Putin loses more face. The world sheds no tears or gives 2 fks
I've a feeling that if Ukraine was starting to encroach on Crimea, the whole war could be overtaken by political events. It would be obvious to everyone that Putin was losing. Nuclear weapons would be a sign of total desperation, not a position of strength or a country in control. How could he ever sell that as a "win" when it would be obvious his army was taking a hammering and retreating.
What if Ukraine starts to retake Crimea though?
The closer to defeat Russia becomes the more aggressive their rhetoric will become.
Russia won’t nuke anyone while NATO directly stays on the sidelines and as long as Russia proper is not invaded.
There’s no way back from nuking Kyiv. Russia won’t be able to sell even Vodka outside Its own borders for decades. Even Iran would see turmoil if they defended Russia in such circumstances.
Russia needs to slink back to its borders and never again think of invading anyone ever again.
No there was Irish regiments in the French army and others enlisted with other European armies, prussian, Swedish, etc. Any army in Europe I think there were some Irish in the number.
The pros at the time for the ruling class were they were out of the way.
The cons at the time was the possibility of some returning home with military experience and contacts.
Going off thread. Apologies.
I thought this quote summed up the article.
On the one hand, that’s a great advantage for the regime, but it’s also its biggest problem. Nobody moves against the government, but nobody moves in favour of it, either. That’s why the COVID vaccination campaign failed, and why Putin can’t announce a general mobilization. Volodymyr Zelensky announced the other day that he wants to mobilize a million people. Russia can’t mobilize two hundred thousand because everybody runs away.
A US-sanctioned ship owned by the Pro-Assad forces has docked in Lebanon's Tripoli carrying flour and barley that the Ukrainian embassy told @Reuters was stolen from Ukrainian stores
What 17th & 18th century wars do you refer to? Cromwell and his force came here in the 17th century and there followed various plantations in Leinster etc.
Maybe you mean WW1 of the 20th century? I have ancestors who signed up and went off in WW1, but I think their motives were many & varied. 1) to do their bit with pals of their age 2) to earn a few bob 3) to support Home Rule for Ireland and 4) a bit of adventure. I don't any of them were told by ruling aristocratic landlords to go off and fight, though one might have followed by example as the young men of the local landlord also signed up. The latter mostly were made low level officers and since they had to lead from the trenches, tended not to come back.
"The good thing about this country is that everything fails, no matter what.
That’s why we joke that fascism could never work in Russia — because nothing works here."
Fascinating interview - and Putin does have cancer(???)
A Russian Sociologist Explains Why Putin’s War Is Going Even Worse Than It Looks (jacobin.com)
Well the last line of the recent linked article sums up your advice!! https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e
"Incidentally, expect more threats of nuclear weapons. Every time Russia sees more reversals, the bombing of civilian areas increases. So does the talk of a nuclear use. These are the threats of a government that can see the writing on the wall."
And that was when the ruling classes did not need young Irish men to fight for them in their own wars... Putin is slightly different, while he need's all the cannon fodder he can get, he has avoided full on mobilization. Purely because that would mean taking muscovite's into the military, and while he does not care about the provinces because he can control them , Moscow is a different kettle of fish.....Body bags arriving home to Moscow in any nrs, would unleash a backlash he would not survive.
It’s their military weakness that makes them dangerous. If they were routed in Ukraine they could do something crazy. Unless you are suggesting they are not capable of nuking Kyiv. Maybe that is true, who knows what state their nuclear force is in.
They mostly seem to deploy these at night and since they have so few, probably using one salvo and then immediately pack up and move away to a new safe hide. Suspect that's how they manage them, with the targets carefully selected with help from western intelligence. And a number of hiding places, decided on the night by local commander to minimise leaks from traitors.
You working for Filatov? That's been a standard Russian threat bandied about since this started - mess us about and we'll launch nukes.
They would have to be completely deranged to launch/ drop any sort of nuclear weapon, as that would be a huge step and invite massive escalation. And if this war special military operation has shown one thing, it is that Russia is not as well equipped militarily as thought.
Ukraine have been remarkably restrained so far in not openly attacking military & civilian targets inside Russian territory. But there seems to be a steely determination to retake all land illegally occupied since February. Suspect re Crimea, they could just cut off and isolate.
Putin would jump at a way out with a deal that he could portray as a win. The Russian military have been effectively wiped out for decades so the US has a major win already.
Explosions at Sieverny district in Donetsk
Sounds like Putin's wet dream, but the reality may be completely different. The problem with negotiating with Russia is that it's pointless - no-one believes they'll honour any agreements.
Couldn’t see Russia giving up Crimea without firing a couple of nukes. Suicidal but may be more tolerable to complete humiliation. I would expect the back channels to come into play first and the US would stop any Ukraine advance into Crimea. Also Ukraine will not be allowed to take all the lost territory in Donbas back. I think there will be negotiations and agreements that will surprise a lot of people.
Very interesting indeed. The next 2 weeks will tell us a lot.
I'm sure Putin has been "educated" re: the above.
Something along the lines of "with the greatest respect Mr. Putin, we've played real, real gentle with you so far. If anywhere gets hit by something nasty, Ukraine will still prevail, guess how?"
Interesting stuff. A lot of speculation obviously but it does suggest a large amount of problems on the Russian side. I guess we would / will get a better perspective if the Ukrainians were to launch a counter offensive and then see how the Russians are able to respond.
If it gets close to this situation the US may have to intervene to save Russia. If Crimea is threatened Russia will likely nuke Kyiv and maybe one or two other Ukrainian cities.
An interesting read on Russia's military situation.
Logistics Collapse. I can only make an assumption, in the… | by Nadin Brzezinski | Jul, 2022 | Medium
In #Mariupol (#Donetsk Oblast) on July 25 the "Satellit" factory, set on fire by the Ukrainian partisans more than 10 days ago, continued to burn.
I think what he meant is that the turning point of the war will come in mid August. Let's see. As for Russia attacking nato countries, not a chance at this stage. Their military has taken a battering and nato's air force is sufficient to destroy Russia's air force. After that it would be target practice on the ground troops.
The commander of the Russian fleet declares control of the Sea of Azov and the northern part of the Black Sea
Each rocket costs 100k. There a four rockets in each pod. Let's say you launch 5 times a day. Cost for one HIMARS for a single day is 2 million. If you give Ukraine 50 launchers that's a cost of 100m to run these things for just one day. 1 billion cost for 10 days. 10 billion cost for 100 days.
The cost is astronomical.
...
In the 17th and 18th centuries in Ireland the ruling aristocratic landlords turned a blind eye if not encouraged young Catholic men of their tenants to emigrate and fight with the European powers.
Reason was if they died it was less young men to agitate for a revolution in Ireland. They were out of the way.
Putin doesn't mind young men from the provinces getting out of the way and getting similar results. Or seems so.
Uk has sent about dozen m270s, US has already sent about 20 HIMARS, with more on way
the problem is ammunition as these can go thru pods fast
theres bipartisan thingie developing at moment in congress to send 300km rockets for HIMARS https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_us_congress_declares_the_need_to_transfer_atacms_to_ukraine_democrats_and_republicans_support_the_decision-3699.html
US has something like 1000 m270s in storage (replaced by HIMARS 20 years back) but once again the ammo is the problem
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