Germany is walking a tight rope with the Russian gas situation. They saw how Russia cut gas off in Poland and dont want the same to happen to their country. Until Germany get a replacement for the Russian gas, I dont think they are going to change their stance that much.
Kind of jaw dropping that a recent head of an EU State would say this about leaders of major powers of Europe.
ScholZ and Macron to be clear.
Understandable that he says it though.
Say you're one of Putin's generals - so, you're afraid of Putin and don't want to give him the bad news that might make him angry at you. OK, makes sense. But the problem is that if you don't give him the bad news, he's still going to find out, and find out in a costly humiliating way. So that would mean him being angry about military failure and also mad about his circle not telling him. That's 2X angry Putin. Worse than the first scenario that his circle possibly shied away from. Did no-one close to Putin do this simple calculation?
Yes, but now one wanted to give him the bad news that his own military was a hollow shell. The plan was a complete take over of Ukraine in literally a few days. And that's what Putin believed.
It couldn't have required a psychic for Russia to predict that waging a highly destructive war in Ukraine would cause large sanctions from the West and the genesis of an effort to divest from Russian energy by the EU which, irony of ironies, would cause the military effort expanded to control those pipes be all for naught.
If Russia thought the war would be over quickly, this would be the single greatest military intelligence failure of the 21st century. Russia had 8 whole years to notice a large scale build up of military capability within Ukraine, a country right next door.
The only reason that makes sense for this war is the control of energy markets and pipelines. He never thought in a million years that Ukraine could resist like they have.
He's now in a quandary as anything less than taking the Donbas and a land corridor to crimea means a total failure of the wars intentions and makes him vulnerable and weak at home.
I suspect a lot of the EU push to wind up agriculture in Western Europe was pushed by Russia.
If Putin is truly pursuing this war for the reasons you mention, it's even more senseless than I thought. From everything I heard coming out of Russia in the years prior to this one, Putin had a firm hold on power within the country and had signed into law an extension on the number of terms someone could serve as Russian president. Combine that with the alleged vote fixing he'd already (allegedly) engaged in, and he looked set to be president for life or at least until he was a very old man.
Unpopular wars have brought down governments before, and it's not as if Russia is immune to this, like their people are just so into suffering for patriotic pursuits. The Afghan War of 1979-1989 is credited as one of the things that led to the fall of the USSR.
From every angle it just comes off as one man's war, enabled by a circle of boot lickers, and pursued for illogical ideological reasons cooked up during Putin's extended retreat at his dacha during COVID times.
It’s far from amusing.
"The touring artists gave their last concert"
food war!
If true, good news.
I assume the point of the current battles in Severodonetsk is to inflict as high a cost on the Russian army as possible in taking the city. Same as in Mariupol, the Russians will just throw numbers at it until they are in control of a smouldering pile of rubble and dead soldiers, including many of their own.
This kind of urban warfare must be unbelievably tense and claustrophobic. Real whites of their eyes kind of stuff.
I don't think Macron is that stupid. "Macroning" might be a smoke screen, while sending weapons in the background....
has anyone asked macron - where would france be today if us/uk etc. didnt want to humiliate hitler - didnt want to humiliate the nazis by retaking france ... what planet is he on ..?!
At first Russian forces first pushed Ukraine forces back with a huge amount of reserve troops,LNR and DNR.Ukraine retreated to the industrial area and hid.Russia had all of the city and were very confident in their victory.Ukraine forces then hit them with Artillery and counter attacked(this may have been a plan/trap).Ukraine forces took 80% of the city.
Russia attacked again today with their reserves/cannon fodder and its 50/50 now with a no-mans land in the city centre which is under heavy Artillery fire.Ukraine forces tried to get closer in an attempt to stop the Artillery fire but Russia kept firing and hit their own men.
This battle is constantly changing.Other reports suggest that the private mercenaries,wagner and VDV have take 60% losses in Ukraine....losses=injured+dead
oil tankers are doing oil transfers ship to ship in the open Atlantic ocean now to desperately trying to sell russian crude oil to customers elsewhere.
This is a disaster waiting to happen
No time for tea break
I wonder if this will have a larger psychological impact on the Russians than other high-ranking casualties. "Kutuzov" is a name that carries weight in Russian military history. Marshal Mikhail Kutuzov was commander of the Russian armies at Austerlitz in 1805 and Borodino in 1812 and won victory for Russia in the Russo-Turkish War.
There is conflicting information coming out. I see some Ukrainian sources now saying that gains in severodonetsk did not happen. That info was put out as Zelensky was visiting the region. Hard to know what is true.
I completely agree.
So, what next? - any "agreement" with Russia is worthless long term but supposing there was a "current agreement" regarding the recognition of Ukrainian territory, then that agreement could pave the way for NATO membership, the only long term guarantee for Ukraine. It has to be done while Russia is still weak. Putin: "You can't do that, I'll invade, oh wait!" Russia down the line: "this isn't 2022, Ukraine is in NATO now"
Whatever way you look at it, Russia is swimming in its own faeces and the powers that "may soon" be in Russia know who's to blame.
Putin is toast and Russia may soon have to dance for the world.
It strikes me that Putin is pursuing the war for purely political reasons and for the optics with the domestic audience. Which is why many of the Russian military analysts and observers are becoming depressed and asking "what the hell are we even doing there?". Seems to be no chance of a military success for the remainder of 2022, which begs the question as to what sort of a "liberation" it is, where the place becomes a permanent war zone and uninhabitable.
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency: The situation in Ukraine's Zaporizhia constitutes a clear and present danger to the security and peace of the nuclear power plant there
Nuclear Power plants are not conducive to bombs and wars being fought
Agree completely. The same way the West helping Ukraine merely defend itself is labelled a "provocation" by Russia. The double standards are nauseating. But that's what nuclear weapons are worth
I guess if the Russians are failing to get quick success using a military doctrine that is their bread and butter, they don't really have a Plan C as Plan A failed utterly and Plan B, while it gave them limited success at the beginning is starting to drag out much longer than anticpated.
What is their way out, especially as Western Heavy Weapons are starting to arrive and make a difference on the battlefield? Time is on the Ukrainian side.
If they stop now, it's a humiliation, if they retreat, it's a humiliation, if they continue on as they have done so for the past 100 days, they may not have much of an army left, which will be a humiliation...
This is what a direct hit from artilllery or mortars looks like on russian troops
warning graphic
Yea I think you guys are probably right. But the problem for me is Russia and Putin are not acting rationally and there is always that worry they just go full on rogue with their nuclear weapons.
I would have thought that if he was mad enough to go down that route then it would become even more of a risk getting militarily invloved with Russia knowing that they are crazy enough to use nukes when ever it suits them. But I agree they would lose any support they may have with China and anyone else in the world if they go down that route.
The thing with the nuclear weapons is that Russian has now set a precedent, what now if a another rogue nuclear state invades its neighbours?!
No, there's no chance of him using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Once nukes are used, it's game over. The value of nukes is more in their threat than their use. Once you use them, you become an existential threat to the entire world and you must be shut down immediately. The world not only wouldn't sit by in that situation, but it couldn't sit by in that situation. There just wouldn't be the luxury.
Anyway, being pushed back in Ukraine wouldn't be a humiliation, regardless of what Putin thinks a humiliation should be defined as. If Russia lost some of its own territory, or was forced to agree to an unconditional surrender, that would be closer to being a humiliation. Being pushed back in Ukraine would only be just.
None of us really know what state of mind Putin really is in, so we can all only guess at this point. However, Putin likely knows that the nukes are the last ace he has up his sleeve. They are currently his most valuable asset because his possession of such weapons provides him with a degree of impunity. Once he starts using them, they lose this value.
Whilst the Kremlin likely doesn’t care about the optics of becoming the First Nation since WW2 to use nukes in anger, such a move will likely galvanise even some of the more hesitant countries into action, particularly France and Germany, who both have a lot to lose from this war going nuclear. As such, the Russian nuclear arsenal will lose its deterrent value and the west will likely engage Russia on a much broader front than we’re seeing currently. It is also likely to spur China into action as an irrational neighbour lobbing nukes around is likely not in Beijing’s interest. In short, he would massively weaken his own position by using them.
Given the above, and with the aforementioned caveat about Putins state of mind, I doubt that he is going to launch nukes unless the war really turns against him and the core territory of Russia is threatened. He’s not going to throw away his “get-out-of-jail” card, at least if he is somewhat rational.
Now, if he’s at the “Bunker in Berlin, April 1945” stage, then all bets are off naturally.
Mod - Can everyone drop the back and forth arguing about each other (that I'm pretty sure nobody except the participants involved read anyway) and get back to the topic at hand, thanks
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