Following on from
this thread
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Like Darragh O Brien who has now declared he has no responsibility over housing issues, Stephen Donnelly might try the same approach here
36% in the middle of summer 2022 is no indication of anything at an election in 2024 or 2025. FG got a huge seat bonus because people completely dropped FF as transfer choices, something SF really can't guarantee and their strategy will almost be FPTP. The risk there is picking too many candidates in the wrong places. It's of no use for SF to have 36%+ in a place like Louth where they will easily get candidates in but it does need to be managed where they can bring someone new in and maybe help a potential ally get in as well. It's not the seats they get, it's their ability to do deals for government and there are few that will. As I said the larger SF become the less attractive they are as a government partner to other parties.
The reason they keep him is because there is no actual need to replace him. Parties don't do this on a whim and generally prefer an ordered approach. They are halfway into a third successive term in government and may even get a fourth one. The election of 2024/2025 IMO will decide his fate either way, whether he steps away or is replaced after it although if in government he might want to get to 10 years first!
Possible trouble ahead in Paradise?
It will be fun when they explain to the public how this needs to be paid for!
Seems Fianna Fail have gone back to their populists roots. They were about increasing social welfare by €15 and now no increase in the pension age. They've probably forgotten that they bankrupted the county before by making populists decisions. Also, who's going to pay for this, probably the squeezed middle again.
Back of a pad calculations, just rough and approximate....
Average yearly salary is €44,202 PA
Assuming Maximum borrowing @3.5 gross salary = €154, 707 can be borrowed but deposit requires (10%)
Okish so far
Minimum Deposit (10 %) €15,000
Assuming 2% mortgage rate, payment roughly €578.00 pm but realistically ongoing expense would be €638.00 (Figures approx)
Gross Monthly Salary €3683.00 (not sure what net would be)
Net Mortgage cost. €638.00
So yes at a basic level this would be manageable but this assumes the property will actually sell for €150k (it won't)
Obviously buyer might have a bigger deposit.
This assumes absolutely no improvements required (Unlikely)
And of course doesn't factor in property Tax, Insurance etc.
But of course it also assumes the buyer is actually getting the Average industrial wage, which of course you know full well, many don't.
So at a basic level and I'm not sure why your obsessing about a handful of reasonably priced houses in locations that will suit less than more potential home buyers, this property, May be affordable but it may not and location a big factor.
Looking a base price of a cheap house is really pointless unless all the variables considered and the fact remains, wether you'll accept it or not the availability of affordable homes or indeed any homes is extremely limited.
As I said the larger SF become the less attractive they are as a government partner to other parties.
That's your read but I don't buy it. IMO if the chance was there for SF to form a government without the involvement of FG or FF there would be a massive onus on all sections of the left to row in. Think about: if you're the Labour party with three seats and an uncertain future, would you not jump at the offer of a ministerial position and the chance to serve in a 'true left' government?
On the other hand if SF fall short of those numbers the pressure would come on FF to facilitate them. As I said above, would FF really want to put a jaded FG back in power when SF are after reciving a massive 'mandate for change'...
They can't put up the welfare as they already gave 3bn away before the budget.
My take is that the left won't easily buy into SF hijacking all of their agendas. Most of these parties don't like each other and SF would have to soften their stance on things. That immediately causes problems for them. Additionally Indos are notoriously unpredictable in their demands, unless they happen to have FF/FG genes.
For a party like Labour there may be other options. I also think there is more hope of success in my newly-formed under 7s winning a league than such an arrangement making it even 12 months.
My main and genuine concern is the actual quality of government ministers. SF could muster maybe 4-5 decent quality ministers but the rest of the left would be lucky to get a handful between them. Then there are the potential policies...
While being in government seems likely in this term, hes a disaster as a politician. They could have Harris there and he'd serve as a place keeper, which is all varadkar is. They would be wrong to dump him now but I've a feeling MM will dissolve the partnership once his go is over.
More political cowardice. The pension age needs to increase and the level of benefits paid to pensioners needs to reduce - everyone knows this, just none of em have the balls to do so. the current situation is beyond unsustainable at this stage
Sean Fleming getting agitated on Drivetime. I imagine some government TDs and Ministers cannot wait for the summer holidays.
It's not the only one available at that price.
Don't know about that, the opposition have had the same policy for years without saying how they will pay for it.
I wager that's a bit of a commute to Dublin. Is cork not well outside the commuter belt.
You can get a two-bed apartment in the centre of Navan for less.
You think in the middle of the housing crisis that would not have been snapped up. Or would their be a reason no one has.
Why are you going to such lengths to try and prove that there's no housing crisis? Honestly. It's bananas.
I'd say more political reality. Politicians are always focused on the next election, and nobody is going to make any gains there by tackling the pension issue. Let the long term take care of itself is always the atiitude...
If I meet him over the weekend, he'll be even more agitated 😉
That would be neither here nor there at that price. The headline is that everyone should trundle around the country to acquire housing. A house is a house is a house according to Blanch.
I think the Answer is obvious 😉
Get 3bn out of MM's other back pocket.
I cannot comprehend the ignorant shortsightedness of this decision.
Of course not one politician in favour of it will be in office when the time bomb this is creating will go off.
By 2040 we will have gone from a worker to retiree ratio of 5:1 currently to 3:1 and then 2:1 by 2050. There is literally no possible way to keep the current pension system going in such a situation but there isnt one politician who will admit this or is even trying to find a solution.
The fact he had to be told and didn't seem to know that not everyone who is struggling has a medical card was telling.
I will literally hit retirement age in 2050. I will hopefully be long finished by then, but I'm with you. For something so far away, they sure as hell can't manage to take the sting out of it.
Then again we'd rather give the OAPs an extra fiver in October than plan for the long-term.
The back pocket is full of magic money trees
A big part of the problem is people not understanding how the state pension system works and far too many honestly believe they are paying into some private reserve for themselves when in actuality their PRSI from today is paying someones pension tomorrow.
I dont see any way to fix this beyond pushing everyone into a private pension scheme.
But I thought the solution was already here. Importing low skilled labour to do the jobs Indigenous Irish people will not. And obviously they will not avail of a pension in the end. There is no thought to a root to branch solution. What kind of jobs need to be created what skills will be needed. Have you been into most MCD's there automated these jobs will be shed. Like so much with the coming automation and big AI.
My God, but hardly surprising given how out of touch he is, he also thinks everyone on SW entitled to Fuel allowance and of course one of those telling folks to pop into their nearest SW office for a few bob if they are stuck, it's just beggar's belief
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