At this stage I would question if there are any nukes in Russia and not just siloes. we have seen the rampant corruption. Showing a few ballistics is not the same as saying you have 3k or whatever.
There we have folks, 3-4 weeks til the end of the world, enjoy it while yous can!
Well it might be Friday but Vladimir lost the plot yesterday.
As an old adversary of mine used to say as he threw the biro on the desk
''the game is up''
But it's more like Sherlock Holmes''
'' the game's afoot ''
Give it 3-4 weeks
Ya'd know it was a Friday night.
When the Russian army collapse it will come hard and fast. At present they are totally dependent on there artillery for both defence and offence. If this collapses ( in my opinion it not if it's when,) there whole present strategy will collapse with it.
UA forces will be able to roll back the front very fast. What it took Russia a month to take will be rolled back in days. The biggest issue the UA will find is trying not to let there army get too far ahead of there supply logistics.
I expect the UA to be dropping Putin his Christmas presents at the gate of the Kremlin before Christmas
If they're pushing back in the South and are leaving the East for now then a bombardment of Crimea along with cutting every piece of infrastructure connecting it should follow.
I'd say there's a real chance for the Ukrainians to strike a crippling blow against the Russians by taking out that Crimean bridge. I think they finally have the proper long range accurate weaponry to take out that structure. And the Russians know it. It's why they have just taken measures in the last few days to secure it. A bridge like that is incredibly difficult to put out of commission. But now, the opportunity is there. And with the logistical problems the Russians are about to run into, this could be a hammer blow.
Euronews footage from inside the courtroom.
In Spanish but you get the jist.
What an awful excuse for a country. Pathetic.
Lifted from Euronews.
. Moscow councillor gets seven years in prison for criticising war in Ukraine
Moscow city councillor Alexei Gorinov was sentenced to seven years in prison on Friday for denouncing Russia's war in Ukraine.
Gorinov was found guilty of "disseminating clearly false information" about the Russian military using his "official duties" and doing so as part of an organised group motivated by "political hatred", according to Judge Olesya Mendeleyeva.
"The defendant's rehabilitation is impossible without a sentence of deprivation of liberty," the magistrate said before sentencing him to seven years in a penal colony.
Before she handed down the sentence, the trial audience applauded the defendant, leading to the expulsion from the courtroom of spectators who had come to support him.
Stay classy Putin.
Probably posted a couple of months back but may have got lost in the noise back then. Interesting thread on artillery for those of us that knew nothing about the topic before this war. Information overload for me but I've picked up a bit from it.
The same Twitter user then explains the difference between M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS.
From the second thread this and the following tweets were very insightful.
Was Ireland Threatened again ?
Of what happened a few weeks ago
Muscovites are fairly underrepresented in the Russian armed forces. They are happy to let the poorer regions supply the bulk of the soldiers.
I think its fairly clear that there is zero chance of any kind of popular uprising in Russia. If they support this so be it, its just blood on their hands really.
Kherson
I womder how those young people would feel about being called up to fight? Or their families?
Or the families who have already lost husbands sons brothers
Was out last night with a Russian work colleague who just spent a couple of weeks in Moscow seeing family (via a somewhat circuitous route of course, including Turkey and various ‘Stans’). this is a pro-western individual, here for many years, with an Irish wife and young family. Not some Russia apologist, so I believe what he tells me.
i asked him what the mood was in Moscow among young people. Are sanctions being felt, are people nervous, frustrated with the regime etc
he told me that, yes there are many boarded up shop fronts where foreign stores used to be, but apart from that things are utterly normal. Says that the war has brought people together against the west in a way he has never seen before, including young people. There is a refreshed sense of Russian solidarity. The bars are full, everyone’s enjoying the summer in Gorky Park and the place is buzzing just like normal
people are a little nervous about the winter - shortages, prices etc. But seemingly no more so than here and across the west
I know myself, from my company, that a lot of people being reporting as leaving the country are doing so because their western companies are relocating them. Most of this is to Dubai, which seems like it’s turning into a mini Moscow right now. It’s corporate relocations, not a fleeing of young people from Putins Russia. My MNC has relocated about 30 from the Moscow office to Dubai
long story short, there is seemingly little material anti Putin sentiment among young people and Muscovites. There is broad support for what is happening by people who do have access to non state media.
my own personal experience is that my Russian friends (and I have visited Moscow and other places a few times) have gone very quiet. We used to have regular chats over Facebook and IG. They have definitely drawn back, which probably reflects what I have written above
More precision for Ukraine U.S. sending Ukraine precision artillery rounds, additional HIMARS - The Washington Post
Even if Democrats lose in November lend lease etc is already signed and Biden there for two more years, US spent almost a billion a day on Afghanistan for two decades this is peanuts and very popular with industrial military complex.
Exactly this. Make no doubt there is a bucketload of money to be made in the US pumping out weapons for offshoring, helping the domestic economy at the same time.
China will not be breaking western sanctions and supplying western tech to Russia.
Not instantaneously, which is why the videos are usually a few weeks behind, but in that time they can put together a very comprehensive and professional analysis of events.
Consider the density of troops at the Russian front lines compared to the already captured areas behind them.
One should hardly consider those captured areas as lost forever when it's solely the high density presence on the front line that is preventing infiltration.
Also, it may be a tad easier to recapture "rubblescapes" as opposed to cities and towns. I know some will say it's more difficult due to the cover provided by said rubble but I think that's only if infantry stay behind.
How perfect would it be for Ukraine if Russia had to redeploy their forces to quell unrest in other Russian influenced regions.
I'm sure that some players are encouraging such timely unrest.
I hope it remains that way and some Republican doesn't come along and start with "why are we funding wars in foreign countries instead of building better schools and hospitals etc", even Afghanistan was considered a "waste of American money" at the end and they just handed it back to the Taliban.
Kazakhs seem to be making more noise. Interesting times ahead. The stuff in Uzbekistan I can't get a read on really, the region with the hassle is supposedly close to Kazakhstan but would surely be silly of the Kazakhs to be stirring there right now?
Didn't the Russians replace the local separatists with Russians already? The "war" in the East for the last 8 years was mostly just fuckery. Like letting your neighbour replant their garden and then just cutting any flower that appear and maybe digging a little hole. Not really destroying anything but just enough that nothing will improve.
That's a view, I wouldn't be so sure Austria has the best information available however
His video's have provided the best and most consistent analysis of the conflict since it started imo.
An Austrian source, Austria who's intelligence is riddled with russian's and isn't a NATO member.
For that reason alone, Ukraine can't afford to negotiate. It would be fairly disastrous for the West also, to allow Russia to control such vital resources.
What we're seeing now with the first chink of light that the Ukrainians are finally making some difference. Is disheartening from some western commentary. Maybe it's a threat to what comes next and an upheaval never seen before in Russia. Maybe it's realism. Maybe Putin sees it and for the first time is scared of what comes next.
Maybe. Maybe. Maybe.
But nows not the time for western governments to ease up on military and financial aid.
The laws of nature and humanity require the Russian military to be driven to extinction.
If some governments have humanity and know it is something else.
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