Been saying the same since week 1, he can stop any time he likes and say the same thing whenever it happens to be.
Wagners getting blasted?
I accept that - and if anything the Russians were simply firing on civilians/anybody. I don't see the case against Russia where embedded journalists get injured. The Russians are heinous enough without highlighting where they possibly aren't doing anything wrong.
More signalling of imminent crumbling of Ukraine military situation in East Ukraine.
General Mark Millie in US talking about negotiated settlement now too. US not sending long range artillery missiles.
Meanwhile more sanctions push up Russian energy revenue due to prices rising. Western leaders really playing a blinder. Maybe there is a magic number of dead or destabilization in economies before pressure to ceasefire really picks up?
For Clarity. More sanctions do not assist Russia.
AND
The US hasn't changed their stance on long range offensive weapons including jets throughout this entire thing.
I do love though how people float into the thread heralding ground breaking changes in the situation though....
Like they've stumbled across new news.
Richard Wagner - Götterdämmerung - Siegfried's Funeral March
Good riddance!
Russia raising the age limit of enlistment isn't a great sign as regards how Russia is doing vs. what was supposed to be a quick victory. An article I saw claimed it was a sign that Russia's army was on the brink of collapse. I'd like that to be true, but until it actually happens, I'll have to file it under 'Russia can only finance war up until the second week of March.'
Just a few facts in there, just how you want to see things is your own prerogative.
Floating the idea that peace is a good idea is pretty uncontroversial and even Zelenskiy is on board. What that looks like is unknown and there are differing opinions but it is still important to regularly mention it. I don't know what rearguard action you mean here. This latest tranche of sanctions was exclusively held up by Orban.
"Yeah if you could just remove those mines that are preventing us from attacking your port that'd be great"
The sanctions are hurting and will continue to hurt Russia (more as time goes on, medium term). Prices for oil/gas have increased for obvious reasons resulting in temporarily increased revenue for the Russians, but keep in mind their key clients (Europe) are constantly reducing quantity.
Ukraine asked for MLRS, the US offered, but there are two ranges, the shorter range ones are 40ish km, which Ukraine has said they will accept. The longer ones, at 500km range, the US has ruled out and Zelensky has recently said he's okay with that too
Actually in WW2 Germany was so confident of a quick victory against the Soviet Union that they scaled down war production and they did not go into total war footing until some point in 1943 I think.
By that time it was already far too late. Even putting aside their fuel issues because of relentless bombing, they just could not hope to keep pace with losses. By the time their production levels were hitting closer to the required levels the chances of winning the war or even fighting to a successful stalemate were effectively nil.
Because they did not plan for the eventuality of a protracted war they had not only a massive shortage of replacement weapons, but they had to chose between sending replacement armor or winter gear on extremely poor supply lines. So the myth that the Germans had no winter gear isn't true - they just had no way to get everything they needed to frontline units because they never planned to need it.
Things might have been very different in they were in a total war economy in 1940 and 1941 that planned for a protracted war, and if their general war planning called for a quick victory but had provision for the potential of a longer conflict.
Russia also did not at all prepare for Plan B, firstly for the event that their initial attack would outright fail, secondly for a protracted war, and thirdly, for the eventuality of massive, collective response from the West.
So they actually are far, far more comparable then you might think.
It's just edgelord tripe.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine received self-propelled artillery units M109. This was recently announced by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov on his Facebook page.
The main weapon of this self-propelled unit is a 155-mm howitzer M284 with a barrel length of 39 calibers, mounted in the turret on the gun carriage M182A1. The firing range when using a conventional shot is 24,000 m, when firing active-jet projectiles firing range increases to 30,000 m.
A fundamentally new fire control mechanism was also created, resembling an automatic anti-aircraft gun guidance system - it independently provides the howitzer with the required angle of elevation and horizontal guidance, focusing on the information processed by the sensors. The result is a modern automated weapon system that can respond quickly to targets, hit fairly maneuverable objects and is much better protected.https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/05/31/paladin-park-artyleriyi-popovnyvsya-shhe-odnym-inozemnym-zrazkom-yaki-osoblyvosti-cziyeyi-sau/
Some game of brinkmanship the Russians are playing, here. The Ukrainians can get some grain out of Ukraine by other means, but it's only fraction of what can be moved via its usual route. Will Western powers be forced to act? Would NATO countries move ships into the Black Sea to provide some kind of safe corridor for Ukrainian vessels to get grain out of Odessa? That's even presuming the mines could be navigated. It seems that there will have to be movement in one direction or another with how Russia is being handled in order to let that grain flow. The other option is enduring the potential crisis this grain shortage will create.
Russia - the gift that keeps on giving
Dmitry signs contract with Russian army
I can see a grand coalition of countries backed by AU countries (they also need the grain) to force a corridor to allow the export of grain. Russia would not fire on this convoy.
The moment she says he'll be driving T-62's and he realises he's just signed his own death warrant
Students accuse UK lecturer of spreading disinfo
Before I even read the article I immediately guessed the staples "Both sides", "We can't really know what happened", "The West..".
That would all be extremely short-term thinking for the nations mentioned. Firstly, any sudden rise in the cost of staple foods is going to worsen tension over what is already being called a cost of living crisis. Relative scarcity of grain and the cost of it going up worldwide isn't going to make things go in the right direction, there.
The counter point to this argument is that Europe is not so dependent on Ukrainian grain as other regions, so won't be so badly affected. A point I'll take, but what happens with people in the regions who are badly affected? What do they do? Where do they go? The big political football in Europe of the last decade has been inward migration toward Europe. Cataclysms in the developing world will do nothing to slow this down. Very much the opposite, in fact. Drought and food shortages - two things that Europe thinks its relatively safe from - will only spur on more people to try and get to Europe, and its been the uncertainty/fear of what those waves of people bring that has caused some political fissures in recent years. It's not a trend that European leaders should be unwittingly bolstering through an unwillingness to act now. The inability or unwillingness to see more than a month ahead could be pretty disastrous for the likes of Macron and Scholz. They think they have a lid on right wing populism? They don't know what's coming if they don't quell the knock on effects from the current crisis in Ukraine.
Scholz The Kyiv Independent on Twitter: "⚡️German defense committee chief urges Scholz to unblock supplies of armored vehicles to Ukraine. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann has called on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s office to deliver 50 Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine as soon as possible." / Twitter
Interesting thread on MLRS Mark Hertling on Twitter: "Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine is not getting as much attention right now because of competing stories in the US. But I will attempt to clarify the "MLRS issue" that seems to be the primary story on the war right now. An "artillery" thread to help clarify. 1/13 🧵" / Twitter
This is definitely getting discussed behind closed doors. Possibly even why Biden is not giving the UAF the long range missile and only medium range. All negotiations. If they fail, then I can see warships seizing Ukrainian ports on behalf on an international humanitarian mission, possibly UN based. Not a chance Russia would target a NATO member ship escorting food cargo. Be game over for them. End of the day the world needs that grain, it has to get out.
Scholz has really turned out to be a complete disappointment.
How would these ships seize Ukrainian ports when the waters around them are heavily mined?
Head of regional administration says Sieverodonetsk is largely under Russian control
That's probably been worked on. I'd say an agreement will be reached between Ukraine, Russia and other groups to get these ships out in some shape or form. I can even see Egypt playing a role here.
Not war, that would be just ridiculous. Ukraine would probably not object to an international buffer force on the south, Russian ship missiles may be forced to stand down risk hitting a wrong target. Anyhow, I'm sure backroom deals are probably already in the works to get this grain out. Demining, safe passage, possibly even Russian seized ships would also be allowed (embargo clause for emergency relief or something)
There are two parts to the city.The population area and the industrial area,then the river and across it is Lysychansk.It seems Russian forces have take most of the population area and Ukraine forces have retreated to the industrial area.The industrial area can be protected from the higher ground of Lysychansk on the other side of the river so there may be a long battle ahead.
At first they attacked Severodonetsk from the woods,now they have moved into the city which is more dangerous than woods and eventually they will have move into the open industrial area.
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