Devils Advocate.
Is it time to think about giving Putin an off-ramp? I'm not sure if anyone watched the Jordan Peterson rant ( I have a love/hate relationship with the guy and I loath to post the interview here). He spouted an enormous amount of polarised, narrow-minded drivel during the interview but he made one valid point.
The West are pushing for Putin/Russia to lose, at whatever cost. But, to Russia, a paranoid nuclear power, what does that mean. The front looks stagnant at the moment, but let's say Ukraine gets a break through a combination of wearing down the the Russian logistical supply-chain, the depletion of Russian munitions and slowly but surely begins to push Russia right back to the borders of the 2014/15 annexation or even beyond, towards Sevastapol. What happens then. Would we see an already paranoid, ostracised, economically-paralysed Russia resort to the last card that they have to play, a nuclear strike?
There is a theory that certain, logically-inclined and sane-minded military staff would baulk at carrying out any orders pertaining to a strike. However, if the situation became so perilous and grave that even the most reasonable generals are afraid for the well-being of the Motherland, I'm not so sure of any hesitation.
Thoughts?
What's with the **** music in all these videos?
Something "newsworthy" happened: the dopey basketball player got 9 years in jail. Should occupy public attention for about 5 minutes
I agree. Russia doesn't have to drop a nuclear bomb to cause a nuclear catastrophe, just a regular bomb on that site. I'm not sure how close it is to the Russian border, that's the one thing that might make them hesitate
They captured Paddy Gruzev - or whatever his name is.
Slightly off topic but if you're interested in China this book is a breathtaking assessment of the environmental situation there. When a Billion Chinese Jump by Jonathan Watts | Books | The Guardian
There is very heavy fighting going on around Avdeevka,Peski and Soledar.
attack at the mouth of the canal feeding Crimea
Could maybe be a reason NATO gets dragged into it.
Give them enough rope...
Desensitised who dehumanise.
China - US is the story of the day.
Very briefly - that'll be over in a day or two.
Wtf kinda people are these?
The US is not the only major power that China has to worry about. Across the Himalayas, India is becoming increasingly assertive, and the two countries have clashed in the past. In addition, Japan and South Korea are both heavily armed and Japan in particular seems to be shedding some of its traditional post-WW2 self-control. The Japanese Self-Defense Force is already one of the largest militaries on the planet, and they're becoming increasingly outward-focused. The conversion of the Izumo class "destroyers" into aircraft carriers, the planned acquisition of a Wasp-Class LHD from the US Navy and the recent commissioning of a small but capable fleet of fleet supply vessels all serve to illustrate that point.
China has consistently been under a magnifying glass for the last few decades, and a US pivot to Asia had already been started under the Obama administration. Even with Russia out of the picture, there won't be a major shift in the strategic picture for Beijing. They have bigger things to worry about, such as an increasing outflow of manufacturing to cheaper countries as Chinese labor becomes increasingly more expensive and China as a manufacturing base becomes less attractive. The recent near-collapse of global supply chains in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic will only have accelerated this process.
Nothing newsworthy is happening.
Every day Ukraine blows up an ammo dump or military depot and Russia fires some rockets into some civilian area. The front line isn't moving. Russian attacks are repelled. Ukraine is not mounting much of a counter-offensive yet.
Yeah I saysay y
I say you are right more just. I was thinking even if they supplied them with like you say artillery shells small arms etc. Keep the advance stuff back for themselves. It's more I'm wondering are China seeing tht a weak Russia even tho it plays into Chinese hands a good bit plays more into America's hands that they will then fully concentrate on China then since it will take Russia years to get back to some semblance of a way it was.
The big question is should Russia still be allowed to exist around nuclear systems, given its potential to make the whole world go bang through malice or recklessness?
Chernobyl should have been a wake up call as to how badly they can **** up.
The nuclear powerplants should of been internationally protected from the beginning. It might be one of those things Putin blows up if he loses just for spite.
I wonder (conspiracy theory style) if the US going to Taiwan, and the Chinese ramping up the threats is actually a distraction where the US and China are in cahoots for the Chinese to possibly look north and go after part of a weakened Russia?
Which in my mind makes sense as the Chinese would hoover up huge resources just on their doorstep and that seems to make a lot more sense than fighting over an island
Really seems to be dropping off the news cycle now more people concerned about what it's doing to the cost of living crisis than what Putrid is doing to innocent civilians.
The situation at the nuclear power plant is what worries me the most at present tbh. A lot of people seem completely obvious to the fact the biggest nuclear power plant on the planet is being used as a staging point for a war. I actually can't get my head around how seriously devastating that could be for the world if the smallest thing goes wrong. We read a lot of sh1t in the news that's designed to keep us living in fear but this potentially critical situation warrants nearly zero coverage in the media. It's frankly bonkers.
I doubt that, to be honest. Whilst Russia and the PRC are certainly both anti-western, they're not really on "friendly" friendly terms and are actually active competitors in some areas. China has had ambitions in Central Asia for quite some time now and are probably watching the increasing split between Kazakhstan and Russia very closely, even if they're not actively encouraging it, at least not yet. As Russia's influence in this area wanes as a consequence of the war, China will be eager to fill that void, and they're likely not going to make any moves that could weaken their position, such as supplying their main competitor with weapons.
Then there's the question of whether the majority of weapons systems would be compatible with the Russian arsenal in the first place. Whilst small-arms ammunition or "dumb" artillery shells shouldn't be too much of an issue, China has, over the last couple of decades, developed some highly advanced weapons systems of their own, and I doubt many of these were built with international compatibility in mind. So even if China were to provide some of its more advanced weapons systems, which they in all likelihood wouldn't for the reasons outlined above, I wouldn't be surprised if they fit into a Russian BTG about as well as an F-14 would in a WW2 Royal Navy carrier air group.
Someone described Sabines viewpoint as "Whats Russias is Russias - Whats Ukraines is up for negotiation"
And that's the bottom line for the likes of her.
I wonder with the tensions ramped up between China, Taiwan and USA will this possibly make China supply Russia with arms etc. now.
@kamilkazani did a good thread on Twitter about russian oil & gas a while back. Basically that the mafia, given russia is a mafia state, took over the relatively simple extractive industries because that's what they could understand and steal more easily.
10 years from now, I can see a lot of Duma fanatics in exile or doing porridge.
100% correct about that. Russia's plans could well have been first thought up 25 years ago when Putin was in the FSB. The manner in which Russia took full control of its oil and gas business should have sent out a warning.
These people have lost the plot - if they ever had it in the first place
Sabina Higgins should read this Sergey Mohov 🌻 on Twitter: "If Ukraine surrenders territories, the following is going to happen to people living there: - Around 30% of them will be tortured and killed - Around 30% of them will be deported to Russia - Around 30% of them will be assimilated and eventually conscripted into the Russian army" / Twitter
Was listening to an interview with William Hague yesterday.
Apparently in 2011 or so, when himself and Cameron visited Moscow, Putin was all smiles and backslapping trying to induce them to allow a gas pipeline from Russia to the UK. He had elaborate plans all ready to present to them.
Whether it was protecting the North Sea energy industry or for more strategic reasons, both Hague and Cameron immediately killed the idea dead straight away.
Just goes to show that this has been a long-game from the Kremlin.
I heard they discovered a large gas field in Norway. If so they should develop that asap.
Norway’s political tussle over new gas supplies – POLITICO
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