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Hot Spell - Saturday 16th July onwards

sryanbruen

During the past week or so, the GFS has been hinting at some notable hot weather for Western Europe around the 15th July. Some runs had gone off showing ridiculous high temperatures getting widespread 40s into SE England and nearing 50C in southwestern France. For context, the UK record maximum temperature is 38.7C from July 2019 and France 45.9C in June 2019. The values on these GFS runs would completely smash these records to bits, similar to the Canadian heatwave in June 2021. Now and again, we've also seen the possibility of 30C or more being achieved in Ireland. The extreme temperatures being projected by the GFS have been pegged back a touch as time has gone on but only relatively speaking as records would still be tumbling or be vulnerable. The warm weather for Ireland meanwhile has only gotten more extreme lately with runs. It's not only the GFS doing this now, it's also the ECM, GEM and UKMO showing Ireland getting a direct feed by Monday 18th July. Details given below.

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The latest ECM run as of writing this post shows an exceptional hot airmass reaching Ireland by Monday 18th July with 850hPa temperatures widely exceeding 20C. On the surface, such high temperatures aloft would usually correlate with mid to upper 30s but due to Ireland's maritime climate, moderation must be taken into consideration. Favoured areas such as inland regions would achieve over 30C. In fact, the raw ECM temperatures indicate values of 32C around Kildare/Dublin on both Monday and Tuesday. Much of the north Midlands and parts of Clare/Kerry/Limerick indicated to reach at least 30C on Monday. The 30s become more confined to the east on Tuesday. It is uncertain whether it would be appropriate to apply the usual 2C correction to the raw values because as it is, such widespread nature of 30s is exceptional and 32C for the east would be challenging records. The record max for County Dublin for example is 31.0C.

GEM also shows 32C in a similar vicinity to the ECM on Monday around Meath/Kildare area. GFS shows 32C being achieved in Clare. Both models overall are variations on a theme already described above by the ECM.

The UKMO shows the 20C isotherm at 850hPa clearing the entire country through Monday. The only known time the 20C isotherm in recent history has reached Ireland was the early hours of 28th June 2019 into the far southeast so this would be phenomenal. It does not show very high surface temperatures compared to the other models despite its exceptional 850hPa temperatures. However, I have never found the UKMO to be very good at picking up daily temperatures - the shorter range hi-res UKV is by far superior in this regard.

The core of the heat has been pushed back a few times, at one time it was around the 15th and now it's around the 18th/19th which is still like 6-7 days away. So there's always the possibility that this hot weather could completely miss Ireland or significantly toned down due to different placements of a Biscay cut off low which drives the hot airmass northwards. However, for the moment, we pretty much have model agreement so it's certainly one to watch! This is likely to be a brief spell of hot weather but as brief it is, records could tumble.

The Irish definition for a heatwave is for a station to record 5 consecutive days with a maximum temperature of 25C or more.

REMINDER to be nice to one another. Let's keep the discussions civil and friendly! People have different preferences and they have no bearing on the weather that occurs, let's respect them.

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Akrasia

Unfortunately, it won't be a once in a lifetime event. Once the record is broken, we'll be seeing this record creeping up every few years as climate change takes its toll

Max tenps 32c 2006, 32c 2018, possibly 33+c 2022

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119335716#Comment_119335716

33.3 °C 1887...

bad2thebone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119335716#Comment_119335716

The Atlantic ocean off Clare is like tepid warm water at the moment, 16 Celsius the other day, the upper water in my local limestone lake Lough Bunny near Crusheen is like swimming pool.

hunter2000

I’m off to the beach, factor 50 and a box of Carlsberg

pad199207

GFS looking hot for Monday!

Denny61

This is never going to be a once in a lifetime experience or event ..as some have suggested ..a small matter of global warming. So every few years records might be passed .then it just becomes the norm

Gonzo

GFS now going for widespread 32C across the Limerick/Clare inland regions.

IF the above verifies and Shannon Airport reaches somewhere an air temperature close to 33.0C then that reading with the tarmac and all that could push the result to about 34C.

If we get a 32C in Meath and another 32C at Shannon, the Shannon result is bound to be higher in the end.

John.Icy

The random 32 over Dublin. lol

GFS taking into account the Phoenix Park heat trap eh.

Gonzo

GEM 6z now showing 33C for Meath on Monday.

The high resolution UKV Model going for widespread 34C across the midlands.

This mornings runs are the hottest I've seen yet, IF we get any more upgrades we could be potentially looking at 35C somewhere but instead of jumping ahead of ourselves we have to try and keep our feet on the ground. Regardless Monday is going to be hot hot hot.

ascophyllum

Looking back in the FI thread, Gonzo first noticed signs of this around the 23rd of June! And then more clearly around the 29th June, crazy the models are that good that they can spot something like this and it actually verifies.

On another note, a Met Eireann meteorologist on Pat Kenny Show today said this is a consequence of climate change; the temperature of this airmass is totally normal over the Sahara, and then if there is a pressure system which funnells it north, where else can it go? And then a weak low over Biscay will temporarily advect it over Ireland. Would this low have gone elsewhere if there were no humans around? There's no evidence of that. As soon as the Atlantic gets in temps will fall back to normal values instantly.

whippet

I'm glad I'm living by the east coast - so will have some relief from the heat further inland - every positive has a negative in that my quite little beach will be over run with day trippers !

Gonzo

A few posts here about this upcoming spell being caused by climate change. It has nothing whatsoever got to do with climate change or what's happening in India or other places half way around the world. This upcoming mini hot spell is being caused by a perfect alignment of low pressures, particularly the one west of Portugal and another one over Scandinavia. This is allowing the furance doors to open from Algeria/Morocco and funnelling that heat directly north up through the interior oven of Spain and Ireland just happens to be getting a direct hit this time around.

9 times out of 10 these plumes go north as far as western France and then swing north-eastwards over central and southeastern areas of the UK and usually avoids Ireland completely as we nearly always have a trailing trough sitting just to our west or over us. We usually have to rely on the Azores high to sit over us for about a week in order to get temperatures close to 30C. This upcoming spell of weather is quite different to the typical azores high pattern and everything hinges on that low west of Portugal being in perfect alignment to allow this heat over Ireland. It is also this low west of Portugal which will drift northwards and perhaps enter Irish airspace and cuase a possible quick and thundery breakdown on Tuesday and after that we are back to fairly standard conditions.

pauldry

Donegal is the place to be Monday if ya don't like heat. Only 17c on the NW tip. Sligo is 26c now and not 29c as per earlier runs it's hard to warm up land that has been wet and 15c most of Summer. Drier south has much more chance of getting over 30c.

Last year was a much warmer Summer in the NW than 2022 so we got over 30c

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336196#Comment_119336196

I think the halfway house point between people exclusively blaming this on climate change and those saying it has nothing to do with it is, this upcoming pattern/weather has nothing to do with climate change however in a warmer world the air that travels here could be a degree or so warmer when it reaches Ireland than it would be without climate change as the regions it coming from are getting warmer on average.

Cluedo Monopoly

Will the Low pressures associated with this heat blast from the south mean that it will be breezy on Sunday-Tuesday?

Supercell

Dare I say it?, hope this goes the way of our usual winter beast from the east scenarios! Dont want a Winter 2010 please this weekend! Thank god we are near the coast here and hopefully a decent sea breeze will take the edge of it.

We were in a caravan in Galway last summer during the hot spell, was blessed relief to get on the boat to Inis Oirr to get away from it one day. Mind you the fireworks at the end of it heard from inside a caravan were mega!

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336196#Comment_119336196

Good post. I laugh when weather gets confused with climate.

By the rationale that the coming weather is climate change related, climate change peaked in 1887!

tiegan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334706#Comment_119334706

Sod's law after you upgraded your temps in the forecast comp!! You left me hanging out on my own there at the bottom of the list :)

pauldry

The steering low off Portugal has started to move its clouds slowly Northwards. Imagine it got here by Sunday and ruined it all. But all the weather forecasts say it won't so I'm not worried.

Reversal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119335986#Comment_119335986

Dublin will see an element of the Foehn effect with the winds being pretty much out of the south off the hills, that and the heat island effect probably will raise temps a touch higher than they would be otherwise.

Denny61

Jesus hre in tipperary..its over cast..a fresh breeze. And we thinking of lighting the stove ..so much for hot weather..

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336706#Comment_119336706

If this has any SSW to it on Sunday and Mon with clear skies you could well be right, that's where the records could fall (in Dublin Phoenix Park or Casement perhaps). If the sea breeze holds off long enough. There's a reason the Irish record has stood for so long, really needs absolutely perfect synoptics.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336526#Comment_119336526

I forgot to mention in my original post that another reason why temperatures may be that much higher this time around, apart from the perfect alignment of those low pressures opening the furness door. Throughout the month of June the battle between the North Atlantic/Greenland lows that provided us a fairly crap June ended up bottling the heat across much of Spain and the central Med for weeks on end. The sea surface temperature anomalies are quite extreme at the moment in the Med as that heat had nowhere to go for over a month. In recent weeks the Bay of Biscay has warmed up alot and this warmer than average anomaly is already pushing into Ireland and the UK, particularly off Cork and Waterford and up to Wicklow. The sea surface temperature by Sunday on our south coast and extending up through the Irish sea could get close to 20C, they are currently around 17 to 18C. They are normally around 15C or 16C at best during the height of summer. These very hot upper air temperatures are not going to get moderated as much as in previous years by the 1000km+ sea track between Cork and Bilbao, so that reason alone could cause temperatures to be a degree or so higher.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336706#Comment_119336706

If folks want to blame climate change - then this is the closest to reality of it! A man-made concrete city of the geographical footprint that Dublin is (low-rise and spread out) and it sitting north of highland terrain with a southerly airflow will definitely alter the weather for immediate areas north of the city in particular.

So yes - mankind changing the weather through altering the landscape (such as buildings, concrete, etc...) is a thing.

Similarly, the area southwest of Nenagh gets quite nasty hailstorms - so much so that the TII have an average speed zone there now to improve safety - the sprawl of Limerick City is likely giving rise to heavier hail fall along that part of the M7. Ditto for a car park in Shannon Airport.

Bottom line is - man changes land use, the weather reacts.

As for the occurrences of 30+ in Ireland there were many between 1850 and 1890.

GalwayGaillimh

32 Degrees sweet jesus

ascophyllum

That is interesting, I remember a few notable hail showers on the motorway just east of Galway - same effect? Does the heat generated by a city give an airmass a little lift as it passes over?

Storm 10

There will be a lot of egg on de faces if this does not come off Cobra meeting in London about this heat coming in

murfo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336729#Comment_119336729

That's why it's crucial to moderate your expectations by reading the thread title, nothing much changing until Saturday. Light her up

Meteorite58

Very hot charts from ICON, it might overdo the wind speeds but would think the temperatures if anything would err on the side of being conservative or even slightly underplay it at times. Better start bringing in the roads!

Going to be some warm night to follow.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336807#Comment_119336807

Its funny that you accept that building a car park can affect the local climate, but are skeptical about the impact of pumping hundreds of billions of tonnes of a greenhouse gas into our atmosphere