Are you sure about the timeframe? I don't recall anyone predicting the war would be over by this summer or summer's end - even by early to mid May, it looked like the war could go on for another 6-9 months minimum.
Ah right, I though there was a conspiracy theories forum for these kinda posts
And it is those two countries the US and U.K. where Russian interference had its most dramatic results. They obviously knew what they were at targeting those votes in 2016.
They didn’t have to worry about Germany and France they had them where they wanted them.
Remind me, who is supporting Ukraine the most?
I'll give you a clue, its not the pillars of the EU.
If the Ukrainains can keep the Russians out of Odessa and retain that coast, that's what I'd be heavily concentrating on
Which seems overwhelmingly likely. They are significantly more likely to lose Kherson than gain Odessa. The coast is not that much use to them unfortunately until hostilities end, but Russia is significantly further away from invading Odessa than they were 90 days ago.
We keep getting the claim that the Soviet Union / Russia had the most deaths so therefore did the most to win the war, 27 million during WW2, but that is incorrect, China had much more, over 41 million.
We don't get the figures for the Soviet Union Republics very often, suffice to say Ukraine had 7million of the above total.
"Among the Soviet Union's 15 republics, Russia withstood the highest number of casualties, with 6,750,000 military deaths and 7,200,000 civilian deaths. Ukraine tallied the second-highest casualties, with 1,650,000 military deaths and 5,200,000 civilian deaths."
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-war-two-casualties-by-country
Well I for one didn't see it playing out like that. My prediction way back was and remains the Donbas and land bridge to Crimea is essentially lost, at least in the medium, if not long term. If the Ukrainains can keep the Russians out of Odessa and retain that coast, that's what I'd be heavily concentrating on. That and insurgency support in the conquered lands to tie them down. The Donbas is now, what's the term? Fúcked. Russia is left with a blown apart graveyard they can't afford to rebuild. Or they'll rebuild it Soviet style, minus the quality. The Donbas has been a clusterfúck for years and Ukraine is probably well rid. But they need to keep the Odessa coast.
A divided country is ripe for invasion and occupation. The prime example being France in 1940. The sharp divisions in that country led to some right wing politicians almost welcoming the Nazi occupation and blaming the socialists for the collapse. And Vichy France was an enthusiastic Nazi puppet state where Jews were rounded up with great zeal.
No doubt there are sizeable cohorts in the west who would wholeheartedly welcome Russian domination. France is still teetering on the brink. The likes of Trump and Tucker Carlson are hugely prominent in the states. And there are many more Trump copy cats in places like Texas and the Deep South chomping at the bit. Brexit Britain is a nasty development whose outcome is still unclear. It’s not hard to find division in todays world and many politicians and public figures are only too happy to take a crow bar and prize them divisions deeper. It’s so so different to the world we grew up in 30-40 years ago where consensus and pragmatism was the order of the day.
Actually a few weeks ago the "victory" camp here were making very clear predictions of what a win meant: Russia being pushed right out of Ukraine, Crimea being retaken, and this all happening very quickly.
Yes, propaganda appeals to the emotions on a very basic level. People who think objectively and with conscience are immune to it.
Indeed. A lot can still happen and it would be great if Ukraine can ultimately emerge victorious. Unfortunately the only thing certain is more suffering and destruction along the way, where it all ends up time will tell
And again...
As Grayson has already given a good enough answer I will add my voice to that. Ukraine is set up for modern warfare and Russia is basically doing it WW2 style. Once Russia gets bogged down, like when the invasion started, they will find things much harder to do anything. That's why Putin is in such a rush to force the Russian army to get moving despite all the losses their army is suffering. Russia can not sit and wait. Come September Ukraine will have much better mobility and hopefully air support. without air support, things could be very messy for them on the ground. With Ukraine jets in the air, Russian ground units will lose all confidence and look for an exit. Especially conscripts and young men. With no Ukraine air support they [Russia] will dig in and that's where it gets messy. Ukrainian choppers and jets in the air will have a very important psychological effect. The Ukraine must also make sure Russia cannot regroup or resupply when the push takes place.
I'm pretty grateful my grandfathers both fought the Soviets in WW2 so I didn't have to live in a communist state. The Soviets weren't the good guys in every part of Europe.
The long term outlook for the war and for Russian politics is actually extremely difficult to predict. Even the likes of NATO and Pres. Biden are saying that they don't really know how long the war will last and how it will end, just that it won't end in Putin taking Kyiv and all of Ukraine.
Those who are saying that Ukraine will 'win' the war are not specifying how long this will take or what victory would even look like. In truth, nobody really knows what the next year or two hold. The war might still be underway or long over, who knows.
No and I wasn't thinking of your posts particularly. There are equally gung ho posts for Ukraine. The truths lie somewhere else I guess. But sometimes you can perceive a subtle line of reasoning in some posters contributions, to sow half truths and seeds of division. Whether these are just ordinary folk or paid propagandists I have no idea.
Best of luck to Ukraine but the sound track to that and the Eurovision song are Fuckin horrendous.
How am I (and some others) “undermining the Ukrainian situation” by suggesting that the war is not completely going Ukraine’s way, and there will likely be challenges with western solidarity and cost and weapons shipments (something many military experts are saying). Do you just want a ‘Ukraine is ultimately going to kick Russia’s ass’ echo chamber?
It's an odd line of argument ZenNature engages in on here as well. He mocks EU countries for "sending money to Russia", and also says sanctions are useless and just hurt us and don't affect Russia. However more money for hydrocarbons (and worse, technology + dual use exports that can be turned on Ukraine) would be flowing into Russia were trade continuing as normal. I don't think that is going to help us here in Europe, given Russia's aims? They don't end with Ukraine IMO.
So he has no bananas and is just hawking demoralisation. When you try to persuade people that our political leaders are wrong, there's no point taking any economic actions against Russia, and also suggest no solutions or alternatives, that's all it is.
As I've said before a focus of trolls on reducing public support for sanctions with such messages, the occasional bursts of fury and frustration coming from Russia's leadership (I think Medvedev and Putin have described these sanctions as "acts of war" on Russia by the US/EU), Russia's wheedling with the UN & non Western countries, trying to use their hold on grain exports to pressure/bully the West to get them lifted...that all tells the real story of negative effects these sanctions have + will have on Russia.
I did mean to add, before I went off on a James Bond theme... that I think there'll be diminishing returns for them. They had huge success when people didn't realise it was a thing. Now, people (some at least) are more aware.
Another Putin setback! Lol
I'm seeing a huge amount of pushback as well though. The vast legions of Putin bots and Russian propagandists on social media are frequently called out and strongly challenged, something that was rarely happening pre-invasion. Their efforts to promote the regime worked much better in peacetime and are less suited to war.
Not surprising. They've had great successes in the past, such as Brexit, Trump and the rise of the far right (agitation in the West)... their traditional methods of warfare have gone to pot, but Russia do seem to be pouring their money into a James Bond like plot to influence the world through SM.... "Russia is not Enough"?
It's interesting to watch this thread and whilst being aware on one's own inherent biases, to see patterns in how others present arguments. No doubt at all in my mind, but that there are some carefully crafted posts here, designed to subtly undermine the Ukrainian situation by appealing to Irish citizen concerns over war induced inflation etc. Give people something to believe in and split the opposition etc.
The reason Russia waited was because most of their forces were mechanized. There were tanks etc that couldn't move as well through soggy ground. That would mean that the Russian forces won't be as maneuverable during the coming winter.
Ukraine doesn't have that many tanks. And the way the war has been going, it's turned into an artillery slogging match. And the Russians have far more artillery than Ukraine. So they just bombard Ukrainian positions and move forward. It's slow, but it works.
However NATO standard artillery has a longer range than the Russian stuff. So with NATO resupplying Ukraine with better, longer ranged and more accurate artillery and rockets, when winter comes, Ukraine will be able to hit Russians without getting hit back. And because the Russian tanks won't be as maneuverable, they'll be easier targets.
The NATO artillery units don't have to be together, they can be tens of miles from each other and they can target remotely. So you pick a spot to hit and all the artillery stops, sets up, and 10 minutes later they bombard that spot. Then packs up and moves before Russians can hit them. The artillery can fire multiple rounds per minute so they can effectively cover an area with shells.
So at that point, the balance of the war shifts towards Ukraine. And they follow the russian tactics of a slow slog forward.
Of course, that's just two dimensions. It's not including Airforces or any other number of variables, but I'm assuming that's what the poster you were quoting meant.
Alternatively the US could send her mug to Ukraine and the Russians would flee immediately.
And... Fission FTW 😎
There's loads of western countries that build nuclear reactors. They're all across europe. It's not like it's hidden technology.
There's american companies developing modular reactors. Small ones that can be dotted around a city. And the Chinese are working on thorium reactors.
The Russians don't have any new technology. The majority of their existing reactors were built during soviet times and a lot are of a similar model to the one that blew up at Chernobyl.
BTW, that article says that
There were 439 nuclear reactors in operation around the globe in 2021, and 38 of them were in Russia, an additional 42 were made with Russian nuclear reactor technology, and 15 more under construction at the end of 2021 were being built with Russian technology.
That's not a huge amount. It also states that there's other places that build reactors, France, USA, Korea, China etc...
And even if you have a russian made reactor, you can get maintenance from other places.
The only bottleneck in that article is uranium enrichment.
If wet ground and the cold were supposedly impediments to the Russian invasion, would it not work the same way against the Ukrainians looking to advance & recapture their territories?
Winter would mean offensive actions are more difficult for both sides, the idea that the seasons change and the Ukrainians suddenly switch into 5th gear seems more like blind optimism than based in reality
The disconnect here is huge, but good insight into Russian thinking though.
Do you really think the Climate crises is going to take precedence over a Russian invasion where they are targeting civilians, raping and pillaging, with ambitions to go further. Sorry, Greta... it aint. Russian is a pariah for the West - who are they going to sell nuclear plants to? Eritrea ?
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