If Putin is truly pursuing this war for the reasons you mention, it's even more senseless than I thought. From everything I heard coming out of Russia in the years prior to this one, Putin had a firm hold on power within the country and had signed into law an extension on the number of terms someone could serve as Russian president. Combine that with the alleged vote fixing he'd already (allegedly) engaged in, and he looked set to be president for life or at least until he was a very old man.
Unpopular wars have brought down governments before, and it's not as if Russia is immune to this, like their people are just so into suffering for patriotic pursuits. The Afghan War of 1979-1989 is credited as one of the things that led to the fall of the USSR.
From every angle it just comes off as one man's war, enabled by a circle of boot lickers, and pursued for illogical ideological reasons cooked up during Putin's extended retreat at his dacha during COVID times.
I suspect a lot of the EU push to wind up agriculture in Western Europe was pushed by Russia.
The only reason that makes sense for this war is the control of energy markets and pipelines. He never thought in a million years that Ukraine could resist like they have.
He's now in a quandary as anything less than taking the Donbas and a land corridor to crimea means a total failure of the wars intentions and makes him vulnerable and weak at home.
It couldn't have required a psychic for Russia to predict that waging a highly destructive war in Ukraine would cause large sanctions from the West and the genesis of an effort to divest from Russian energy by the EU which, irony of ironies, would cause the military effort expanded to control those pipes be all for naught.
If Russia thought the war would be over quickly, this would be the single greatest military intelligence failure of the 21st century. Russia had 8 whole years to notice a large scale build up of military capability within Ukraine, a country right next door.
Yes, but now one wanted to give him the bad news that his own military was a hollow shell. The plan was a complete take over of Ukraine in literally a few days. And that's what Putin believed.
Say you're one of Putin's generals - so, you're afraid of Putin and don't want to give him the bad news that might make him angry at you. OK, makes sense. But the problem is that if you don't give him the bad news, he's still going to find out, and find out in a costly humiliating way. So that would mean him being angry about military failure and also mad about his circle not telling him. That's 2X angry Putin. Worse than the first scenario that his circle possibly shied away from. Did no-one close to Putin do this simple calculation?
Kind of jaw dropping that a recent head of an EU State would say this about leaders of major powers of Europe.
ScholZ and Macron to be clear.
Understandable that he says it though.
Germany is walking a tight rope with the Russian gas situation. They saw how Russia cut gas off in Poland and dont want the same to happen to their country. Until Germany get a replacement for the Russian gas, I dont think they are going to change their stance that much.
France is sending weapons though ..i mean ..words are one thing ..actions are another ...are we sending weapons? Nope ...i think we should look at ourselves.
France can be accused of blindstatesmenship through words ...we can through actions ..ok so we are neutral ...what neutral to genocide?
I know we don't have much in terms of weapons but what we have ..we should send them.
or more
Why not? I mean the millions ( if not billions) being siphoned off has being going on for a long time, and each year, it would be harder and harder to own up to the truth. Plus, why kill the golden goose? And Crimea and Georgia non withstanding, they did not think that he would invade Ukraine, but if the worst came to the worst, it could be done anyway in a matter of days. Unfortunately for them, the Ukrainians had different ideas. Slava Ukraine.
What happens when Russia completely cuts Ukraine off from the sea, they look fairly close to doing it looking at the maps, can Ukraine function much longer after that?
Are they not effectively cut off from the sea for months now? While they hold the coast line, the area is mined and not much if any traffic getting through, hence no grain exports.
Read the news.The Russian fleet has retreated and Turkey is to begin mine clearing operations in the black sea.Land locked Ukraine is a fantasy now.
I am, as someone said earlier the news is conflicting. Looking at the current maps it doesn't look like fantasy. Russia is nearly in control of all the coast. Odessa looks like the last piece of the jigsaw.
Russia have not moved west of Kherson toward Odessa since the beginning of the war.Putin and co look at Odessa as the last piece of the jigsaw but it's a fantasy now as Odessa will soon be safe because of the grain corridor that will be in place in the next few weeks
Have they really retreated or have they just moved out of range of harpoon missiles?
What about Snake Island?
I can't see the Russians willingly allowing the grain to flow, that would defeat the "food blackmail agenda" that they pretend they don't have.
I think a Western show of force, on behalf of global food supply, will be necessary.
The food card is an incredible ace for Russia. It's the one way they can turn the world upside down in their favour.
I think it will be their undoing, it justifies action being taken to secure food supply. That action could involve naval protection, in which case the Russians would be in a lose - lose situation. They would have to either allow it or incur the wrath of Western nations if they attacked any UN or NATO vessel.
A disaster for Russia all round, naval protection of grain export would have to include a presence on the docks of Odessa.
Russia has fcuked up in ways that are currently beyond our imagination.
It certainly comes with risk but it is the one thing that can reshape the world in a way that benefits Russia and China and that can create a crisis that western Europe might not survive.
He has nothing extra to lose and everything to gain.
Besides a lot of the damage is already done.
Odesa is a bridge too far. The Russians are having difficulties holding on to Kherson.
Difficult to hold onto things when nobody wants you there.
Maybe yes, in the very short term. One has to win the war which consists of a lot of battles - including the sanctions
I’d say it’s more the humanitarian fall out that the evil bastard Putin perceives as an ace. Huge refugee crisis at Europes borders and huge crisis in Africa 100 times worse than Ethiopia in 1984 will turn western hearts ,minds and money away from Ukraine and towards Africa. Imagine a city like Lagos with 20+ million people running out of food.
Lukashenko had no bother playing with people lives leaving them to freeze on the borders of Poland before Christmas probably an idea cooked up by himself and Putin. Diverting attention from the military build up. A few starving millions in Africa would not cost them a thought to divert attention and resources from the war in Ukraine.
Apparently there are 1500 Belarusians fighting for Ukraine. Their logic is to defeat the Russians in Ukraine, then at home.
Retreating and moving out of range are the same thing in my view.This means Russia are worried about anti-ship weapons.If Russia wait until Odessa is demined and then attack they will be hit hard.HIMARS will be available in 2/3 weeks which makes an attack even harder.The sinking of Putins ships is something he can't hide at home and it's a big blow to Russian pride.
Putin can't control Odessa.Turkey have control over the black sea exit and have power over Putin in that sense.Turkey and others want the grain corridor open and putin has no ace here.The black sea fleet can be sunk if the food crisis worsens as USA will send missiles that will hit the fleet.
Dissent with Putin in Russia is still increasing. Putin's iron fist is fast slipping.
Russian Defense minister Shoigu claims control over Sviatohorsk in Donetsk region
Even if it's true, which I doubt, just the fact that the Minister of Defence announces capturing a town of 4,000 people as an achievement, shows how irrelevant the Russian army has become as a fighting farce.
I grew up in a time where we were constantly reminded that if it wasn't for the Americans stationed here, thousands of Russian tanks would drive all the way to the Atlantic coast.
Instead we now have the Russian defence minister proud that they now have control of Monasterevin, Kilcoole, some town that wouldn't even be in the 100 biggest towns in Ireland.
Oh, how far we've come from taking Kiev in 3 days.
What's more is that, if true, they've also been held on the other side of the nearby railway for weeks, unable to advance, and can now brag about managing to creep forward a tiny bit. Desperately trying to find some kind of "win" to report to the Boss, no matter how tiny it seems.
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