Russia taking the whole south coast is about as fantastical as Ukraine pushing Russia back to their borders though. Its just not going to happen bar a catastrophic collapse in the Ukrainian armed forces.
Sure all the pallets are stockpiled in NI.
An independent and as neutral as possible report minus the usual bullshíte from both sides from an actual phd level military expert in command of troops, who also trained with Ukrianian forces in his capacity as a NATO commander. He stays neutral right up to the end. In essence optimism is good, but being mindful of reality is not bad. It's a good channel to watch and they release reports in English on the regular. They've been pretty much spot on so far.
Holding the Russian lines as they stand will be bloody difficult for Ukraine, driving them back to their border militarily is pipedream level stuff currently. He also makes the point that as it stands the Russians hold a very large percentage of Ukraine's resources. If they take the whole south coast Ukraine will lose the majority of their resources and exports. The irony is that in resources alone if the Russians had taken Kyiv and most of the north and west of the country and Ukraine had instead defended the south like they did Kyiv, while it would be a morale crusher to lose the capital Ukraine as an entity would be in a far better place, now and in the future.
Don't worry . The thumbnail is as graphic as the video gets. Worth the watch and SFW.
But there is no counter narrative in the US to 'go easy' on Putin. Most people hate him (apart from a few nuts on Fox News like Tucker Carlson). People are nearly forgetting that it is the US who are criticised the most by Putin in his speeches, not the countries of Europe.
Ukraine's ability to defend itself and/or take back land are largely dependent on support from the US, so I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss opinions coming out of the country's political circles. None of us know what is going to happen or how far the US is prepared to go to maintain support, particularly with elections looming.
If Ukrainian rocketry can attack Russian supply lines at their narrowest points and even launch a ground offensive in time, they could cut off a large swathe of occupied territory from ground supplies.
At Bakhmut direction Russian army shelled Bakhmut, Spirne, Ivano-Daryivka, Berestove, Pokrovske, Vershyna, Volodymyrivka, Opytne, Toretsk, Zaitseve, Kodema, Klynove and New York. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Vershyna and Vuhlehirsk power station, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
how many more months of artillery can the offence have?
Kherson looks very promising alright.
The big question is what would constitute a "victory" for Putin and the regime. It seems very unclear - I was reading that even Solovyov / Skabayeva and their chums on state TV cannot agree on this, with furious debates in recent days what would constitute a victory and what would be a humiliating defeat. Some of them think that if the war ended tomorrow, what they have taken so far in Ukraine would amount to an embarrassing and humiliating setback.
Wrote from a Russian perspective in 2017 of Ukrainian migrants from the areas of Russia's invasion in 2014 who emigrated to Russia and Crimea instead of remaining in war affected regions. You can guess these were migrants who had an affinity with Russia.
counterattack deep inside seperatist territory
Looks like Germany dont give one fuch about Ukraine!
It still doesn't takeaway from the fact that the russians have occupied a large chunk of Ukrainian territory and for Ukraine to take it back will be as hard or harder than what it took for Russian forces to take it in the first place. Unless the Russian forces just give up and head for the border. That's possible, but not likely, certainly at the moment. Whatever about putin and his acolytes buying into the bullshít of the run on Kyiv being a feint and military tactic, they won't swallow a retreat from Donbas.
Anyone can be the resistance
russia's forces won't hold diddly squat when their artillery advantage is removed from the equation. Ukraine continues to train new troops and continues to receive new weapons, albeit at a pace that could be significantly faster.
How much longer are we going to pretend that Germany are not in Russias pocket
Oh China will buy their oil at firesale prices and already are. Anything much more than that and surface politicking they will not do. It's far too economically risky for them and the Chinese are neither hotheaded nor stupid. Their trading with the US and the EU(never mind all the other nations against Russia), their biggest trading partners and blocs on earth, absolutely dwarf their trade with an economy like Russia's. If they're seen to be sanction busting, especially with any high tech kit, kit that is majority western licenced and made with western technology, they risk the same west imposing sanctions to them. And for what? A trading partner with the same economic clout as the state of Texas? Plus relations between China and Russia have never been exactly rosey.
I'm not assuming anything, just painting a picture of a possible outcome that history has shown is not by any means impossible. I'm not making a prediction or even saying it's likely - just that it's not quite as unlikely as might be imagined. As for the separatists, they might fight on but if Russia cuts them loose and they're facing a resurgent, victorious Ukrainian army, they could be in a bit of a pickle. Again, not a prediction, more an acknowledgement that warfare is the possibly the most complex and unpredictable of all human activities.
The principle is the same, regardless of who the offending dictator is.
That's assuming a few things and leaving out one thing I can think of: Seperatists in Donbas wanting Russian forces to stay. There were enough of them there to sustain a civil war since 2014. Enough of them there that had as many ties to Moscow as they had to Kyiv and going back decades with it. Many of the nationalists will have fled, or will have been or will be removed by Russian forces. How many have they taken into Russia already?
Handsome profits? Possibly, for now. Less handsome absolutely, and with a costly war to fund... Mr Putin is actually small potatoes. He just doesn't realise it yet.
Why John Mearsheimer is wrong about russia, Alexander Stubb, former Prime, Finance, Foreign minister of Finland.
https://youtu.be/vlB-pRqdyBg
Economic sanctions? Anything they want or need they'll just go to China for, they have oil and gas to sell to the rest of the world that they have inflated the price of to historic levels and in the mean time while Europe weans themselves off Russian energy they bank handsome profits from the very nations that are supplying weapons to the Ukranians.
It's fine for the US and Biden to finance this indefinitely but Putin has Europe by the balls and come the winter that squeeze will be almost unbearable.
Comparisons to Hussein are nonsense, he's small fry in comparison to Putin, a verifiable nuclear power.
It'll achieve something if it dissuades the next undersized dictator with an oversized ego from doing something similar. To give Putin the land he wants, especially at the prompting of the west for the sake of its own convenience, would send a message to the world that armed aggression works. Putin needs to learn the same lesson as Galtieri and Saddam Hussein...and experience the same long-term results.
Dunno. Maybe being unable to make a point without being a condescending arsehole?
That, or a russian IP
Anyone just not care anymore? France and Germany would declare the Donbas part of Russia tomorrow if they could and get the taps turned back on. This will drag on for ages yet and achieve nothing.
Yea I think that quote of 200 is being attributed to a former official of Melitopol.
Their quote went something along the lines there were 200 and 300.
200 being code for casualties.
300 code for injuries.
So the 200 figure may not be exactly spot on.
It's clear though there is something of a resurgence deep behind the front line.
The airport/airstrip was used as heavy weapon storage. The train then moved from there to protect the weapons and bring them to Crimea. It was derailed then outside Melitopol with the weapons on board.
It's a daunting prospect, but at the same time I wouldn't rule it out. Numbers are only one factor in deciding wars and battles, and history has shown that morale often trumps numbers. This has happened to the Russians before, for example when the Tsar's army downed rifles and went home in 1917. Russia may have broken the back of the Wehrmacht in WW2. but there was a lot of panicked running away in the lead-up to that achievement; most notably (and ironically) at Kyiv in 1941, where Russian losses - mostly surrendered - were above 500,000. The longer time goes on and victory eludes Putin, as winter sets in and food, fuel and ammunition become more scarce in the Russian front line, the more chance there is of that line buckling and breaking...or just dissolving, even in the face of a numerically-inferior enemy, and particularly in the face of a better-armed, better-trained, better-supplied and more highly-motivated enemy.
This analysis assumes that Putin wouldn't use nuclear weapons. If that happens, all bets are off, of course.
Yea no doubt a new account will appear again soon enough too enlighten us all about the facts...
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