How would it be possible to land a force on an island capabale of securing it, in todays day and age....unless it had no defence forces if itself?
The victory will be for Ukraine
There are many Chinese, and I'm sure many, many Chinese have studied that same question quite carefully. One thing that comes to mind is to use civilian shipping to land an advance force. Another is attrition of forces, a version of which China is already doing slowly wearing out Taiwan's air force. Any problem can be solved, but what ever they might chose to do the one thing they have to do is cut off resupply by sea and air and keep the Americans away. Enough submarines and anti ship missiles will do the latter.
There isn't, but Taiwan's airforce is no match for the PLAAF. The Chinese are forcing Taiwan to intercept many flights which is straining their aircraft, crews, and ground crews. In peace time. If they play their cards right and cut the supply routes, they will gain air superiority over the island. That will make it harder to stop landings, particularly if the Chinese can covertly land forces or more likely already have sympathisers on the island.
As we have seen in Ukraine air superiority is getting harder and harder to enforce. Ground to air missiles make it near impossible to achieve air superiority. Drone are cheap and cheerful to manufacture both for Tiawan and China.
China has plenty of ships to put troops into. The problem is getting them accross the he strait's to Tiawan.
While technically the US navy is smaller than the Chinese navy it's technology is way superior. By itself it has about double the amount of nuclear submarines compared to Chins. Australia is going buying some of these from the US. They out number them with conventional submarines as well.China has very few Aircraft carriers. Add in Australian, Japanese and South Korean miltary capibility and China would never gets its troops accross to Tiawan with out serious losses.
As that great philosopher Mike Tyson said, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. We don't know what China's plan is, and as Reggie pointed out the economic cost would be crippling. However, I do still believe they can seize Taiwan, should they wish to. The case of the USA getting into a shooting war with China is, I think, much over stated. I had a particularly lively discussion with an Englishman lately who's belief was aircraft carriers are unsinkable. Taiwan is vulnerable, it can hurt the PLAN and the PLAAF but ultimately it would fall imv. As for losses, it's China, they don't have russia's demographic problem.
You're right , china's demographic is arguably worse , a rapidly aging population - think about the one child policy affects that -
, because of social preferences there are far more men than women ,
because of the nature of employment patterns and inheritance practices many more of the young women work In big cities and aren't too keen on moving back to the country to look after potential in-laws ,
And after decades of one child policy , one child is still seen as socially the norm ....
China possibly only has a decade or 2 before it implodes ...
China has other problems. It's population is still growing. The Chinese Communist Party may be only one mistake away from a revolution. China now faces the problem all developing countries face. It has an educated young population at present. Because of the one child policy it has a poor male/female demographic.
How this plays out over the next ten years will be interesting. I cannot see the US, Australia, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea all letting China just waltz into Tiawan.
Sounds like the predictions about the EU imploding, any day now. They have far more people available for the military than does russia.
I'm sure they would "support" Taiwan, but do you see the US public sending their military into harms way, I do not, particularly if the current political mess continues. Anyway, minus the US, other democratic nations military doesn't amount to a hill of beans.
That is where you are incorrect.
The US is the strongest military power, Russia was considered second followed by China. However after them India, Japan, France and South Korea are all next.
The question is what side India would take if any. It's not really enamoured with the US and is quite close to Russia from a military perspective. However it's has huge issues with China and word not lime to see it grow more powerful. Tiawan make it inside the top twenty as dose Indochina.
https://www.businessinsider.in/undefined/slidelist/.cms
I am very much of the opinion that South Korea and Japan would both back Tiawan and the US. India would be reluctant to see China allowed to continue to expand in Asia.
Australia is starting to spend serious money on its military, mainly it's Navy and mainly Nuclear submarines.
I am afraid you have got this one wrong herdquitter
To be fair it seems both yourself and HQ are posting a lot of personal opinion as fact.
Certainly with those predictions of who would support who
To be incorrect would require China to invade, until then the jury will remain in hotel digs.
We've seen how US public opinion views US boots on the ground in Ukraine, they don't want it. 20 years of fubar "wars" in Afghanistan and Iraq, they're tired of sending sons and daughters to die for other nations wars. The all important question, seeing as the Republican party are well and truly "off the reservation" in terms of sanity, who may be president at that time.
Mistakes that are being made are the assumptions that the US will jump into war directly, AND that their military is ready for that particular war. As they say, you're only as good as your last war. It's why I doubt the aircraft carrier, they've never been tested in modern warfare on anything like an equal footing. Anything afloat can be sunk. Throw enough missiles at it and some will get through the screen. And yes, that also applies to Chinese landing forces. But the trick for China is to keep the US Navy at arms length and grind down Taiwan forces. I believe they can do the former, the latter is less easy but not impossible.
The only time SK, Japan et al become a problem for China is if the US intervenes directly itself. I don't see it happening if push comes to shove despite the talk.
India doesn't know what it wants itself. It keeps these close defense ties with russia who are in bed with India's second arch enemy China. russia, if they continue with a similar system, will prioritise China over India. I'd put a strong will do sweet f all next to India.
The US always considrs the Pacific theatre more imprtant than Europe. It respects the spending of those Asian countries on military hardware.
I am not so sure India would do SFA
its not exactly close bed fellowswith China
It's not a requirement to spill US blood to buy US arms though, again as we see in Ukraine. Us weapons for someone else's war, not much of a problem. Sending Kenny from Oklahoma halfway around the world into harms way, a much greater problem. Trump was wrong about many things, but he had some valid points about defense involvement, in that regard pandora's box has been opened for the US public.
Other nations getting involved will depend on US direct involvement. Look at the sh1t over MIGs to Ukraine, among other things. Third nations were afraid to get indirectly involved pas t a point. Skirmishes in the Himalayas isn't exactly news, nor has India always fared best in armed contests with China.
This war is putrids own mess, let him wallow in it.
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1526705581368778753?s=20&t=B1Tytj8UQ0NjGYP6gg2cfA
seeing as how we wre talking about India
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-to-offer-india-500-million-in-military-aid-to-reduce-dependence-on-russia-101652853517651.html
3 Ukranian cars overtook me on the Enniscorthy western bypass this morning. Heading for Kilkenny I suppose?
Up the Yella bellies..
Hon the Wexford.
Qq
I've read that an awful lot of casualties in the war have been inflicted by artillery, without soldiers even seeing one another. I've posted other similar threads before on logistics and artillery. Here's another on how an army marches on it's pallets (and forklifts).
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1528024733983424512?s=20&t=n6egbLeCU6p8ZFnsA_17BA
As I was saying...
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1528726834145263616?s=20&t=pQY16CzxMMbNBMuVZ61y6Q
Unbelievable amount of flight from Turkish resorts to Moscow...all head up over Bulgaria, Poland across to Moscow.
Though EU airspace was closed to russian flights? Are there still that many Russians heading off on holidays?
EU airspace is closed, they must be taking an alternative route
Xx
I haven't looked into it but I believe EU airspace is closed to russian carriers, not necessarily flights to russia, though with the russian seizing of aircraft on lease not many companies are going to want to fly there now. AFAIK Turkey hasn't imposed sanctions, or at least the level of sanctions that the EU has. Erdogan wants to keep ties with moscow. There will be an area over and around the warzone that it is likely insurance companies won't insure aircraft, which may explain the route. I don't know how far East from Turkey one would have to fly to avoid it.
It seems like sanctions "lite"..
Any chance Russians are using this route to leave?
No idea, not being in the EU Turkey may do their own thing. Other countries, possibly India iirc don't even like to refer to a "war". Reckon most with brains have left ages ago.
russia. lies. all. the. time.
putrid bravely meeting his own bodyguards posing as injured soldiers in hospital, paranoia much vladi?
https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1529778219389444096?s=20&t=L_aJ7ho-gnTOPqWxlnIu1Q
Whether Burke said it or not it's true that “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing”
Olaf Scholz.
https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1529372589382041605?s=20&t=rijYWimQJNAlCB2zRGJnGA
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w9.vanillicon.com/v2/99cb88aba86d6cd761548c5d5bb50f6a.svg)
