What's gonna be the GME or AMC of the year? Money to be made still.
PSTH has literally done nothing pricewise the last 6 months (despite everything going on). Surely this is a safe bet to have a position in and wait it out for the good news to come in? Might open back up a position.
To the moon baby !!
it's not 4 months of savings though, is it? look, i lost 89k out of 93k, 2 years ago, and I was pi**ed, but, I had only invested 32 of that a few years before, so I lost 50+, but, I stayed with my 4 k, and i brought it up to 35, where that has been hovering for 30-35k. But that is the market, at the time, if I hadnt tanked, I was gonna pull 85k a month later to buy an apartment, but sh*t happens.
now is the time for opportunities.
I've been in stocks for 17 years, up lots, down lots, but overall, once I'm not greedy or cocky, I will do well, and I definitely have made good profits.
BABA up 11% currently
BABA quarterly results in! Not tanking yet anyways :)
Needs to be mass layoffs for the real fear to kick in.
Usually those big selloffs are as a result of mass liquidations because people are over-leveraged. The slow decline over the past six months, along with all the recession talk, has given people plenty of time to de-risk. We may not see a huge red candle, although I'm keeping cash ready in case we do.
You're right that there's not enough fear yet, but we're getting there. When the fed pivots from their tightening, the market likely will too.
I think the drop has a bit to go yet. Judging by Snapchat earnings, and the US latest housing results especially is a marker for recession.
Ive been wanting to buy in but have been holding back while still pledging cash to my IB account for when it can’t drop much further.
Thank God for stop losses, is all I can say. Got me out of some stuff that has really imploded.
I know market makers etc. can chase stop losses, but I'm small scale soo would hardly register on their radar, I think.
I would tend to agree with you just look at the top ten traded stocks on revolut for the past week
Not nearly enough fear out there yet. Too many people are still 'buying the dip' and holding onto stocks that are down 80%+, until all these people admit defeat and throw in the towel there is more pain ahead. The market will turn up when all the news is still terrible, but we usually need to see some capitulation style selling before a real bottom is established.
To me, the Intrinsic value of a company is the equity plus the present value of all future discounted free cash flows. Strange as it may sound, the intrinsic value of a company decreases every day. It's at it's highest the day the company is founded and it's lowest the day it winds up, if it ever does.
I'm a disciple of Buffett. 😀 I think most people loose money because they don't accept this principle. It you can't begin to project future cash flows, just walk away. It has stood Buffett well over the years.
I wouldnt be too panicked, 99% of people are probably down over the past 12 months.
Probably a lot of lessons for many on here about having a balanced portfolio, thankfully I've had a few dividend stocks like unum and associated british foods to balance out the significant losses from growth stocks like Gan. (I'm still significantly down over the past ~6 months but no wipe out and still up since covid drop).
I however am not overly worried about the growth stocks like GAN...the long term thesis on these stocks haven't been broken. I have learned a lesson not to put money into businesses that I didn't/couldn't fully understand like Upstart.
Google, Meta etc. Aren't suddenly bad companies because there down 33%+ I'll be adding to positions over the coming weeks, in no mad rush though, markets tend to overshoot to the upside but also the downside. (The irrational nature of the market shown by Snap (a small company) dragging down a behemoth like Meta by 8%). Two quite different companies one trading a 52 p/e the other trading at 13 p/e and buying back a massive amount of stock.
There are better days ahead once you can get into the long term mindset.
Some good people to follow to get a longer term mindset = Sean Peche, Morgan Housel and Josh Brown
The intrinsic value won’t be the same because you have a higher cost base and falling revenue which will probably translate to lower margins. You also need to to take into account the impact of rate rise on existing debt which will have a lower MTM and work out the increased cost of rolling over debt. The gearing ratio of a company also becomes more important with rates rising.
Basically there are a lot of moving parts to work out the intrinsic value and you need a reliable model that has been fully backtested to be able to rely on your calculation of the intrinsic value.
I suppose the question now is - is it a good time to buy? Regardless of the price, the intrinsic value is still the same.
Greed and fear move markets and at the moment there is more fear than greed with the prospect of rates rising. It could well be the case that rates will be cut to get the economy going in the future but that won’t happen for at least 12 months and it’s unlikely that the rebound would be as strong as a lot of retail investors will have been badly burned and will become risk adverse and stay away from the stock market.
Its these retail investors that have allowed the big boys to unload some of their positions and take profit and the same retail investors that will have the largest losses.
Well it's good to know I'm not alone. lol
I was thinking what's the end game of the fed. I don't think the economy can sustain and perform well with 2/3/4 % interest rates.
So if they tame inflation and the economy is sluggish they may well drop them again to get the economy going. Market could rebound a lot if this was announced.
I'm down horrificially, held on to bunch of now junk growth stocks that have dragged my portfolio down completley. The only recent greens have been a couple of holdings I have on the FTSE.
Not sure whether to let the laggards go or not at a significant loss. I can't see them ever climbing back up again.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say consumer spending is gonna be down across the board. Everything I'm reading says recessions. House prices about the only thing that haven't taken a massive nosedive so far... I dare say that's next by the end of year (I'm talking very general picture here, not one country or economy specifically.)
Ya, there's blood on the streets now. Even Apple down 3.5% today. You can't keep printing money and not expect the effects to hammer home eventually. The chickens always come home to roost, as they say. Don't for a minute think the likes of Rich Boy Barrett wouldn't print money and hand it out too, if he could.
Question is - is it time to be greedy yet??
Amazing how 10% daily drops on the FAANGs and all the other darlings became so run of the mill in such a short space of time, Facebook well on its way to giving up 5 years of gains there today. Its like a traditional crypto "rug-pull" but happening in the real world with peoples pensions and savings, Biden and the Democrats are going to be annihilated over this, Id say Republican leaders are laughing their asses off at getting to blame the last few years of mismanagement and money printing on the left.
Down 6.5k now, getting painful to look at. Sickening to see 4 months of savings just wiped and no sign it's stopping there.
Was thinking about the whole market and the feds moves to tame inflation.
Lots of talk of a recession as a result. But how low can the market go before the actual bad affects start hitting the economy and jobs market.
And if there is a recession, will the fed reduce rates again meaning another bull market?
Im still up for the year as Hibernia got bought out which gave me a bit of a windfall six weeks ago or so , really cushioned the other falls
my british american tobbaco and rio tinto shares are also up for the year , Tesla my biggest laggard
bought more Disney yesterday ( also bought Google , bought Kingspan yesterday ) , my average is now $112 , stock could easily drop to $80 if we enter a bear market but il just buy more if that happens , Disney is sort of a conglomerate at this stage and while its gone nowhere for several years , its pretty much up there with Coca Cola or Johnson and Johnson in terms of surviving , might not bounce back as strong as Netflix but is a much more conservative bet , that said Ive Netflix booked to buy @$151 , its less than seventeen times earnings right now which is for nothing relative to its long term average PE
Growth topped and has been in a decline since Feb 2021. A lot of those who bought these names after the Covid bear have unfortunately done a round trip and given most if not all back. Everyone only talking about a bear market this week but on the plus side, growth has been in a bear for over a year so the clock has been ticking by for a new uptrend to begin eventually.
Tesla now at $665 from an all time high of $1,243. Kathy Woods ARKK fund seriously down too. A lot of people getting hit heavily with these high profile, so called Growth stocks.
Google/Alphabet stock price at a 52 week low and set for a 20:1 stock split in July. Looks like an easy short term win.
Im green largely based on google and currency movements. Only 10% of cash in shares as either extending or moving soon. I would happily buy into amazon, microsoft and google etc now and will still buy a little each month. I think we are into oversold territory personally. I will play it bit safer though and stay in the googles rather than the twilios
I'm down 4.5k, or about 15%. Haven't bought anything in 2022 yet.
