Id imagine up until last fortnight or so,russia would have grasped the implentation of the 2014 minsk agreement,and used the semi automanus status being secured to sell a win at home
Whatever ones views or otherwise of putin,this war will end in negociations,all wars do,be very suprised if behind scenes talks arent ongoing.....so however difficult it is to stomach,someone will need talk to him in end,as its obvious theres no coup coming anytime soon in russia
Xi is a much tougher and brutal man than Putin. There really is no comparison.
He will be more strategic about it and leave nothing to chance though.
That has been the strategy for decades.
I think it would be more that we won't take the austerity, than can't. In other words, in the first instance, it's survivable but people care more about their own standard of living slipping too far. The second is basically starvation where there is little real choice.
In any case, it would make Russia's war strategy quite clear going forward. As long as you don't attack the USA or UK directly and make it an existential question for them, you can chip away at the edges of their sphere, safe in the knowledge that any protracted conflict will bring the West into disunity and general malaise and really only help Russia.
Is Emmanuel Macron an optimist or a fool?
I was going to say it worked for Nelson's Royal Navy and the tot of rum but I think they would have drawn the line at hip flasks! Plus back then things were more about muscle than precision.
I don’t think we can take the austerity created by war. And eventually that’ll show at the ballot box
I'd love to see the video of these guys coming across those drunks
Imagine living in the house behind these bums.
Get drunk and forget about everything and death will come to you soon cause you can't go home.
The sound of Severodonetsk
What 'talking to Putin' is there to be done? Macron's tried a number of times and has gotten nowhere.
What does Putin want? All of Ukraine, apparently, and possibly other countries if that is in any way feasible. He's shown his hand on this, and if anything has doubled down or even tripled down since February. Therefore, even if he were to agree to a ceasefire, his ambition regarding Ukraine would remain the same and a ceasefire would give Russia time to recuperate.
From a Ukrainian point of view, there's no point in a peace deal with Putin unless the peace deal has a cast iron guarantor, as they know he'll just try again whenever it suits, otherwise.
But, and this is extremely important, if the West drops its support of Ukraine, it will full confirmation of something Putin has long thought - that the West hasn't the stomach for a long fight. That it's flabby and weak and cannot take the austerity generated by war, whereas Russia is strong, and its people are stoic. That they'll be able to withstand the sanctions and take Ukraine in the long run.
Not the kind of thing you want to be confirming to your enemy and would be a profound undermining of any feeling of collective security in the West.
Listen to the podcast from the New York Times.
I believe that there’ll be an increased push for peace over coming weeks and even the Americans have started to express concern about the black hole of money and weapons and the one way flow of intelligence. And before we know it, those same leaders who’ve been backing zelensky will be back talking to putin.
this time next year I think we will be talking about the Donbas in the way that we talk about Crimea
Listen to the New York Times podcast
They will have to run out of gun powder some time soon surely.
The rest of the World has decided enough is enough regarding Russias annexation of land.
No, but when the rest of the world decides enough is enough, there’d be little choice
If Russia invaded your country would you be okay with your hometown and surrounding area being given to Russia to stop (probably for a short time) attacking?
land will be conceded to Russia in the end. There will not be the appetite to continue this in perpetuity
Macron is a French parody at this stage, saying only way to resolve this is for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.
Two things on this.
No, China would be more exposed on account of its global economic ties and their urgent need to keep growing. Taiwan can defend itself and it has a very big bear in its corner. Russia is largely a backwater service station, even if he wants it to be a Tsarist one!
You mean the exact same problems that Russia had when they invaded Ukraine?
Land may end up on the negotiating table and China do not have a deranged leader. They have their own problems, like the ongoing zero-COVID mess, where their economy will go and a declining population. They are also more connected to the world economy than Russia so sanctions would cause them far bigger problems.
And that's all before they even do battle with Taiwan and the US!
5 people wounded as result of Russian shelling in Mykolaiv, armchair view of damage
Putins other friends will be there too
If by 'crushed' you mean that the Russian forces currently occupying Ukraine need to be routed, I agree. Western forces need to act with a firmer hand in some way at least. I would start with getting a corridor in the Black Sea to allow Ukrainian shipping safe passage.
If by 'crushed' you mean Russian forces driven all the way back to Moscow and the country essentially conquered - probably never going to happen. The one situation I'm pretty confident Putin would launch the nukes in would be if Russia faced succumbing to an invasion.
You can't cede as much as an acre of land to the fcukers or the precedent is set for them to come back for more. In fact they really need to push them out of Crimea too as complete punishment for their invasion. Not only will they have gained nothing they will have lost an extremely important piece of real estate. Leaving them in Crimea means Ukraine is always at risk of attack from the Black Sea and Crimea itself. I'd shell it til there wasn't a single living thing on the penninsula rather than leave the Orcs there.
When all that is done, set up a ring of defenses all along the border and beef up their radar and anti-aircraft/missile defenses.
There's lots of second hand parts in Russian yet!
Only way to end it is maybe to give up the disputed zone to Russia, but not Mariupol , or any of Ukrainians coast. Give Russia the Dombas region, but rename it The Dumb Bastard region, only if with this deal Ukraine gets full EU and Nato membership.
A compromise, but they can't get an inch of Ukraine soil with out such a deal, or Putin will only regroup and go again in time. Needs to end here, and only EU and Nato membership ends it forever
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