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Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    This is where it ends for the Japanese and where it will end for us should the ECB continue with its QE or even just take a temporary break until next year. Not pretty for the Japanese but a warning for us here and why we really need to see assets taken down a few notches as they are uncoupled from the real economy in the West.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The underlying reason for the current yen weakness is the rearguard action taken by the bank by the short selling. Hedge funds mounted an attack on Japanese bonds in March. They came away licking their wounds and having lost a lot of money trying to play chicken with the BOJ. They're back for a second bite of the cherry.

    I don't have a crystal ball, but the BOJ has enormous firepower to see off these short-selling geronimo attacks. The hedge funds in question are likely to go bust before the central bank of the third largest economy in the world. I don't think the BOJ will lose their nerve here, they have trillions in cash reserves to throw at this, and it's not like they'll need a fraction of it to teach the hedge funds a lesson.



  • Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Uniper's gas supply is down 60%, ENI in Italy 40% & OMV & Engie SA in Austria and France badly hit also. Germany and Canada trying to find a workaround to the sanctions. No idea how long it will take but they are dipping into storage reserves for Winter already instead of increasing them.


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Turkstream closing for a week for maintenance



    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Putin took this opportunity because the wider global economy but especially Western Europe was in such a difficult and vulnerable place.


    He is shoving against an unsteady wall. He is not the reason the wall is unsteady.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭tooka


    to Me Putin decided to move as inflation was high , not the official figure but the actual real figure.

    there is a disconnect between reported official figures and the real figures

    inflation we are told in may 2022 is officially 8.2% which is not true, from the start of this year pre the war I estimated for an internal work report that real inflation would hit 10% this year. This was before the war kicked off.

    we are now entering the perfect storm where we have very high energy prices because of the war and as the transition to green energy escalates so will energy prices. I expect real inflation to reach 15% before end of summer.

    We are I think entering very dangerous water where anything is possible including a very serious recession worse then 2007 and eventually a land war with Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,324 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Not a land war with Russia as their army has been effectively wiped out already. Any war will be a nuclear conflict so unlikely to happen.

    If things get bad enough the green policies will go in the bin and we will go back to cheap energy from Russia. If that doesn’t happen people around Europe will just start electing the worst type of lunatics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,299 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Janet Yellen says a recession in the USA is not inevitable:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0619/1305765-us-treasury-janet-yellen/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,046 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,299 ✭✭✭✭Geuze



    "The Sahm Rule for determining a recession onset in real time is based on a greater than 50 bps increase in the 3 month moving average unemployment rate relative to its low in the preceding 12 months."



  • Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]



    Here we go.Big changes coming to Europe parlaments and Ireland will not be exception.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,712 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    With rates going up and up in the US a credit crunch is happening in silicon valley. The tech job losses are going to start here soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,229 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Which will have a huge impact the rental sector in Dublin City



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,932 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    Credit crunch hits growing firms, which generally haven’t opened an office in Ireland yet. A lot of the big companys in Ireland like Google, Microsoft and Intel are printing money and don’t need to worry too much about a credit crunch. Meta are really the only big tech company here sweating but it’s nothing to do with credit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Wholesale prices still lagging producers prices but still rising quickly

    wpi.png


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    PPI just in. Highest number since 1949, car sales are going to suffer big time

    ppi.png


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    The actual cause of inflation doesn't really matter.

    Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. Whether the cause of inflation is supply shortages or money printing makes no difference.

    More people want to buy new cars than there are new cars available. You can say this is down to supply shortages but that's no good to anyone when inflation is rampant. So what do we need to do? We need to match supply with demand. So we're not able to ramp up supply or else we'd have done it already, so what needs to be done is kill the demand. This is why rates need to go higher. Of all those people wanting to buy new cars, many of them will not buy a new car when the cost of finance reaches a certain point.

    And the inflationary spiral has already begun now too. Ask any business owner if they can get workers. I was chatting to a valet + other services business owner at the weekend and he said he was looking for a young lad of 16 or 17 to give him a hand on a Saturday 9-5. He can not get anyone. He said one lad rang, he said he'd train him up and all of that and the young lad tells him..."I want 200 euro a day". Business owner said he wouldn't make that in the whole week doing them!



  • Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    No worries.The turbines on Nord Stream 2 are brand new.All they need is get certification signed on in Germany .



  • Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    EU foreign affairs minister Borell said that EU canceled sanctions against fertilizer and farming production from Russia and every EU country are free buy them from Russia.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,322 ✭✭✭The One Doctor




  • Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Who cares ? This world about the money and warm seats.

    If people will come on streets and elections will win nationalists socialists and communists EU will fall on parts.Ukraine doesn't worth this hassle.Beter Ukraine will be part of Russia than EU will fall on parts and many rich people will lose money

    Actually EU will fall on parts any way :).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Can you hear the ghosts of your countrymen call from the ditches of Donbas where they lie unclaimed as carrion for Ukrainian crows? Redeem their blood, avenge the weeping of their mothers.

    Take the plunge, be the Russian patriot you say you are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Putin responds by saying all fertilizer must be paid for in Roubles in 3...2....1

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,364 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    "a terrible war imposed by the provisional IRA"

    Our West Brit Taoiseach



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭MyLove4Satan


    Science had nothing to do repairing the Ozone Layer. The phenomenon was discovered to be a cyclical and natural occurrence. The hole mended itself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Our resident Russian nationalist is shy about claiming his place on the wall of the great patriot fallen.

    His countrymen are dying by the bushel in the villages and by-roads of Ukraine for a real estate adventure, and here he is camped out on an internet forum thousands of miles away.

    I know what I'd do if I had his convictions and saw my copatriots nourishing the Ukrainian soil with their bodies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,819 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Must you sh*t up this thread with a tirade about Russians fighting in the Donbass?

    What has that got to do with an impending global recession? Nothing - you just have an axe to grind and for some reason are incapable of not posting. There are umpteen Russia-Ukraine threads for you to take your rants to, leave them out of here.


    In Germany unions are making big demands for wage increases to combat inflation, 8%+. Car manufacturers are struggling to hire staff also as wage demands are quickly increasing. We may see a wage-inflation spiral to some extent.

    Also interesting is that due to the ECBs slow response to inflation, the euro has significantly weakened versus GBP and USD, which will exacerbate the energy problems we have in Europe and also cause people to demand even more wage increases, as their purchasing power (from abroad) will look to have eroded.

    If we bought more goods domestically and not from international markets this wouldnt be such an issue, but seeing as Europe is resource poor this is not the case, and is going to bite hard.



  • Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If you still wear your pink sunglasses then take them off and look who won elections last week in France and start think who will win next elections in Ireland.

    This world has nothing to do with you or me.We can be patriots but decisions are making another people.



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  • Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    54 per cent of voters didn't vote on elections last week Sunday in France.

    Marine Le Pen nationalist party took 90 mandates ! What is 10 times more than on elections before ! Seismic event !

    All this show how french people are ,...off of the Ukrainian agenda and inflation in country.War propaganda against Russia from USA doesn't work in Europe were people has to pay over 2 euros per ltr of diesel.

    More changes on way I sure there will be big changes in governments and parlaments after this winter bills which people will have to pay.I will not surprised if Sinn Fein will take majority in Ireland same as they did on North

    This winter will be toughest if not worst in EU history ! Heavy strikes guaranteed !



    Ryanair strikes this summer




    Strikes in Belgium this week up to 100K on streets


    People will vote even for Plum and Tomatoes party after this winter ! Populists ratings will fly trough the roof !

    Just no need cry after saying that people do mistakes voting for populists ! Majority in power had everything to avoid populists comming to power ! So Mr Varadkar can only blame him self !

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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