If being an unaligned country with a large army is no deterrent to Putin's ambitions is it time for ROI to join Nato?
To dismiss the attack on our health service which caused upwards of 100m euro worth of damage on top of the damage it caused to people's lives as a gang of teenage phisers would be risible if it was not so dangerous to our country. The Russian dictatorship uses these hacking groups as an extension of their military apparatus just as the Americans use various groups such as US Aid for their own purposes.
Russia is indeed a clear and present threat to the security of Ireland as they are to all of us in the EU. No idea why your replying to me and talking about us not joining NATO. At no time on this thread have I advocated Ireland join NATO at the present time. What I have said is we need to develop a legitimate and capable defense and security force. Something we do not possess at the present time. This has meant we are effectively acting as freeloaders and acting in an utterly selfish manner when it comes to defense and security capabilities as a member of the collective that is the EU due to our refusal to play our part in protecting that collective.
Ireland strategic usefulness is either for UK/ European forces to retreat to whilst waiting to be collected by US forces, or for US forces to use as a staging point in retaking Europe.
It's of absolutely no use to Russia for invading Europe from, unless they have already taken out the US or the US has for some reason fallen asleep, and they have already taken out the vast majority or Europe and Norway/ Iceland and Spain. I'm assuming that they aren't expected to just pop up in the North Sea and take out the UK without going anywhere near the rest of Europe first.
Maybe if Atlantis emerged from the middle of the Atlantic and aligned with Russia there would be a bigger risk, but otherwise the risks to Ireland are more sabotage type operations or cyber attacks, and joining NATO isn't going to make a lot of difference with preparing for those kind of attacks, or in reacting to them after the event.
How does this argument apply to countries such as Portugal? Is it possible that they see a national interest in a secure Europe and are willing to do their part to ensure it, even though they are not under any direct military threat themselves?
The problem with that line of thinking is that it assumes an either/or event. "Russia invades Ireland, the UK will counter-invade, we'll be fine", and not that the UK might perhaps be distracted in Norway, Lithuania or Poland at the time. If such a thing were to occur, then it would be a priority for the Russians to cut the line of supply from North America to Europe. The best way of doing that is by use of a launching point in the North Atlantic, Iceland and Ireland being the two prime contenders. France and UK, for example, would be presented with a choice. Do they send troops to the Eastern Front, or do they send them to Ireland?
Of course, the reality is that this is not likely to be a threat for a decade or two, now that the Russian inventory and military machine has been proven something of a paper tiger, but there is absolutely no getting around the fact that the sea lines of communication across the Atlantic have been critical in every European war in the last century, even this current one. Ukraine isn't getting all that American stuff from European stocks.
If "the West" is involved in Norway or the Baltics then do we really think that Russia has anything close to the capability to conduct a massive marine invasion when they will be unable to use the North Sea and will have to get past the Straits of Gibraltar?
Also, would it ever make sense for them? There are reasons that ultimately the Nazis, the French, the Spanish all either failed or decided not to use Ireland as a springboard to Britain.
Probably. Sometimes you have to take a stand. Moral cowardice involved in neutrality in many instances.
I think remaining neutral requires more bravery tbh.
The pressure Dev was under required cahonas of steel to resist.
I'd agree with Dev. To soon after WOI to join with Britain.
Just different times today.
Remaining neutral isn't, same moral pressure.
It just assumes that Russia invading Ireland is not their end goal and that nobody else would expect it to be happening in isolation.
Ireland is at risk after other countries have already been attacked, but at that point it really makes no difference if Ireland is in NATO or not. NATO would already be fully engaged with Russia anyway.
What NATO country would Russia have to attack if it attacked Shannon?
What would be the purpose of attacking Shannon if not to then launch an attack on a NATO country from this hypothetical Kaliningrad on Shannon?
Or would their aim just be to create a new statelet for the fun of trying to supply it entirely by exceedingly long sea routes through Turkey, Denmark or the Arctic ocean?
Well because they could ? Imagine 5k orcs arrive today in the shannon what are we going to do about it ? They could burn half the place down. People here are very wary of the Brits. Can you Imagine them landing 10k troops to stop the orcs.. Without being Invited. Could take 2-3 days for the Brits to get here and kick the orcs out. Few hours to get to Dub burn the place down then what ?
Judging by Russia's current behaviour if Ireland was to be attacked by a foreign threat, that threat would not care much for Shannon, and would just hit a city [any city] and that would be that. Strategy no longer seems to be a key point in invading countries, but targeting citizens certainly seems to be. Point to note, I feel in 10 years' time the biggest threats will be from nefarious commando-type units with dirty bombs/cyber hacks/bio threats. Not necessarily in that order. NATO would need I think to include international intelligence units in order to be prepared for what threats come about in the future. WAr is changing and anyone can see that.
An F16 can do little against a crazy goon and a dirty bomb. I am not saying James Bond-type agents are the answer but they could be a templet.
Russia is going to attack us for the lols and craic?
Fantasy island stuff tbh
Are you suggesting there is a pact with the UK to just land on Ireland if we get invaded. Few hours drive from shannon to Dub they could burn the whole place down. And to boot the MNC's we rely on. 5k men to Russia is nothing.
What?
It's in plain English. How would we stop 5k Russian troops moving from Shannon to Dublin. Unless your eluding to some UK pact that they Immediately mobilise and land on Irelands sovereign soil. Please let the rest of us know how we would fight them off.
They wouldn't, stop scaremongering
Wait an off his nut guy in Russia would not think of invading Ireland. few that's sorted. forgot about Ireland being sunk with the UK in there vids on the news.
No they would have nothing to gain from it. It's just hysterics to suggest they would.
The only ones to gain from us joining NATO are those selling weapons!
There was nothing to gain invading Ukraine apart from NATO borders expanding according the the lads in Russia. Now there trying to Increase their border with NATO.
Ah here, you think Russia are going to do that for the lols. That's just not credible sorry. Russia are struggling a few miles from home ffs.
But your not critically thinking about it. 5k throw away troops could wreak Ireland. Regardless of their ability to defeat the Ukraine. We have nothing to stop it.
Not the same, Ukraine is a former Soviet state and has a land border with Russia. It's hysterical to suggest Russia could invade Ireland.
Ask yourself, if NATO are the defender why have they not helped Ukraine other than supplying weapons (which must be paid for)
You could conjure up any threat you want but it has to be realistic. If somebody has nothing to lose there is no protection in the world that will stop them.
What countries border Ukraine I will wait. NATO was expanding was the call.
I think given the choice the Irish people will emphatically reject getting involved with heroes like these.
So As I thought were on our own. How do we defend against any number of militant men in numbers invading via shannon. Garda ? Army. Answers on a postcard. 🤔
Why would anyone attack and waste troops as you say? What would the purpose be?
I'd they are going to waste troops why not attack Britain?
Why not attack the UK.. They would be destroyed in moments. they have means of defending themselves. We do not.
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