there. I mean If you have that amount of firepower being stored should be off base as the risk to the delivery platforms is stupid. I mean what they could have lost nearly 1bn in planes and helicopters. Advance rader station, Command and control systems. The list goes on. I would have thought modern doctrine would only store a few sorties worth of munitions and more storage risks the Entire base as just seen.
More from the carpark of the airbase.
*Climb the fence ffs and have a look around. 🤣
Therein is the source of Russia's military ineptness. "Modern Doctrine" as you wrote would indeed have been a lot more careful about the storage of explosives and the deployment of assists. A modern military is ideally used like a scalpel, carefully cutting in and getting the job done with as little unnecessary damage as possible. But the Russians don't appear to know how to do that anymore. Their scalpel is a massive bloody hammer that they swing around like a mid thing. It's no surprise that the hammer would eventually hit them in their own damn head.
A modern disciplined military would have been smarter about the storage of weapons. A modern disciplined military would also have been taking the time to actually train their recruits to be more than meat for the grinder, and a modern disciplined military would not have nuked their chances of winning over the local population by raping & murdering them.
If this attack has crippled their southern air forces, all the better. I don't fancy Russia's current abilities of replacing Soviet-era military aircraft.
I be slow climbing the fence as well. He was risking it even leaving the car. Tempers would be frayed. If someone saw you they would be libel to shoot.
Hard to beat Intel on the ground that is seeping back after these attacks. There was more than one dead and five wounded I would say
Russia is a pathetic country. Got their asses handed to them in this war and yesterday trying to pretend this wasn't a massive widespread attack from Ukraine on the airfield. A joke country akin to North Korea.
What I don't understand is why Ukraine are denying involvement in the attack, especially with Zelensky now saying their aim is to take back Crimea. Surely if they have the weapons to do such attacks they'd be saying so loudly, It's a massive morale booster. Or is it some top secret US weapon and they've been told to keep quiet?
No wonder the Russian holidaymakers, if that's who they were, are all fleeing by car. But to where and how do they back to the homeland.
Piece in the Guardian today about the nuclear plant, claiming that Russian authorities were hoping to redirect the output towards Crimea power supply and into Russian grid. That this involves 'destroying' some of the power infrastructure and so on. Curious that the recent disputed claim of shelling at the plant was said to cause damage to power lines. Whole story could be misinformation of course and sounds to be a very crude and dangerous way to go about managing a major power plant. But ties in with events.
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You don't let your enemy see your cards, it's that simple. If you disclose that the attack was carried out by HIMARS or M270 launched ATACMS, Neptun missiles or Ukraine's domestically developed Grim-2 short range ballistic missile, you'll just expose those weapons systems to even more potential reprisal attacks. If you disclose that it was an air strike, it will likely result in increased Russian combat air patrols and a beefing up of air defenses, whilst stating that the attack was a special forces raid will massively increase the risk for the team that conducted the raid and that might very well still be hiding in Crimea, waiting to strike the next target.
By saying nothing, the Russian Forces don't know what they need to defend against. They only know that even far behind the front lines, in areas that Russian Forces and civilians perceive as safe, Ukraine is able to strike seemingly at will. They now need to spread their forces thin trying to cover their own rear, reducing the number of troops that can be sent to the front line. Then there's the psychological aspect. Knowing that your base might just spontaneously explode without warning can't be too good for morale.
putin is just a common thief in a palace.
Do you have any "After" Pics?
I would have completely agreed with you, up until last night.
I sat down to watch the excellent, un-biased, Austrian commander's battlefield analysis and, while it is one month old, ( there is another one due any day now), it is very sobering to watch.
Take away the propaganda from both sides, it seems Ukraine is in a pretty perilous position, with over an estimated 100,000 troops dead ( 50%)and 1000 mechanised units out of action.
Now, this analysis was done just after the HIMAR's were introduced, and only 2 at that, but I'm anxious to see in the latest analysis, exactly what strategic changes Ukraine has conducted in order to launch a counter offensive.
As of the last analysis, Russia definitely had the upper hand.
One or two spectacular strikes will not be enough to win this war, just going on what I watched last night.
Any links to that? Would love to hear a level headed unbiased opinion on how things are going. I know every war has it's propaganda but this one in particular it's off the scales from both sides. Thanks in advance
Strangest piece of shrapnel I've ever seen......
Double weapon....it has happened, so cannot be denied, but questions remain, how did it happen? Who did it? and and what kind of weapons were used??? And most importantly, when and where will it happen again? Sleepless nights ahead in the Russian hierarchy. If they still had tumbrils, they would be rattling around Red square soon.
No sorry I shouldn't of posted it now thinking on it. Its easy to say things and post stuff but without evidence or some like you say after pics it's hard to judge. Tho I say we should see some soon i would hazard a guess.
100,000 dead? Zelenskyy said recently it was 100 per day for a long time but has now reduced to 30 per day???
Where on earth are you getting 100,000 troops dead from? That is grossly off any estimates from basically any source I've seen.
I know that he mentions "50% of our equipment, and even soldiers, lost" but there is absolutely no way he means 50% of the entire professional armed forces dead.
Yeah surely at most that would be 100k dead or wounded - military types often group them both together as "casualties", but there is no way they lost 100k dead.
That would mean between 300k and 1million wounded, as dead:wounded ratios range from 3:1 to as much as 10:1 depending on medical treatment available.
The Russian holidaymakers likely reached Crimea via the Kerch Bridge, and will likely return that way.
This Road/Rail bridge was built after Russia annexed Crimea and it links the Ukrainian peninsula with a bit of the Russian mainland just to the east of it. It is likely the safest option for Russian civilians to reach Crimea (for now). The other "Land Bridge" Russia has managed to carve out of Southern Ukraine doesn't have many direct routes, and is a warzone, making it pretty dangerous to even their own army. That leaves the Kerch Bridge, which long-term is probably going to be a target for attack.
I must question the intelligence of a Russian holidaymaker in going to beaches near military installations, which are not that far away from an active warzone featuring an enemy who claim the very beach you are relaxing on. Boggles the mind. I get that Russian sun-holiday options in Europe are likely curtailed a lot lately, but surely getting a tan isn't this important!
Yes 100k + 200k wounded would put their entire professional army out of action!
I'd say the Ukrainians are not letting on what happened is because if they say the Russians will take defensive actions.
If its long range strikes they move them further like they did with their boats, if it was a "special military operation TM" then they beef up defences around ammo dumps etc and keep their planes close to the theatre of war. In either case, putlers thugs can use the knowledge of what happened to make it harder to happen again.
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