A counterattack could be just what the Russians are expecting at some stage. They may be looking to take as much of the Donbas as possible as the Summer rolls on before switching to a defensive dug-in strategy to weather whatever Ukraine can throw back in return. There's also the continuing worry about what's happening to ordinary Ukrainians stuck behind Russian lines, essentially at the mercy of their new (hopefully temporary) overlords.
That's a great read. Interesting to hear his thoughts on Putin's motivation (mainly about self enrichment and boosting his ego and reputation) and Russia's future (not good in his opinion, largely an isolated backwater living in the past).
Any treaty would have to come with full access to the NATO defense pact for Ukraine. Only then will the rest of Ukraine be safe.
If we could connect a dynamo to the leaders and rebels of the 1956 Hungarian uprising we could power Europe based on the spinning going on in graves over Orban's pro Russia's stance.
He makes the valid point that Putin has already seized Crimea and parts of the Donbass and now three more regions. This rather invalidates the claims by some in the West that he just needs to be given more and more Ukrainian territory in order to get him to back off. Why would he stop with just eastern Ukraine? He clearly views the entire country (including Kyiv) as being 'Russian'.
I don't know if Putin regards the entire of Ukraine as Russian, but he certainly does appear to want to make it Russia's, and I'm starting to think that Putin would be prepared to level every Ukrainian city (possibly excepting Kyiv), slaughter every Ukrainian and turn the whole country into one giant wheat field.
Yes. I found this part very interesting - most people just go with the flow-
Actually, the most important thing for Putin is not the support, it's apathy -- the capacity to do nothing -- from the major part of the population…. So I would say that this 80 or 70 percent who support Putin, it is quite enough for them to say, "We have nothing against [you]," and so, therefore, this support will never turn into real, active support if something goes wrong. So if, for example, there is a coup, a civil war…I doubt anyone will stand behind Mr. Putin. So 80 percent of people saying that they support him, it doesn't mean they will take up arms and volunteer to fight in the Donbas.
That's very evident on all those Moscow vox pops we see on YouTube with people saying "I am neutral / apolitical" and "I have no opinion on the special operation". It seems Putin is relying on this type of apathy and views it as 'support'.
Why would Russia have any interest in peace talks?
Could they come up with even one good reason to be serious about peace talks.
There isn't one. It would be of no utility to their aims.
Ukrainian Kamikaze
Doesnt sound like Zelensky is giving up yet ,or planning on giving anything to Russia
He has a tough call to make around the potential encirclement of Severodonetsk
I bet they'll break through the encirclement and lambaste the Russians. They saw this coming and are ready for it. Temporary encirclement is not a defeat.
This thread gives substance to the theory that wars are deliberately provoked Arnaud Bertrand on Twitter: "Most fascinating thing about the Ukraine war is the sheer number of top strategic thinkers who warned for years that it was coming if we continued down the same path. No-one listened to them and here we are. Small compilation 🧵 of these warnings, from Kissinger to Mearsheimer." / Twitter
He does indeed,but even reatreating and losing land means fighting another day,just like around Kiyv.
Once Ukraine gets their reserves mobilised and specialists trained on NATO equipment,maybe there is a hope.
Russians was lucky to get their reserves in before Ukraine and are closer to supplylines,but that could change,because Russians are allready suffering from losses of both manpower and equipment.
Interesting commentary but what I cannot make out from it is a coherent moral basis for the underlying proposition. When you strip away the "strategy" and "sphere of influence" and "humiliation" and "provocation" you're left with "Don't poke the Bear". That's not to say that the outcome was mot foreseeable. But it was foreseeable because Russia was a likely candidate to mount an illegal invasion of a country that evinced no intention of causing any actual harm to it. Look, without going outside Russia's own borders, it is a bad actor. There is no civil discourse. It's a kleptocracy. The government kills its opponents. The World must tolerate that up to a very high threshold because of the need for international respect for sovereignty (the moral argument) and in russias case because it has nuclear weapons (the practical argument).
But Ukraine was given its independence in 1991. Has Putin ever articulated a coherent argument based on any moral principle (regardless of whether one agrees with it) for interfering with the governance of that country and then invading it? Did he ever say: "Please listen to me, if Ukraine join NATO, my country will be rendered unsafe because [insert reason]."? No he didn't. Did he say "We will pull out of Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk if Ukraine agree not to join NATO "? No he didn't. Its all this "Ukrainians (that we blow to bits) are really Russians" and Ukrainians (that are jews) are Nazis".
So yes, these experts may be realists about the animal we are dealing with in Russia, but ultimately the strength of the argument lies in the proposition that the weak suffer because they must.
You'll be telling women what to wear next.
The thing is, the warlocks in the Kremlin are DANGEROUS people and you don't mess with them unless you want trouble. The question is, did they want trouble? I don't know, this is deep state stuff but none of it can, in the slightest way, excuse the evils of the Kremlin or the evils of this war.
putin has F’d with a lot of peoples money….
Looks like Scholz,Germany and Poland is the next victims of Russias nuclear threat propaganda circus
They keep forgetting UK,France have nuclear subs and Germany and other NATO members have nuclear bombs as well.
Hilllarious,sounds like Russia is on their knees soon
The Pentagon: China continues military cooperation with Russia despite the brutal war in Ukraine
Check out this response from a retired 4 star US general. He's quite right, this stuff is absolutely unhinged in the modern era. It's as if they are broadcasting from a lunatic asylum. Imagine openly threatening neighbouring countries with nuclear weapons on a current affairs show....grossly irresponsible.
...
Should this pass it's a large advantage.
For the love of God and all that is holy please learn where the return key is so we don't have to keep loading a new page to see the twitter post, but I suspect you don't actually read the thread
I agree they're dangerous alright. But i dont buy into the deliberate policy of provoking a war. What is the strategic benefit to the US/NATO of getting into a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine? Weakening Russia? What's the benefit of that? They've got nukes so they're more dangerous when weak. More to the point perhaps, why would Russia rise to the provocation? It may sound facile but the idea that Putin is in this to prevent contagion of a functional democracy that would see him overthrown stands up without the need for speculation about dark forces and unknowns, and it explains the NATO/US support of ukraine as good intelligence and preparation. Shoring up ukraine post 2014 is a no brainer in that paradigm.
It would be far cheaper and more beneficial to support them properly and end this war rather than the piecemeal approach (or in the case of the Germans and French the financial bankrolling of Russia).
If countries really want to have a proper crash then keep the status quo going.
Too many people on the planet, ultimately something drastic will be done to address it, as in eliminating 1/2 of them, that is the scary truth. This is what the powerful nations will do eventually, they'll eliminate the weak, so that the strong survive. We have hunger issues now, what happens in 20 year when the 8b people become 13b people?
Half of ‘them’?
Easy on there Thanos
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