A divided country is ripe for invasion and occupation. The prime example being France in 1940. The sharp divisions in that country led to some right wing politicians almost welcoming the Nazi occupation and blaming the socialists for the collapse. And Vichy France was an enthusiastic Nazi puppet state where Jews were rounded up with great zeal.
No doubt there are sizeable cohorts in the west who would wholeheartedly welcome Russian domination. France is still teetering on the brink. The likes of Trump and Tucker Carlson are hugely prominent in the states. And there are many more Trump copy cats in places like Texas and the Deep South chomping at the bit. Brexit Britain is a nasty development whose outcome is still unclear. It’s not hard to find division in todays world and many politicians and public figures are only too happy to take a crow bar and prize them divisions deeper. It’s so so different to the world we grew up in 30-40 years ago where consensus and pragmatism was the order of the day.
Well I for one didn't see it playing out like that. My prediction way back was and remains the Donbas and land bridge to Crimea is essentially lost, at least in the medium, if not long term. If the Ukrainains can keep the Russians out of Odessa and retain that coast, that's what I'd be heavily concentrating on. That and insurgency support in the conquered lands to tie them down. The Donbas is now, what's the term? Fúcked. Russia is left with a blown apart graveyard they can't afford to rebuild. Or they'll rebuild it Soviet style, minus the quality. The Donbas has been a clusterfúck for years and Ukraine is probably well rid. But they need to keep the Odessa coast.
We keep getting the claim that the Soviet Union / Russia had the most deaths so therefore did the most to win the war, 27 million during WW2, but that is incorrect, China had much more, over 41 million.
We don't get the figures for the Soviet Union Republics very often, suffice to say Ukraine had 7million of the above total.
"Among the Soviet Union's 15 republics, Russia withstood the highest number of casualties, with 6,750,000 military deaths and 7,200,000 civilian deaths. Ukraine tallied the second-highest casualties, with 1,650,000 military deaths and 5,200,000 civilian deaths."
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-war-two-casualties-by-country
If the Ukrainains can keep the Russians out of Odessa and retain that coast, that's what I'd be heavily concentrating on
Which seems overwhelmingly likely. They are significantly more likely to lose Kherson than gain Odessa. The coast is not that much use to them unfortunately until hostilities end, but Russia is significantly further away from invading Odessa than they were 90 days ago.
Remind me, who is supporting Ukraine the most?
I'll give you a clue, its not the pillars of the EU.
And it is those two countries the US and U.K. where Russian interference had its most dramatic results. They obviously knew what they were at targeting those votes in 2016.
They didn’t have to worry about Germany and France they had them where they wanted them.
Ah right, I though there was a conspiracy theories forum for these kinda posts
Are you sure about the timeframe? I don't recall anyone predicting the war would be over by this summer or summer's end - even by early to mid May, it looked like the war could go on for another 6-9 months minimum.
Uk and Russia remind me of that simpsons episode where Mr burns takes the Trillion dollar bill to Cuba. Cubans trouser the money and don't help. I'm sure the uk promised lots of stuff but just took the donations with no intention of doing anything.
Explosions at warehouses with ammunition at Donetsk railway station
Russian propaganda 1922-91: The Soviet Union is a wonderful glorious country.
Russian propaganda 1991-99 vodka is wonderful.
Russian propaganda 2000-14 The Soviet Union was a wonderful country.
Russian propaganda 2014-22 : Nothing is wonderful they are lying to you and nobody can be trusted.
I don't see any impacts, only launches.
I would note that when Russian helicopters were observed firing in a similar indirect manner, it was reported as a sign of desperation and doom, that Ukrainian air defenses were so strong that the Russians had to resort to unusual measures. Example: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44803/russian-attack-helicopters-are-now-wildly-lobbing-rockets-over-ukraine
It's actually a standard technique for Russian helicopters which include those Ukrainian-operated Hips.
They seem to have this weird air artillery doctrine. fly low tilt up fire dumb munitions hope they hit something.
Without the British and America, the Ukraine would have lost by now.
The Communists in France had no problem with the occupation of France and provided every assistance to the Reich on Stalin's orders.
They only switched sides when the Nazi Communist love fest ended.
Sorry May not be clear was talking about the UK taking Russian money. keeping it.
No one predicted a time frame but I think we are all going to be surprised by the duration.
Quite a few military experts even talking about years.
Yeah I wager the Russians will be heavily pushed back into pocket areas. Then a protracted war with rotational ceasefires that are ignored. Dug in situation artillery swapping fire. Vast majority of Ukraine will then go on as normal.
Militarily the US without question. Apart from that it Depends. The EU has opened its borders to all Ukrainians restriction free for the next 3 years while the UK and USA haven’t. Ukraine is chomping at the bit to join the EU and have the EU flag flying in their parliament. The pillars must be doing something right in Ukrainian eyes then.
I remember a NATO spokesman saying a good two months ago that the war might last for years. Definitely not implausible : the Nazi-Soviet battle on the eastern front went on for four years and that was with two big armies slugging it out at full pelt.
I don't think that war is comparable really, even though it has been a constant comparison that people are making. That was basically two superpowers putting millions of soldiers on the line to dictate the future of the world and their survival in it. However I imagine this war will stretch on endlessly as Ukrainian resistance will never end, the hope being that the sheer investment by Russia will break the russian resolve maybe even overthrow the government.
It is gonna be hard to do anything with Russia in near or medium term. Russia is currently producing more oil than prior to invasion and output is close to pre-pandemic levels. That coupled with much higher price... So much for sanctions, they mostly hurt everyone but Russians.
The sooner it all ends the better for everyone.
The question that people should be asking themselves is, is the Russian army and economy as weak as they think.
Russian economy? What economy… they dig up shît from the ground using Western tech/ experience and sell it to a world striving to get away from it… this war has accelerated that shift.
Russia… it ain’t all that.
Nope I wasnt mixing anyone up ,
Thats why I said CIRCA 1200-1350 when Genghis Kahn and the subsequent Mongol Empire - The Khanate of the Golden Horde .....
we can get into the details if you want.
Genghis Khan dies in 1227 , by which time his empire extended to modern day Kazakstan and the periphery of The Crimea. His lieutenants Tchepe and Souboudal-bagadour reached the Caspian sea, the Caucases and the Soutern Steppes.
10 years after his death his son Ougundai sent his nephew (grandson to Genghis Khan) Bati/Batu-Khan back to the west after as you say diverting their efforts to modern day China. And he helped extend the Mongol empire to the shores of the Danube , The Golden Horde or Khanate ran into the mid 1300s. During which time events like when in 1318 Grand Prince George married Kontchaka sister of Uzbek Khan and she was baptized , led to the Tatars stopping being the RUDE SHEPEARDS of The Steppes and they mingled with sedentary and civilised races and went on to rebuild fresh cities on the ruins of those they had destroyed.
So nope I didnt mix anyone up.
Someone had asked had the Russians ever been the good guys, Im just pointing out a period CRICA 1200-1350 when Russia The GRand Princes of Russia came to the aid of tribes like the Polotvski who asked the Russians who at the time were their sworn enemies to come to their aid in the fight against the mongol horde etc etc
bit too fast on the trigger there , your 300 years out of date with your fact check on my post.
I said " So I guess if you ignore Russia saving us from Islam in the 13th century " 13TH CENTURY - I was CLEARLY taking about a period circa 1200-1350, Its not spin or a Russian narrative to say The Grand Princes of Russia fought the Mongol Horde and stopped the spread of Islam in the 12-1300s.
Battles of Vienna was in 1529 , sure that stopped Suleman in the 1500s, but if The Grand Russian Princes had not stopped The Golden Mongol Horde 300 years before whose to say there would have even been a Vienna to defend.
" Russia saving us from Islam in the 13th century " , thats a bit mad to try to contradict that statement by pointing out a similar battle in 1529 300 years later. The only analogy I could make to that wierd time travel history is its a bit like saying America didnt defeat England in the late 1700s because America fought with England 200 years later in WW2 .
So I guess you wont be using any motorised oil fuelled transport system today , or using any modern day petroleum based plastics or textiles , or any light weight metals, or any cereal based food produce, or any steel framed structures.. after all thats all just some sht the Russians dig up, its not like you could base an economy on providing a huge percentage of the raw materials that feed, clothe and shelter the rest of the globe. (not!)
Your also the guy who said Russia was doing little better than ... " A mickey mouse trade deal with say Mali ... "
LEX in the Financial Times reports that Japan, more specifically the Mitsui and Mitsubushi corporatins have said they want to remain as key partners in the Sakhalin-2 Natural gas project. Japan relies on Russian LNG for 10% (circa open to correction) for its energy needs. And even though Shell are exiting the project , Japan wants to remain a key partner (20+% stake) in this .
Sakhalin 2 according to SHELL provides 4% of the worlds LNG needs .
Yet here on boards we have people telling you Russia is losing economically, sure they are losing some economic battles , are they being compensated by other major wins, one could argue they are.
700 Million Euros heading Russias way today, 500 from the EU and 200 from China ... but but they have to discount the price is what some say, thats correct but their break even point on oil is about $40-45 , so any price they get over that is all profit, and oil experts say they give a $15-20 maybe $25 discount on whatever the market is. Oil is close on $108 so thats $80 bucks maybe, which is close on a 100% markup for Russia.
Nope folks time to wake up, our Western leaders have led us down another dead end, the only people in the west suffering are the ordinary man/woman/non-binary/... in the street having to pay thru the nose for ordinary day to day living expenses.
The sanctions were badly thought thru and have backfired catastrophically. Winter will expose the cracks in the mis-guided policy.
If Russia is producing more oil then the law of supply and demand will dictate that the price will drop. If they are selling at a discount to India and China then that means India and China aren’t buying it off their usual sources which means more oil available for western countries from those sources. There is no hint of any supply issues in the current price hikes. Of course the current oil price has as much to do with the low prices over the last 2 years and making up that lost ground.
I know of several large companies who bought 5 years worth of Diesel on future exchanges/ in bulk when the price was 1.30 per litre 2 years ago. That loss to oil corporations has to be paid for. That means ordinary customers like ourselves must pay for it. That’s what we are doing now.
Is that a joke? Russia has displayed stunning ineptitude from the start and shown up their armed forces as a hopelessly obsolete brute-power force.
They had similar problems against the tiny Georgian army in 2008 as well. Horrible logistics and combined arms operations, incredibly poor air force relative to its size and paper strength.
Supposed to have been massive reform since 2008 and increased spending but whole structure rotten to the very core with corruption.
It's every bit as weak as it looks. Whatever about the economy, not even the most ardent of trolls could keep a straight face whilst trying to imply that this whole campaign is anything other than a monumental embarrassment to Russia.
Realistically, if the Russia armed forces were as strong as it should be based on spending, it should have flattened Ukraine conventionally in two weeks, without or without western weapons. It's military budget is about 20x bigger.
The air force is a joke and ground forces barely better. Instead we now have a WW2 style attrition conflict where Russia is just blasting Ukrainian cities and towns to dust with artillery because it cannot gain superiority in the air or in conventional fighting.
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