attack at the mouth of the canal feeding Crimea
There is very heavy fighting going on around Avdeevka,Peski and Soledar.
Slightly off topic but if you're interested in China this book is a breathtaking assessment of the environmental situation there. When a Billion Chinese Jump by Jonathan Watts | Books | The Guardian
They captured Paddy Gruzev - or whatever his name is.
I agree. Russia doesn't have to drop a nuclear bomb to cause a nuclear catastrophe, just a regular bomb on that site. I'm not sure how close it is to the Russian border, that's the one thing that might make them hesitate
Something "newsworthy" happened: the dopey basketball player got 9 years in jail. Should occupy public attention for about 5 minutes
What's with the **** music in all these videos?
Devils Advocate.
Is it time to think about giving Putin an off-ramp? I'm not sure if anyone watched the Jordan Peterson rant ( I have a love/hate relationship with the guy and I loath to post the interview here). He spouted an enormous amount of polarised, narrow-minded drivel during the interview but he made one valid point.
The West are pushing for Putin/Russia to lose, at whatever cost. But, to Russia, a paranoid nuclear power, what does that mean. The front looks stagnant at the moment, but let's say Ukraine gets a break through a combination of wearing down the the Russian logistical supply-chain, the depletion of Russian munitions and slowly but surely begins to push Russia right back to the borders of the 2014/15 annexation or even beyond, towards Sevastapol. What happens then. Would we see an already paranoid, ostracised, economically-paralysed Russia resort to the last card that they have to play, a nuclear strike?
There is a theory that certain, logically-inclined and sane-minded military staff would baulk at carrying out any orders pertaining to a strike. However, if the situation became so perilous and grave that even the most reasonable generals are afraid for the well-being of the Motherland, I'm not so sure of any hesitation.
Thoughts?
He has had and continues to have many off-ramps. He can portray whatever the hell he wants a victory at home, such is his power over the country. They have been offered to no effect in the past.
NATO is not engaging directly with his forces. I'm not sure what else can be offered.
I would leave the decision to Ukraine tbh. Provide the intelligence if it looks to be the case but it's their nation.
Putin was given many off ramps even in the early days of the war. He spat in the face of several European leaders.
He' has chosen death for his young men. Let's not be naiive, Putin wants total victory. He'll be granted total defeat.
Yeah this.
At the end of the day only the Ukrainians themselves can decide what outcome is acceptable for them.
Drama. Doesn't always work though.
I'd swear the Ukrainians have some really exotic artillery nobody knows about
I don't think Putin even 'wants' an off ramp. He doesn't seem to give a damn about western opinion or even Russian public opinion. It's difficult to know what motivates him or what saving face would even look like to him.
More Smart munitions I think
Speaking of allowing Putin to save face… has supply of Botox been reinstated?
As things stand, it's unlikely that Russia will be able to conquer the Donbas by Summer's end, and if you're going by the old Irish calendar, that objective has already failed to be met. I don't see how Russia ever gets to Kyiv without a major collapse in Western support for Ukraine and even then Russian military will and means to fight has to be depleted to the point that stretching to, encircling, laying siege to and holding such a large metropolitan area would be tricky even in the event of just fighting dogged Ukrainians with AKs and basements to hide in.
The problem for Putin is that he has so much sunk cost in this war that I don't know if he can declare victory just be taking the Donbas on any time scale because he then has to constantly suppress the information that he's sacrificed tens of thousands of men and burned Russia's bridges with the West for the foreseeable all for the sake of a couple of poxy oblasts. He may think he can suppress that information, but Russia is not North Korea and I've seen enough vox pop Russian channels on Youtube asking Russians on the street about their opinion on the Ukraine war to know that at least some Russians know what's up.
You have to remember, it's been about 20 years since the last major conventional war that has showcased US and western hardware. That's a long time in terms of capability growth. What we're seeing isn't even the top of the line stuff in play.
The nuclear threat has been thrown in since the start. Maybe that wasn't the wisest move as the threat starts to lose it's effect after it's used a few times. The Russians have to be feeling the supply chain problems, both to their troops and back at home. You know more than most how heavily 'the west' are invested in providing intelligence in real time. So a lot of pressure building on that invading force. I don't think Ukraine can move anymore than back to the current pre invasion borders, without losing support. So there are limiting factors?
Anyone hear 'Bailey' on the radio today, what did you make of his scéal?
Seemingly Russian forces are heavily shelling residential areas in Karkiv tonight from across the border in Russia.
This business of just driving the russians back to their border and everything will be grand is not working too well.
Shelling like that has no military utility, it does not give them a single battlefield or territorial advantage using dumb munitions indiscriminately. All they are doing is increasing the likelihood of civilian death.
In one sense, all they are doing is depleting their munitions to no particular end.
I like a lot of Peterson's reasoning but this interview was almost embarrassing. The longer the war goes on the less likely is a nuclear attack. Russia will be so humiliated even a nuclear attack will not heal its wounds.
Excellent quick documentary on Russia's war and the overall global picture. Ian Bremmer, Big Think
Thanks, sounds interesting enough. I already knew China was a dumpster fire from an ecological perspective, but I'm not too well versed in the details. I'll be sure to give this one a look-in.
They have expended a huge amount of shells making pock marks in fields. One Russian soldier complained that they used 'two wagons' of shells firing at nothing because they did not know where the Ukrainians were.
I agree with all that except the bit about suppressing info about the extent of Russian losses. I think many Russians have a reasonable idea of the losses and don't care, just like they've a reasonable idea of how much Ukraine is suffering and don't care. There was an interesting article in the guardian last week about summer in Moscow and how it's as if the war/"special operation" isn't happening, those who care are afraid to talk while the vast majority just aren't interested, no more than most European citizens at this stage, except to the degree it affects them economically.
Putin seems to be doing this largely for his own pathetic, narcissistic reasons while the population just gets on with everyday life.
But yes, he's in a bind: he can't conquer large parts of Ukraine yet he can't settle for a piece of land that his own army have turned to rubble and spin it as a major victory. So how it will end is anyone's guess
Where are you getting all these videos? They are appreciated but It looks weird that all of them have very few views.
Twitter. They have few views because they are only minutes or hours old.
Don't worry, I'm sure Amnesty will be along with another report to tell us that Ukraine should not be defending their cities by placing military equipment near it.
Better yet, maybe they should be the ones providing military advice and equipment to Ukraine. All those thoughts and prayers would surely push the Russians back across the border.
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