Ukraine's head of military intelligence says the war with Russia is going so well, that it will reach a turning point by mid-August and be over by the end of the year.
It is the most precise and optimistic prediction by a senior Ukrainian official so far.
Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' | World News | Sky News
So, not just posters. But anyway.
Myself, I would liked to have believed him at the time. But it's like a boxer predicting the round of the knockout. Great to see the confidence but needs to be taken with a dollop of salt. That said I'd still be more inclined to take what comes from the Ukrainian side more seriously than the nonsense out of Russia. An example is the taking of territory. If Russia touches a village they quickly declare it conquered (take Mariupol as a glaring example). The Ukrainians may not announce a successful liberation until days after the fact.
This interview was before Russia started to get their sh1t together too. I'd love to hear his take now. They've learned from the first couple of phases of the invasion. Taking Popansa was literally by grinding it to dust and throwing man after man into the fire until the bodies piled high enough that they could walk over it. Not a lot new or innovative there.
But in areas around Lyman and Severedonestk they seem to have managed a few tactical manoeuvres with more than 2 BTGs, a feat that they couldn't managed in the earlier stages of the invasion. They may be benefiting more from air support in the East too than is being reported. I don't know. So I look to the South to see evidence of anything other than a stalemate emerging there and so far it's pointing to a long protracted conflict unfortunately. I'm hoping that we see a massive counteroffensive soon from Ukraine, particularly in the South. Kharkiv would have given them them a morale boost but they need more small (or large gains) to maintain that morale.
Ukraine wouldnt be able to pull off an attack of that scale, would need alot of training, coordination with troops, and lots of artillery. Ukraine are still lacking in equipment, and having more troops isnt necessarily better if you dont have the equipment.
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Also to add to your list, France have sent 12 Caesar truck-mounted Holitzers and gifting several tens of thousands of shells and Milan anti-tank missiles.
Denmark are sending Harpoon Anti-ship missiles.
Canada announced yesterday they are sending 20000 artillery shells
Why do refer to it then?I wouldnt trust anything coming out of TASS,regardless
Under the circumstances of the new media regulation enforced by the Russian government, which is heavily restricting media freedom", the European Alliance of News Agencies (EANA) unanimously decided to suspend TASS as "not being able to provide unbiased news", pending an exclusion decision.
Iran has been sanctioned for decades and it has a ton of oil. Likewise Venezuela.
It's not a question of cheap oil/gas, it's down to the fact that Putin can hold countries hostage. The Germans mistakenly thought that enough trade with Russia would render war with Europe unfeasible for Moscow, they got it wrong. Now the Germans, and many others, can never revert to being energy reliant on Putin's Russia.
Not Ukraine, I'm talking about a hardcore group of posters on this thread. Ukraine has long been saying it's going to be a slog. These are dark days but hopefully not setting the tone for the entire summer. A lot clearly depends on outside forces, the people supplying weapons to Ukraine are inevitably going to shape conditions for peace and there is a palpable shift in mood towards some kind of messy compromise, much like here a century ago.
Yes but how
Because so far it hasn't been going great for them - as they are still slowly losing territory, even with all the weapons shipments to date. Unless the Russian army totally exhausts itself and collapses its hard to see how the Ukrainians can win back Kherson Luhansk or Donetsk
Agree completely, both sides are losing a lot of everything. At the beginning, things looked really bad for Ukraine. In April things looked better. Now it looks bad again. We'll see what happens. In the meantime, relentless death and suffering
NATO as a group have stated they won't be supplying arms to Ukraine. I don't think NATO have supplied any arms yet. However NATO members are free to and have already being supplying arms to Ukraine.
Poland a NATO member supplied Ukraine with tanks, they were Polish, not NATO tanks.
The US supplied US artillery, it wasn't NATO artillery etc...
The tweet seems to take the NATO statement outta context or something or he doesn't know the west is not NATO.
True, but infrastructure tends to last, and whilst I now have a visceral hatred for my government back in Berlin, primarily focused on Olaf Scholz, Germany is putting in the infrastructure to avoid Russian gas in the future:
Germany starts building its own LNG terminal | Business | Economy and finance news from a German perspective | DW | 06.05.2022
Germany aims for fourth FSRU in race to cut off Russian gas | Reuters
And whilst the Wilhelmshaven Terminal has started construction as indicated in the first link, further terminals at Brunsbüttel (next to the entrace to the Kiel Canal) and further up the Elbe near Stade (Where I grew up) are slated to start construction shortly:
LNG-Projekte im Norden: Hier soll Flüssiggas in Deutschland anlanden - n-tv.de (German language)
Is it taking too long? Absolutely, but I feel reminded of the push to phase out nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Something has snapped in Germany's political landscape and even if the pro-Russian elements regain their lost traction, the damage has been done. There won't be a return to the status quo ante, especially given the nationalization of foreign businesses by Russia at the beginning of the conflict.
A very interesting analysis of the situation in Russia This Is Not Just 'Putin's War' And Russians Should '100 Percent' Feel Guilty: A Veteran Russian Analyst Pulls No Punches (rferl.org)
Cuba and North Korea don't have anything we want.
How do you propose Ukraine takes back that territory is the question.
Without another standing army from EU or NATO its hard to see how they will reclaim that territory back
Not really. Cuba is still sanctioned. North Korea still sanctioned.
Putin's Russia has burnt so many bridges with the world in three months I've lost count. Much of it irreversible damage.
Not when the 'regime' hasn't even admitted doing anything wrong. They are sticking to the line that Ukraine are "Nazis" and that NATO expansionism caused the war. Putin could possibly rehabilitate himself if he admitted that the war was a terrible mistake but hell would freeze over sooner.
Also, talk that the war will soon be forgotten is completely ignoring that Putin still has (unstated) aims of invading Moldova and Poland. Impossible for relations to be normalised with a maniac on Europe's borders.
...
What does it take to wake up the west? https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1529774274717880320?s=20&t=0TaZM48_arVtvGeBEck5Dg
Things do be forgotten fast.
Can you point out where I said TASS have any credibility?
I repeatedly said they do not, however that does not mean that everything TASS puts out is a cover for some nefarious plan. If TASS reported the sky was blue several posters here would believe its a coverup of the Russians turning the sky red.
Impossible for there to be a 'reset'. The regime is now so hated that they simply can't go back to pre-February 24th. You can't start a major war in Europe and there not be huge consequences. Putin will never set foot in western Europe again.
I wish I could agree. Russia knows that Europe does not have the stomach to stick to the long game, it's been shown multiple times. The US will keep its Sanctions up, Europe will cave in short order.
I take it Ukraine will soon be partitioned and the two regions to the east will soon be independent and part of Russia.
Hungary can veto at EU level all they want, obstruct and assist Russia (as they are doing with oil currently) but they can't veto the other member's energy policies, or dictate who they will purchase fossil fuels from, or who they will trade with generally. They (maybe Hungary is the only exception in the EU) will be working hard to get this monkey off their back now. They just can't trust Russia any more under current leadership.
Not just energy, but pretty much everything. They have burned their bridges with the West. The war ending will change nothing and they will remain a pariah state.
Russia is long past being self sufficient from what I've read, you'd have to go back to the USSR and old creaking factories designed to maximise employment. They could rebuild an internal economy and one also based on trade with China and India. But that's not by any means certain as those states will not be wanting to burn too many bridges with the 'West'.
Putin & Russia were f***ed the moment they started this war. No win for them in this at all.
Sanctions won't be dropped while Russia represents a clear and present danger to its neighbours. You need to listen to President Biden and Ursula VDL.
The real trick of course is to incentivise them to become part of the West. Likely to take decades however.
Many also forget its not only about oil and gas,its about energy,and that comes in many forms
Countries in EU will still be dependent on Russian gas like Hungary would veto it.
A good portion of the sanctions will be dropped as part of a peace agreement when the war ends.
That's a pretty huge, and incorrect, assumption that EU energy policy resets back to 'January 2022' as soon as the war ends. It doesn't. Russia, barring some incredibly unlikely transition to a peaceful and democratic regime, is on an inexorable path to being locked out of Western export markets.
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