Euronews footage from inside the courtroom.
In Spanish but you get the jist.
I'd say there's a real chance for the Ukrainians to strike a crippling blow against the Russians by taking out that Crimean bridge. I think they finally have the proper long range accurate weaponry to take out that structure. And the Russians know it. It's why they have just taken measures in the last few days to secure it. A bridge like that is incredibly difficult to put out of commission. But now, the opportunity is there. And with the logistical problems the Russians are about to run into, this could be a hammer blow.
If they're pushing back in the South and are leaving the East for now then a bombardment of Crimea along with cutting every piece of infrastructure connecting it should follow.
When the Russian army collapse it will come hard and fast. At present they are totally dependent on there artillery for both defence and offence. If this collapses ( in my opinion it not if it's when,) there whole present strategy will collapse with it.
UA forces will be able to roll back the front very fast. What it took Russia a month to take will be rolled back in days. The biggest issue the UA will find is trying not to let there army get too far ahead of there supply logistics.
I expect the UA to be dropping Putin his Christmas presents at the gate of the Kremlin before Christmas
Ya'd know it was a Friday night.
Well it might be Friday but Vladimir lost the plot yesterday.
As an old adversary of mine used to say as he threw the biro on the desk
''the game is up''
But it's more like Sherlock Holmes''
'' the game's afoot ''
Give it 3-4 weeks
There we have folks, 3-4 weeks til the end of the world, enjoy it while yous can!
At this stage I would question if there are any nukes in Russia and not just siloes. we have seen the rampant corruption. Showing a few ballistics is not the same as saying you have 3k or whatever.
I did not say it would end but we will see it starting to see it turn in Ukraine's favour
Bass. I've learnt a lot about Farming beef from you, mostly good,lol.
I think you are wrong here, the Russian force may well collapse but it is more likely to regroup advance at savage cost and savage behaviour.
It'll take the Donbass, how much after that?. Russia will think nothing of a 100k dead soldiers and it's populace will tolerate deprivation and shortage that few here would.
If you think they'll get anywhere close to Moscow without half of Europe being nuked then let me know where you're getting, I hear there's a drought at the minute. 🤣
I do not expect them to invade Russia. However I do expect that we will see significant changes in this war over the next while. Russia cannot replace the military equipment it's has expended.
It will take a year to replace 25% of what it lost in the last 4 months. If any I think it's when it's artillery collapses the UA will have virtually free rein.
Any tanks or APV's it has left have hit there major overhaul stage. the UA has not deployed it's armoured capability yet. As it gain the advantages in artillery it will virtually roll up the Russian army.
The big question will be if Russia can hold Crimea.
All modem wars are dependent on technology and logistics. It's down to now how long the Russian artillery can last.
They never attained air superiority. There advantage in tanks and APV's never materialised. They have not mobilised because they fear the conquences. There Naval superiority proved to be not decisive. They have virtually used up all there IC missiles.
All they have is there fixed artillery. When that comes under pressure the game is up.
The probability remains though that they have artillery shells and pieces in numbers that could be sustained for years.
Russia has long been about such pieces and equipment and has Always spent accordingly. Even under Peter the Great, Russia put artillery above all else.
One never knows but there is good reason to suspect that Russia will still have plenty of artillery and shells no matter how long the conflict.
It may well run out of everything else before that but the Red Army will be going this year and well in to next.
Again all those stockpiles of dumb munitions have a use by date. Would you wager they said they replaced them and trousered the money ?
There certainly is only so far they can go with it but I think we are a long way from that yet.
Going by other conflicts. Anything in the last 30 years should be ok.
They used alot of left over WW2 shells in the 80s.
The Afghan Army had Ww1 tanks in use in fighting them, for whatever use that was.
I'm not entirely surprised by his description and it tallies with other reports we've heard from Moscow in the media. The idea of mass protests in Russia or people turning against Putin is a total non runner.
But let's see how this pans out in the longer term. I'm not sure the implications have even dawned yet on the Russian public of being a permanent pariah state on the global stage. They are nowhere even near seeing how bad things might become, politically, socially and economically - even people in the Soviet Union arguably had more freedoms than this.
Putin's Russia is by an order of magnitude more free, more open,less brutal.
There really is no comparison. It's not that Russia today is nice but pointing out the historical reality of Soviet Russia.
There is no comparison ..
Could Putin even get back to half the control that there was in Gorbachev's time, no, not a hope and Gorby was a gentle by party standards.
Shells maybe fine stockpiled for years, problem is getting them to the artillery on the front line. With major arms depots blown up and over 100km from the front line, it makes supplying those artillery pieces extremely slow. Not to mention said artillery barrels need to be also replaced.
Peter the great was over 400 years ago, don't you believe wars have changed since then?
Were at the stage now where Russia is lobbing artillery blindly at Ukraine, while Ukraine are conducting precision strikes now on the Russians.
Russians took about 3 months to take 20 square miles of territory. The 20% being thrown about is mainly from their initial trust (when certain key figures in the Donbas were working with Russians and Ukraine lacked serious western arms)
Pre February 24th maybe? They are effectively cut off from the western world with all Russian flights banned from entering western airspace. Their sports teams and athletes are banned from all international competitions, including at underage level (something that never happened to the USSR at any point in the 1960s, 1970s or 1980s) and from all cultural events (Eurovision, ballet, theatre, music etc). There was no equivalent to the sanctions against the regime obviously, as they had a closed economy in Soviet times. State media since the invasion can not be said to be much different to how it was in the USSR with all independent TV and radio stations plus newspapers shut down by the government.
This could be nearly on a Green thread.
Moscow is not cut off from the western world. They may be flying to Dubai and Turkey or the "Stans" and so on. But the fights are flying.
Moscow on flight radar24.
And just for the heck.
Same time a picture of France.
Edit : it does look like any international flights into or out of Russia can only go to/from Moscow.
As Ukraine is getting more mobile artillery, Russia have a huge problem. Practically all of theirs is fixed and make easier targets. They can’t drive along fire off a dozen shells and move off like Ukraine can with western artillery.
Especially with the chap who’s wife owns billions of Russian assets in the running for the pm job
Sixty year old jailed for 7 years in Russia for criticising the war. A reminder that there are some good people there, this takes real courage:
But a shame on the country that such voices are extremely rare. The government can jail a few isolated people, they couldn't jail a million if they spoke out
Christ, they need better artists. Both futures for the kid look equally horrific.
And on the right side it will be those soldiers that return home after a 12 month mission just in time to see their child born.
The smart answer might be that a few ballistic missiles landing in their midst might change their tune, which is fortunately very unlikely for them at the moment. But it matters little, it's how the Russian administration prosecute their war that matters. If they are inevitably required to bring in conscription, how would that go down? People can be blasé when there's no immediate impact on them or their families. As many have pointed out, as long as the 'west' continues to support Ukraine both militarily and economically, this will be a long war. And how can Russia sustain that without substantial impact on the ordinary Russian citizen? P
I am in a happy mood today thanks to the rugby so here is something on the humorous side.
Russia on week 1 of the invasion of Ukraine. 'everything is going to plan we are mighty we are might we are invincible'
Russia on week 2 'we will defeaaaeeta aalll those natzzies'
Week 3 'everything is ok'
week 4 'watch it... watch it... we v'will nuke you'
Week 5 'We have mega wapper unstoopppl missiles' [this is Putin speaking remember he has a funny voice in case people missed it]
week 10 'NATO is bad it is all NATO'S faulty and Joe Bediaans faulty and Hillery Ckintons fault. [this is still Putin talking in his funny voice again]
week 17 ' were are mighty and will vill turn off the gas and de-strip the world... you ave been v'warred no gas no oil no food no voddaka' [at this stage Putin accent is sounding just daft and slightly drunk]
I lived there for several years, and one of the first surprises I got ( after passing through Sheremetyevo Airport) was that while Moscow ( St. Petersburg etc) were modern cities, rural Russia was a very different story, and surprise Nr 2 was that Ethnic Russians were not very popular throughout the different republics. So while Putin can keep using cannon fodder from the provinces ( so to speak) Muscovites will not get too stressed about what is happening in Ukraine, couple that with extremely aggressive laws forbidding any criticisms' of either Putin or the Military, or the "Limited Action against the Nazi's in Ukraine" and you will not get any major protests in Moscow. The provinces??? Now that's different matter entirely, but even if there were major protests there, Putin would put them down as ruthlessly as he is attacking Ukraine.
I have the feeling that Putin and the regime will find it less easy to control the narrative the longer the war goes on. Long wars are always unpopular no matter who is waging them - people just get sick of them and want them to be over. I've seen one or two Russia experts suggest that the war could even eventually lead to the break up of Russia if it turns into a prolonged war. Civil unrest in the republics could have a snowball effect.
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