Agreed. Never underestimate some of the electorate… some will even savour the protest vote. Democracy, innit.
Quadrilateral negotiations on the export of Ukrainian grain began in Istanbul with the participation of the delegations of Ukraine, Turkey, the UN and Russia
They are both very similar by the looks of it. The Bayraktar appears to be the better quality drone, and prior to this war Turkey managed to get these used to get effect in the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh War. Nagorno-Karabakh was interesting technology-wise as it was perfect trial run of Turkish tech (via Azerbaijan) against a typical Russian-equipped land army (Armenia).
The main drawback to the Bayraktar verses the Shahed is that Bayraktars need a Western supply chain to keep them maintained. Shahed appears to be made to be “sanction-friendly” with parts Iran could make locally. This is probably the appeal to Russia, assuming they can keep Iran friendly.
However, the Shahed has so far mostly been used in Syria, which isn’t really the same as hitting targets in Ukraine. They may not be as effective there. We’ll have to wait and see.
Just listened to Tom Clonan on Eamonn Dunphys podcast. He was quite definitive in that he does not think that NATO will have the appetite to support a mass mobilisation of Ukrainian troops to retake the Donbas. And that we’ll be looking at negotiations around a peace deal pretty soon. Is worth a listen
straight swap possible, the south for the rest of the Donbas
Seems like it, yes
The real issue here is Ukraine's ability to defend against them. Any old drone is lethal without air defense.
Thanks for that, will be interesting to see …
Problem with this though is that a peace deal would be virtually meaningless to Putin. He could announce at any point in the following year or two that following extreme "provocations" by Ukraine, he has no choice but to rip up the deal and invade the country again, which of course would be cheered on by the Kremlin press and the legions of Putin bots.
No doubt lots of nonsense / garbage again about how Ukraine was oppressing Russian minorities and carrying out genocide.
Indeed. There would need to be a defence pact with Ukraine and active monitoring of activity in the Donbas. Joint exercises with Ukraine military and ongoing supply of weapons. To stop further aggression.
Putin would of course want a security guarantee from NATO with respect to the Donbas, probably in return for giving up aspirations on the south.
just don’t see the west supporting what would be a bloody and savage offensive by Ukraine to retake the Donbas. The redrawing of boundaries is probably an inevitability
Round the wagons lads, its time for more defensive rationalization!
EU gets its way and does Russia a favour
But severe sanctions by the West remain on Russia.
No way Russia gets parts of Ukraine, commits Nazi/Stalin level war crimes and the West says, “we good?”
You’re Russian Bot level when it comes to the EU. And for that reason I won’t be reading your link.
How can you negotiate a peace deal when the other side have kidnapped and exiled 2 million of your citizens to places thousands of km away? Questions on a postcard to Prof Geoffrey Roberts of UCC Cork.
They're getting better with the sound effects
Yes, sanctions will continue as well, of course, and the more effort we make in Europe to reduce our reliance on Russian gas, the less leverage Putin will have for us to ever lessen them. And then hopefully Putin’s successor, taking over an impoverished country, will re-engage with the west, including around the border with Ukraine
the best we can do is to eliminate Russia from our supply chain. That is better than trying to beat them on a bloody Donbas battlefield
Time for special railway maintenance operations to conclude around time north stream is fixed
And who is going to perish in this 'bloody and savage offensive' to retake the Donbas? We've already had a 'bloody and savage offensive' by Russia to capture many towns and cities in the region. Presumably most pro Ukraine citizens have either fled to the east or died.
Ukrainian forces would die in the 'bloody and savage offensive' and that is a matter for Ukraine to decide. Other than that, Russian forces and Russian settlers and mercenaries will die. Don't think Ukraine will shed many tears for them. Many urban areas have already been substantially damaged by artillery.
Why is/was a Russian 'bloody and savage offensive' acceptable? And a Ukrainian one not?
It does come down to the 'west' and how much and for how long can military equipment and training be provided. But where's the merit for the west in having gone this far, to allow an invading aggressor to hold territory gained from the biggest European war in 70 years? When you start a job, you have to have a view of the end and what looks like and to finish the job.
I never said Russia’s actions were acceptable. What they have done is terrible. But I don’t really give a **** about the Donbas, where the border is drawn, and I doubt Biden, Schulz or anyone else actually does either. It’s just about containing Putin. This just needs to end
And you’re right, it’s Ukraines call about mobilising this hundreds of thousands strong force to retake that territory that Zelensky is talking about, but it’s not a given that he would get logistical and weapons support for a major offensive.
maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see western support being unlimited
Not going to happen, if you mean an internal coup
At Kramatorsk direction Russian army shelled Hryhorivka, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Verkhniokamyanske, Zakitne, Serebrianka and Spirne. Russian aviation conducted airstrike near Verkhniokamyanske and Mayaky, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
looks like the heaviest bombings in weeks all across the Eastern front
I am still trying to work out why Russia kidnapped a million Ukraine citizens and hid them away in Russia. What on earth is the plan there? Are they bargaining chips, or are they been abused by god knows who, for the fun of it?
Russias population is shrinking fast
Ethnic cleansing, the properties of these people (if not destroyed) are handed out to Russian soldiers then as bounty
The plan is to colonise novo rossiya
Well in other news Transnistria which has been out of the news of late now has secure borders.
Quote:
the Transnistria direction is tightly secured; the border and adjacent areas are reliably protected, and we feel rather calm in this area.
Watch for the second strike at 0:20
Steve’s regular series on reading Russian newspapers has been fascinating last few months
here is latest
Really? This type of awful stuff (deporting "undesirables" to reshape the makeup of entire populations or just exiling them to where they can't cause "trouble", taking away the enemies' children and raising them on your own propaganda) has a long history. Standard colonialism/imperialism.
If you are being serious maybe it shows that some people did not think it could happen any more (post WW2) on such a scale + with a nation doing it to a supposedly sovereign neighbour rather than with internal "enemies" (like China does f.e.g.).
Russia has a demographic time bomb - a lot of it related to the collapse of the Soviet union and it aftermath - if very few kids were born 20 or 30 years ago then you've very few Russians of child bearing age , so even less kids going forward ..
So by kidnapping kids of non ameniable Ukrainians - and shipping friendly young Ukrainians to eastern Siberia, you help aleviate a crisis ...
And without input from Ukraine??? Some hope that they will accept losing any of their Country to Russia willingly. Even if it goes to Guerrilla warfare ( which I don't believe it will ) this now goes deeper than Ukraine V Russia. Putin has mistakenly tread on to many toes for this to go back to "business as usual" He has to be stopped once and for all, one way or an other. And this is his last shot of the dice, by this time next year, he will not be able to use his oil and gas leverage as he is doing now, In fact he will never be able to use it again. For the west, it will be a salutary lesson in the " All egg's in the one basket, once bitten, twice shy " modality. And this will apply not only to Russia either.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/eedacf599b4135dfd56d6fdbddcbd867.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w0.vanillicon.com/v2/07abd39dc4f0afde3c391afc78cc920e.svg)
