If the effective strangulation of russian logistics can continue without russia being able to address it, Ukraine may well be correct here. Troops running out of food, fuel, ammunition aren't going to be in the best of shape.
In fairness it’s a long time since Russia retreated from around Kiev and descended into micro advances on the eastern front . So those two weeks predictions were not that wide of the mark.
That might be true. However, by the time Ukraine is able to launch a significant offensive in multiple locations, Russia will have been able to fortify their defensive lines, making the job much, much harder for the liberating Ukrainian forces. Don't get me wrong, I do believe that Ukraine can, and ultimately will, win this war. And I expect at least Kherson to be liberated before the summer is out. However, to use a rather crude WW2 analogy, that won't be the 2022 equivalent for D-Day in this war. It'll be akin to taking Guadalcanal: A good first step, but there'll still be a long way to go.
By the way, I hope I'm wrong and we actually DO see a collapse of Russian forces all along the front, but they've turned out to be bloody resilient so far in this war, even with their piss-poor logistics.
I had long feared what would happen if Russia planned some kind of D-day type of landing on the Odessa coastline
Based on recent history, they'll mostly end up on the bottom on the sea so happy days.
Absolutely disgraceful, essentially promoting appeasement of a violent regime that has invaded it's sovereign neighbour.
She and her hubby would do well to dwell on the message in 'For What Died the Sons of Roisin?'
"Was it greed that drove Wolfe Tone to a pauper's death in a cell of cold wet stone?
Will German, French or Dutch inscribe the epitaph of Emmett?
When we have sold enough of Ireland to be but strangers in it
For what died the sons of Róisín, was it greed?
To whom do we owe our allegiance today?
To those brave men who fought and died that Róisín live again with pride?
Her sons at home to work and sing
Her youth to dance and make her valleys ring
Or the faceless men who for Mark and Dollar
Betray her to the highest bidder
To whom do we owe our allegiance today?"
Champagne Socialists First Class are our so called First Citizens. Hmpppph.
There's a definite change in mood since the HIMARS got busy
Some say the Russians have only one last "lurch" left in them
Being an "anti-war campaigner" is fine in theory if you view wars as being of the 1914-18 variety - big empires squaring up to each other and throwing shapes rather using diplomacy.
But Ukraine is an example of a brutal oppressor and criminal regime invading a much smaller country without warning or provocation. Saying that you are anti-war and pro-peace in that circumstance is completely meaningless.
Why is the UK taking so long to send their tracked version of the Himars ? Why isn't the US sending 50 Himars instead tiny numbers like 4...
Uk has sent about dozen m270s, US has already sent about 20 HIMARS, with more on way
the problem is ammunition as these can go thru pods fast
theres bipartisan thingie developing at moment in congress to send 300km rockets for HIMARS https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_us_congress_declares_the_need_to_transfer_atacms_to_ukraine_democrats_and_republicans_support_the_decision-3699.html
US has something like 1000 m270s in storage (replaced by HIMARS 20 years back) but once again the ammo is the problem
In the 17th and 18th centuries in Ireland the ruling aristocratic landlords turned a blind eye if not encouraged young Catholic men of their tenants to emigrate and fight with the European powers.
Reason was if they died it was less young men to agitate for a revolution in Ireland. They were out of the way.
Putin doesn't mind young men from the provinces getting out of the way and getting similar results. Or seems so.
...
Each rocket costs 100k. There a four rockets in each pod. Let's say you launch 5 times a day. Cost for one HIMARS for a single day is 2 million. If you give Ukraine 50 launchers that's a cost of 100m to run these things for just one day. 1 billion cost for 10 days. 10 billion cost for 100 days.
The cost is astronomical.
The commander of the Russian fleet declares control of the Sea of Azov and the northern part of the Black Sea
I think what he meant is that the turning point of the war will come in mid August. Let's see. As for Russia attacking nato countries, not a chance at this stage. Their military has taken a battering and nato's air force is sufficient to destroy Russia's air force. After that it would be target practice on the ground troops.
In #Mariupol (#Donetsk Oblast) on July 25 the "Satellit" factory, set on fire by the Ukrainian partisans more than 10 days ago, continued to burn.
An interesting read on Russia's military situation.
Logistics Collapse. I can only make an assumption, in the… | by Nadin Brzezinski | Jul, 2022 | Medium
If it gets close to this situation the US may have to intervene to save Russia. If Crimea is threatened Russia will likely nuke Kyiv and maybe one or two other Ukrainian cities.
Interesting stuff. A lot of speculation obviously but it does suggest a large amount of problems on the Russian side. I guess we would / will get a better perspective if the Ukrainians were to launch a counter offensive and then see how the Russians are able to respond.
I'm sure Putin has been "educated" re: the above.
Something along the lines of "with the greatest respect Mr. Putin, we've played real, real gentle with you so far. If anywhere gets hit by something nasty, Ukraine will still prevail, guess how?"
Very interesting indeed. The next 2 weeks will tell us a lot.
Couldn’t see Russia giving up Crimea without firing a couple of nukes. Suicidal but may be more tolerable to complete humiliation. I would expect the back channels to come into play first and the US would stop any Ukraine advance into Crimea. Also Ukraine will not be allowed to take all the lost territory in Donbas back. I think there will be negotiations and agreements that will surprise a lot of people.
Sounds like Putin's wet dream, but the reality may be completely different. The problem with negotiating with Russia is that it's pointless - no-one believes they'll honour any agreements.
Explosions at Sieverny district in Donetsk
Putin would jump at a way out with a deal that he could portray as a win. The Russian military have been effectively wiped out for decades so the US has a major win already.
You working for Filatov? That's been a standard Russian threat bandied about since this started - mess us about and we'll launch nukes.
They would have to be completely deranged to launch/ drop any sort of nuclear weapon, as that would be a huge step and invite massive escalation. And if this war special military operation has shown one thing, it is that Russia is not as well equipped militarily as thought.
Ukraine have been remarkably restrained so far in not openly attacking military & civilian targets inside Russian territory. But there seems to be a steely determination to retake all land illegally occupied since February. Suspect re Crimea, they could just cut off and isolate.
They mostly seem to deploy these at night and since they have so few, probably using one salvo and then immediately pack up and move away to a new safe hide. Suspect that's how they manage them, with the targets carefully selected with help from western intelligence. And a number of hiding places, decided on the night by local commander to minimise leaks from traitors.
It’s their military weakness that makes them dangerous. If they were routed in Ukraine they could do something crazy. Unless you are suggesting they are not capable of nuking Kyiv. Maybe that is true, who knows what state their nuclear force is in.
And that was when the ruling classes did not need young Irish men to fight for them in their own wars... Putin is slightly different, while he need's all the cannon fodder he can get, he has avoided full on mobilization. Purely because that would mean taking muscovite's into the military, and while he does not care about the provinces because he can control them , Moscow is a different kettle of fish.....Body bags arriving home to Moscow in any nrs, would unleash a backlash he would not survive.
Well the last line of the recent linked article sums up your advice!! https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e
"Incidentally, expect more threats of nuclear weapons. Every time Russia sees more reversals, the bombing of civilian areas increases. So does the talk of a nuclear use. These are the threats of a government that can see the writing on the wall."
"The good thing about this country is that everything fails, no matter what.
That’s why we joke that fascism could never work in Russia — because nothing works here."
Fascinating interview - and Putin does have cancer(???)
A Russian Sociologist Explains Why Putin’s War Is Going Even Worse Than It Looks (jacobin.com)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w9.vanillicon.com/v2/99cb88aba86d6cd761548c5d5bb50f6a.svg)
