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June 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Predict the IMT (13.6 is the average 1981-2010 value).

2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

6. BONUS _ 21st of June is the summer solstice. Predict the maximum amount of sunshine at any location in Ireland from this list of sunshine recording stations (giving the location with your forecast) _ Belmullet, Casement, Cork, Dublin, Johnstown Castle, Shannon, Valentia. There are other locations that sometimes report, but I am taking the seven that seem to be always in the daily reports. The maximum possible for this would be around 15-16 hours depending on each station's exposure and latitude, but for the contest I will count any forecasts of 14.0 hours or above as being equal for scoring purposes. Seven points for the sunshine duration part, five for the location based on top five scoring 5,4,3,2,1 ... which gives possible super-bonus points.

Deadline as always is 0300h 1st of June.

M.T. Cranium ______14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.3 _ 105 _ 105 __ 10.8h Johnstown (may change some of these by deadline)

NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 7.0h (scores x/5 for location depending on average values)

note: The average sunshine duration is about 5-6 hours but I would expect that at random that would mean one location might reach 7.0 hours.

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Tae laidir

Finner Camp inched its way to 20.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT 12.7 which was 0.2 below normal for the period.

MAX 20.6 and MIN 2.1

PRC 76% of normal.

SUN 91.7% of normal, 550/600 hours.

Going off line to 14th or perhaps 15th, will check back in then with second week report.

appledrop

New Max of 21.7 yesterday at Phoneix Park.

Yesterday was a mad day. It was lashing rain and only 12 degrees here in Dublin until about 3pm and then the evening turned into a scorcher.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 13.3 C, the second week was 14.0 (0.5 above nbormal).

MAX 21.7, MIN 2.1 ,,, MAX possibly up a bit today, likely more so Thursday-Friday.

PRC now at 78% with the second week average 81%, south rather dry, north near average.

SUN at 86% with second week a bit on the cloudy side (except at Casement), 80.3% (482/600).

The current models for 21st looking partly cloudy with best sunshine prospects in west Munster.

mr.stonewall

And a very reduced rainfall, that's me snookered with the PRC at 130%. Just think we are starting to head into drought territory

appledrop

New Max 22.1 at Oak Park which I'm sure will be beaten tomorrow and maybe today awell.

It's already 18 degrees here at Dublin Aiport at 9am.

appledrop

New Max 23.9 yesterday at Phoneix Park.

That may not be beaten today, its very dull here in North County Dublin this morning and rain in others parts of country.

Gonzo

23.9 is the max yesterday at an official Met Eireann station but it did reach 25C in a few stations in south Dublin yesterday reported on meteociel and another station near Tallaght got quite close to 26C yesterday. 23.9C could well end in being the official high for yesterday but this was well beaten in some parts of Dublin which probably got more lucky with longer duration of sunshine and the urban heat affect combined.

22C currently being reported at Johnstown Castle but I reckon temperatures were higher than that in places between 6am and 8am this morning. It is frustrating we do not have more official weather stations where higher temperatures would have been recorded.

appledrop

As expected the Max wasn't beaten yesterday and remains at 23.9.

M.T. Cranium

Some chance of a higher reading by Wed-Thurs of this coming week, if there's enough sunshine. Uppers are warm enough to support mid-20s.

M.T. Cranium

21st June sunshine predictions

Danno ______________14.9h Dublin

Adam240610 ________ 14.0h Dublin

Appledrop ___________12.3h Johnstown

MrSkinner ___________12.0h Dublin

Bsal _______________ 11.0h Valentia

Dasa29 _____________11.0h Belmullet

M.T. Cranium ________ 10.8h Johnstown

Sunflower3 __________10.0h Johnstown*

Jpmarn _____________ 9.0h Belmullet

DOCARCH ___________8.8h Casement

Joe Public ___________ 8.4h Shannon

___ Con Sensus ______ 8.4h

Dacogawa ___________ 8.2h Dublin

Kindred Spirit ________ 8.0h Dublin

Mr stonewall _________ 7.8h Johnstown*

Pauldry _____________ 7.4h Casement

johnmac ____________ 7.0h Belmullet

___ NormaL _________ 7.0h (loc'n score tbd)

Artane2002 __________ 6.8h Dublin

Gonzo ______________ 6.3h Dublin

waterways ___________6.0h Valentia

Tae laidir ____________ 3.0h Johnstown

sryanbruen __________ 2.5h Casement

________________

* these two had Oak Park, which does not report sunshine,

changed to Johnstown Castle as nearest location.

SCORING TO APPEAR BELOW THE 3rd week update on WED 22nd

Tae laidir

Looks like nice sunny afternoon, especially in the South East.

pauldry

Whichever of yas have Johnstown has won the bonus and could be 10 hours plus of sunshine there

appledrop

That's mad Pauldry overcast all day here in North County Dublin so I thought I didn't have a hope with my 12hours of sunshine but might not be as bad as I thought.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119230652#Comment_119230652

13.7 hours.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1539372232262176769?s=20&t=__eg4lArvfRFAIIYRHxbow

appledrop

Wow look at how little sunshine there was as at the other stations.

As my father woukd say I got jammy with my answer!

M.T. Cranium

Well look they've done the work for me there, figures this would be the one time in a hundred where Johnstown Castle had tons more sunshine than Oak Park which I assigned to them, from satellite imagery would estimate Oak Park would have had 2-3 hours, Valentia did better, but nevertheless I will stick to my announced rules and score the contest in a few minutes after I do the forecast. Back in a while ...

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for the bonus question -- maximum sunshine on 21st

Note, in the opening post I said seven points for duration and five for location, then when discussing scores in the table of forecasts that became six and six. I decided to use the 7 and 5 method. That reduces the scores mentioned for Con and NormaL locations by one.

As nobody picked Cork (which finished fourth 1.0h) and Shannon, Dublin tied at 0.3h, the location scores are 5 for Johnstown Castle (13.7), 4 for Valentia (5.1), 3 for Casement (1.5), 2 for Belmullet (0.5) and 1 for either Dublin or Shannon (0.3). By the rules, the one forecast at 14.9h would be handled as 14h but even without that it finished second anyway. Sunshine hours are scored from top to bottom in similar groups of three or four forecasts, from seven to one points.

Congrats to Appledrop who snagged the two superbonus points available. I managed one superbonus point from the second scoring group. Bsal had the full ten points from two second place scores and sunflower3 managed ten also.

I said earlier that Oak Park may have had only 3-4 hours sunshine but their max of 22.2 suggests maybe the sun got through the cloud more often, the hourly reports suggest maybe 5-8 hours, so I probably made the better choice by going to JC than Casement which looks a bit closer on the map.

Anyway, it is what it was, and my next visit will be to update the third week stats which I cannot do until 1300h.

FORECASTER ________ Forecasts _______ Scores

Danno ______________14.9h Dublin ______7, 1 ___ 8

Adam240610 ________ 14.0h Dublin ______7, 1 ___ 8

Appledrop ___________12.3h Johnstown ___7, 5 ___12

MrSkinner ___________12.0h Dublin ______7, 1 ____8

Bsal _______________ 11.0h Valentia _____6, 4 ___10

Dasa29 _____________11.0h Belmullet ____6, 2 ___ 8

M.T. Cranium ________ 10.8h Johnstown ___6, 5 ___ 11

Sunflower3 __________10.0h Johnstown* __5, 5 ___ 10

Jpmarn _____________ 9.0h Belmullet ____ 5, 2 ___ 7

DOCARCH ___________8.8h Casement ____ 5, 3 ___ 8

Joe Public ___________ 8.4h Shannon _____4, 1 ___ 6

___ Con Sensus ______ 8.4h (see o.p.) ____4, 4 ___ 8

Dacogawa ___________ 8.2h Dublin ______ 4, 1 ___ 5

Kindred Spirit ________ 8.0h Dublin ______ 4, 1 ___ 5

Mr stonewall _________ 7.8h Johnstown* __4, 5 ___ 9

Pauldry _____________ 7.4h Casement ___ 3, 3 ___ 6

johnmac ____________ 7.0h Belmullet ____ 3, 2 ___ 5

___ NormaL _________ 7.0h (see o.p.) ____3, 5 ___ 8

Artane2002 __________ 6.8h Dublin ______3, 1 ___ 4

Gonzo ______________ 6.3h Dublin ______ 2, 1 ___ 3

waterways ___________6.0h Valentia _____ 2, 4 ___ 6

Tae laidir ____________ 3.0h Johnstown ___ 1, 5 ___ 6

sryanbruen __________ 2.5h Casement ____ 1, 3 ___ 4

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT 13.7 wuth third week average 14.0, 0.4 above normal.

MAX 23.9 MIN 2.1

PRC has fallen to 64% of normal with this week only 31% (dry south and east, near normal north)

SUN has edged up slightly to reach 90 per cent, the third week 98% (587/600).

Bonus scored in previous post (Johnstown 13.7 hours)

Looking rather wet and cloudy for the final week and a bit, with similar temps so an estimated finish now looks like this:

13.9 _ 24.2 _ 2.1 _ 080 _ 080

(the MAX is somewhat optimistic for tomorrow, it might stay at 23.9)

M.T. Cranium

Looks like MAX had a close encounter (23.8 at Oak Park) but remains on 23.9. The IMT has edged up to 13.94 as of 23rd, will check it again after today and perhaps it will briefly touch 14.0 before sinking back down into the mid-13s probably. PRC could go on a tear especially if any of that very late rainfall for 1st of July gets in early enough to count.

pauldry

Prec is already on a tear MT in the South and West mostly but rain till now very low in them areas.

I thought IMT was around 14c not 15. How did that happen?

M.T. Cranium

You may have read that before an edit, I had been looking at CET (UK) and IMT values and for a while the post said near 15.0 which is where the CET now finds itself, the IMT as you say is near 14. I edited it again and took out the explanation which at this point is more confusing than helpful.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT stayed at 13.94 and that seems likely to be the peak. Will predict 13.7 as its final value.

There was enough rainfall on Friday in the grid to add 20% to the PRC value and looks like adding about 5-10 per cent a day for most of the way in now, that has PRC up to around 90 per cent already and heading for over 100 now. Valentia alone had 41 mm on Friday. So far in this rainfall event the east has almost escaped but eventually I think it will even out.

SUN would finish below 80 per cent if the rest of the month averaged 50 per cent.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208431#Comment_119208431

I also went for 130%, we could now actually be in with a chance looking at amount of rainfall forecast for next few days.

mr.stonewall

What has fell in the homemade rain gauge (kids bucket in the lawn) is north of 70mm since Thursday night. Big split down the middle of the country on rainfall

M.T. Cranium

IMT has stayed on 13.9 although it lost .06 over the past two days. PRC looks to be close to 90% now. Some locations are slightly above their normals already, others (east and far north) are closer to 60 per cent. The blend is about 90% and will probably ease into the 100-105 range with the additional rainfalls. When I say 90% I mean 90% of total monthly rather than a spot measurement which is likely close to normal now.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 13.9, fourth week average was 14.3, 0.1 below normal. Thinking it will finish on 13.8 (only 13.86 to make 13.9).

MAX 23.9, MIN 2.1

PRC has moved up to 122% thanks to an average of 296% for the fourth week. It will likely finish around 120%.

SUN 85% as the fourth week average was merely 68.8% (413/600). May finish close to 80%.

BONUS scoring already posted.

JULY 2022 thread open for business.

mr.stonewall

Below is a graphic from the farmers journal showing rainfall, SMD and soil temp. It's covers the week from the 22nd to the 28th (our monsoon). Shows the real divide in what feel and the serious difference from West to East. They have a full page to weather weekly

Credit. Irish farmers Journal

M.T. Cranium

IMT 13.8 and PRC close to 120% ... may be the 5th before we see final values confirmed.

May offer some preliminary scoring in the meantime.

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary scoring for June 2022

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS __ TOTALS

__ estimated values ___ 13.8_23.9_2.1_120_080___13.7 JC

Tae laidir ____________ 18 _ 16*_ 02 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 6 ______ 62

Sunflower3 __________ 19 _ 01*_ 09 _ 13 _ 05 ___10 ______ 57

Joe Public ___________ 19 _ 04*_ 20 _ 05 _ 02 ___ 6 ______ 56

Adam240610 _________20 _ 14*_ 17 _ 11 _ 05 ___ 8 ______ 75

Danno ______________ 21 _ 05*_ 10 _ 00 _ 01 ___ 8 ______ 45

Dasa29 _____________ 21 _ 18*_ 06 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 8 ______ 62

Pauldry _____________ 21 _ 20*_ 14 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 6 ______ 73

Artane2002 __________22 _ 10*_ 05 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 4 ______ 51

Dacogawa ___________ 22 _ 10*_ 19 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 5 ______ 76

M.T. Cranium _________22 _ 12*_ 18 _ 10 _ 05 ___11 ______ 78

sryanbruen __________ 22 _ 16*_ 06 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 4 ______ 66

___ Con Sensus ______ 22 _ 12*_ 13 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 8 ______ 68

MrSkinner ___________23 _ 06*_ 17 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 8 ______ 68

Bsal _______________ 23 _ 14*_ 13 _ 05 _ 05 ___10 ______ 70

Jpmarn _____________24 _ 02*_ 10 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 7 ______ 53

waterways __________ 24 _ 03*_ 12 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 6 ______ 54

DOCARCH ___________24 _ 17*_ 17 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 8 ______ 77

Mr stonewall ________ 24 _ 09*_ 13 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 9 ______ 75

Kindred Spirit _______ 23 _ 11*_ 11 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 5 ______ 62

johnmac ____ (-1) ____23 _ 11*_ 19 _ 09_ 05 ___ 5 _ 72-1=71

___ NormaL _________23 _ 11*_ 19 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 8 ______ 75

Appledrop __________ 21 _ 18*_ 18 _ 12 _ 10 ___12 ______ 91

Gonzo _____________ 21 _ 20*_ 03 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 3 ______ 62

__ * __ minimum progression applied to MAX scoring.

will re-post when values are confirmed, and place in scoring order. Congrats to appledrop for one of our highest scores in a while.

__ annual update and category scoring will appear then.

============================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN ___ Max sun 21st

Tae laidir ____________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 094 ___ 3.0h Johnstown

Sunflower3 __________ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 __ 10.0h Johnstown*

Joe Public ___________ 14.4 _ 27.3 _ 2.1 _ 089 _ 120 ___ 8.4h Shannon

Adam240610 _________14.3 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 107 _ 105 __ 14.0h Dublin

Danno ______________ 14.2 _ 26.7 _ 3.1 _ 065 _ 125 __ 14.9h Dublin

Dasa29 _____________ 14.2 _ 24.5 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 11.0h Belmullet

Pauldry _____________ 14.2 _ 24.2 _ 1.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 7.4h Casement

Artane2002 __________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 3.6 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 6.8h Dublin

Dacogawa ___________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 097 ___ 8.2h Dublin

M.T. Cranium _________14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.3 _ 105 _ 105 __ 10.8h Johnstown

sryanbruen __________ 14.1 _ 25.1 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 2.5h Casement

___ Con Sensus ______ 14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.8 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 8.4h (see below)

MrSkinner ___________14.0 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 100 _ 100 __ 12.0h Dublin

Bsal _______________ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 2.8 _ 090 _ 103 __ 11.0h Valentia

Jpmarn _____________13.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 103 ___ 9.0h Belmullet

waterways __________ 13.9 _ 27.4 _ 2.9 _ 091 _ 109 ___ 6.0h Valentia

DOCARCH ___________13.9 _ 24.9 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 108 ___ 8.8h Casement

Mr stonewall ________ 13.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.8 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 7.8h Johnstown*

Kindred Spirit _______ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 8.0h Dublin

johnmac ____ (-1) ____13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 103_ 107 ___ 7.0h Belmullet

___ NormaL _________13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.0h (loc'n score tbd)

Appledrop __________ 13.4 _ 24.5 _ 1.9 _ 130 _ 080 __ 12.3h Johnstown

Gonzo _____________ 13.4 _ 24.2 _ 3.8 _ 098 _ 095 ___ 6.3h Dublin