A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Tonesjones · 06-06-2022 09:45AM

The FED have adjusted rates, the British treasury also as have the Canadians

Why is the ECB so slow to act?

Ozark707 · 06-06-2022 09:50AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164157#Comment_119164157

The ECB effectively finances Club Med. If IR's move too high good luck for those countries financing their deficits.

Tonesjones · 06-06-2022 10:01AM

https://m.independent.ie/business/european-central-bank-must-be-wary-of-raising-interest-rates-too-quickly-41723568.html

fresh article .

Hurry up and get on with it

Wanderer78 · 06-06-2022 10:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164157#Comment_119164157

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164173#Comment_119164173

once again, currently inflationary pressures have had little or nothing to do with our money supply, as its largely to do with supply and energy shocks, raising rates will only further compound the problem, as it will obviously increase the difficulties in borrowing and servicing pre-existing debts. in order to try reduce the severity of an oncoming recession, we must make borrowing and the servicing of debts easier, or certainly not harder, i.e. increasing rates will do the exact opposite of this, increasing the likelihood of a recession and the severity of it!

again, the only way out of this is by maintaining our current deficit spending, by maintaining our current suspension of euro wide deficit rules, if we dont do this now, we will more than likely experiencing a eu wide recession, and possible a severe one at that, and shur arent they a barrel of laughs!

Tonesjones · 06-06-2022 10:38AM

All this achieves is promoting and green lighting of our of control spending and living on credit.

That's a busted flush. We need to reign it in. The bubble cannot be inflated indefinitely.

06-06-2022 11:44AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164245#Comment_119164245

what circumstances need to happen in order to raise rates? They cant always remain low

Wanderer78 · 06-06-2022 11:54AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164383#Comment_119164383

exactly, by not allowing elevated deficit spending, its forcing us into credit based economies, this is ultimately what lead us into 08! (graph included)

Ireland Debt.jpg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164662#Comment_119164662

the only way to truly create a relatively safer environment of raising rates is to also enact wide scale debt forgiveness programs, in both the public and private domains, but more so in the private domain, i.e. reducing private debt, as this has now become our achilles heel. private debt has become simply too high for us to manage, this has been the case since the 08 crash, and we ve been trying to ignore it since, this will never work as is! but the reality is, we may never truly do this, so we re effectively stuck in long term low rates, as raising rates too soon, by too much, will simply keep causing wide scale downturns, significantly increasing the likelihood of financial system turmoil, due to the increase in the likelihood of defaults, non performing loans, etc etc etc, its just never gonna work!

Jonnyc135 · 06-06-2022 12:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164711#Comment_119164711

I think the "greats" in Davos are mad for debt forgiveness in exchange for our assets. You'll own nothing and be happy comes to mind, I think that scenario is a bad one.

I honestly don't know how they will paper over this recession that's incoming. Food shortage and 3rd world famine and defaults along with high inflation doesn't sound good.

I'm going to fill the polytunnel and section an acre of the land for veg, might freezer a couple of my lambs and maybe half a heifer.

Tonesjones · 06-06-2022 12:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164711#Comment_119164711

I apologise but I'm nor sure if I understand the system or reaction that you are suggesting.

To me it looks like you want to see endless spending backed by endless money printing? . No debt collection or penalty . Punish the prudent

What am i missing?

How is that sustainable

Wanderer78 · 06-06-2022 12:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164846#Comment_119164846

we ve made a complete an utter fcuk of things, we ve allowed wide scale money creation, but have completely misused it, we ve been primarily been using it to (re)inflate asset markets such as property, which in turn is just accelerating wealth inequality, and all that occurs from it...

we need to rapidly and radically change this, or we could all end in serious trouble....

debt forgiveness has always played a critical role in maintaining functioning monetary systems, but we have managed to fcuk this up also, by only truly allowing more wealthier entities do so, and enforcing debt repayments everywhere else, this is now starting to seriously fail, if not collapse! debts are now just accumulating, and most are now unsustainable, theyre simply unpayable, particularly in the private domain, i.e. private debt. if we continue as is, more and more incomes will be required to service these debts, leaving less money to maintain economic functionality, i.e. we simply wont be able to run our economies due to these excess debts....

06-06-2022 01:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164881#Comment_119164881

perhaps it was a bad idea to have a single currency and a central bank that covered so many countries with different needs

Fandymo · 06-06-2022 01:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153784#Comment_119153784

Ukraine is not our problem. Same as Yemen, Syria et al.

newmember2 · 06-06-2022 01:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119146361#Comment_119146361

They were however the newspapers of the time wanted them to be.

06-06-2022 02:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164080#Comment_119164080

I will tell you the future of the world in 2025

There will be no EU and there will be the 4 Kings of the world The USA,Russia ,China and India.When before we had only the One which was USA

US dollars mainly will be used in US colonies the rest of the world will start use rubble yuan and rupee.Believe me or not but Russia brought Europe on rubbles already.

But before that we will come trough the recession where everything will be broke up

You can jump and sing about Putinland and genocide on Ukraine using standard propaganda templates but this will not change Structural changes of the world were USA will lose power .

The smile on russian prime minister Mishustin face and his happy voice says a lot more than American and British propaganda talking about.

And Remember ! Nobody Ever won war against Russia!Look how fast they brought economy up after WW2!Yes it's wasn't easy but they did it ! And first satellite and first man in space were Russian ! The country which was burned to the ground in WW2!

Fandymo · 06-06-2022 02:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165260#Comment_119165260

There is nothing stopping the EU from closing the door. Apart from the feelz. Scuttling the lifeboat because there seems to be an inherent need to help everyone.

Danzy · 06-06-2022 02:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165297#Comment_119165297

There is no circumstances in the next 50 years where Russia is anything but an economic backwater.

That was inevitable before the war in Ukraine.

In all probability it will become a satellite State of China.

Russia has resources going for it, that is the only reason it will function at some level.

Most of Russia today is 30 years behind the rest of Europe, large parts of it 80 years, arguably more.

Does Russia have a future? 1 in 3 pregnancies there end in the child being killed. That is beyond sustainable and the existential threat for Russia is what does it do after spending decades killing its future.

Danzy · 06-06-2022 02:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165096#Comment_119165096

A currency too strong for the south and artificially weak for the North.

06-06-2022 03:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165424#Comment_119165424

Baiden still can't get cheap oil for USA and keep unpacking strategic reserves.Not Saudi Arabia not Venezuela not gonna send oil to USA.When Putin arrived to Saudi Arabia couple weeks ago the Saudis even put russian letters ДПС ( Road patrol service in Russia ) on them police cars trying make Putin feel like at home.At same time Saudi air forces planes was throwing smoke creating Russia flag above Putin cortège.Any Media on West didn't show that ! Start think about it.

When last 3 months Biden visit to Saudi Arabia still not agreed ! Because Biden can't come to Saudi Arabia and back to USA without cheaper oil ! Which Saudi Arabia not gonna give to USA ! Because does not keep them allies anymore.More,Saudi Arabia gonna start sell oil to China for yuan eliminating US dollars from trade !

I think you not follow what is going on in the world .

Danzy · 06-06-2022 04:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165670#Comment_119165670

The way the yanks will look at it is that there are single States, like California that have an economy 2.5 times that of Russia.

Russia is a small regional economy, not a global player, not a continental player in Europe or Asia.

06-06-2022 04:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165846#Comment_119165846

Russia is the largest and richest by resources country in the world.With 70 billions army budget what is 12 times smaller then USA Russia perfectly not just keep USA away but also create most best guns in the world.Yes you right Russia is small economy but this small economy use money more better than largest economies in the world.

For example Russia debt is one of the smallest in the world.

Leadership ? You will see Russia leadership now :) But unfortunately any media on West will afraid speak about it.

For example the main problem in Ireland at the moment is How hard to be a gay in Irish travelers community.

What you want get from local media ? There is no hope they will tell truth.

As I said many times before Look how local media telling lies about the Russia and you will see how they telling lies about local economy.

Danzy · 06-06-2022 04:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165919#Comment_119165919

Yet Russia is a poor country, if it had even a reasonably component Govt in the last 2 centuries, it would have been a global powerhouse.

Those resources will within 50 years he considered Chinese owned.

I think it is sad that Russia is reduced to what it is.

The West has certainly gone off on a bizarre tangent the last few decades.

06-06-2022 05:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165933#Comment_119165933

Keep dreaming.You still not understand what happened on Ukraine and why.Russia is strong boy who think he has right do what he thinks the best and at the moment Dady Sam loosing war.All what you are saying is just templates which I heard about Russia last 70 years.Nothng new.

3 new Kings came to table were USA was the King before and they want have place.Unfortunately King USA doesn't have much support to fight against new Kings because did plenty st in world.Start think from that side.

Henry Kissinger said clearly what Ukraine and USA must do to survive.

06-06-2022 05:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165919#Comment_119165919

Russia burnt investors making the place completely uninvestable

06-06-2022 05:16PM

I'm not gonna continue disputing with people which use old propaganda templates and has serious shortage of critical thinking.

Time will show who is right shortly.

Danzy · 06-06-2022 05:24PM

Russia has an economy about the same size as Spain, spread out over 5 times the population.

Are we to pretend Spain is a global power as well.

Russia is globally important but it's days of being a global power are long over and receding fast.

It can't even take Donbass FFS.

06-06-2022 05:58PM

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-in-talks-to-increase-russian-oil-imports-from-rosneft/articleshow/92038244.cms

The more oil from Russia to India the more diesel from India to Europe .

Pussyhands · 06-06-2022 10:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119166046#Comment_119166046

What's the GDP of Russia?

Pussyhands · 06-06-2022 10:32PM

Listen to these 8 seconds, from the 2007 Futureshock: Irelands Property Crash programme.

This is why the ECB need to raise rates big and raise rates now!

https://youtu.be/YYAORGZ_BMw?t=66

threeball · 06-06-2022 11:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119166162#Comment_119166162

And how do you plan on getting the oil there with no insurance on the tankers. I'm sure the Pakistanis and Afghans won't mind you running a pipeline across their countries. Maybe your Chinese mates will let you supply the Indians through them. They're great buddies.

07-06-2022 06:21AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119167428#Comment_119167428

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/greek-shipping-magnates-profit-by-moving-russian-oil-wkzsrcrqp

No insurance for russian but not for greeks which has biggest tankers fleet in the world.

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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