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Softening house market?

jmb2022

Trying to get a sense of other sellers, their experience, and perhaps the perspective of estate agents out there. Is the once frothy, seller-market softening with the onset of inflation, higher costs of living and concerns around conflict in Ukraine? I'm hearing rumours of houses on the market with declining foot traffic and less offers.

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fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103492#Comment_119103492

maybe a decade or so ago it was all about the land today it costs a pretty penny for both bricks and mortar and labour to slap them together these days

Nero2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103466#Comment_119103466

Their BS tax wont make much difference to prices and they know it.

What will make a big difference is falling property prices. Once prices start to fall you will see empty or "uninhabitable" property flood the market. Everything will reverse, its a self enforcing loop. The reason people keep paying more now is because prices are going up. Once this reverses, it will be the opposite. Its always the same, perception is key.

But the government know this, everything you read is just PR BS.

LJ12345

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103492#Comment_119103492

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103477#Comment_119103477

none of the things you mention have hit hoarders in their pockets, now we have a potential cost of living crises, interest rate increases and hopefully vacant property taxes. The people knowingly sitting on empty assets need to be forced to view them in a different way and change their emotional attachments and anticipation of future price increases. If they’re so lucky they can sit on a non performing asset when society needs it, they need to pay for it so the tax can help fix what they’ve created.

“European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde has given the clearest indication yet that interest rate rises are imminent and will be substantial.”

https://m.independent.ie/business/interest-rates-likely-to-rise-half-a-percent-by-as-early-as-september-ecb-president-christine-lagarde-41679044.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=seeding&fbclid=IwAR1HMKB_ErDa3EGzJdJWM4nvLsHdiE9r2bH4M9ikdEXAVMB0TZKAIE9cgx8

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103665#Comment_119103665

Vacant property taxes are coming, so they will I guess "pay for it".

But it will not make any meaningful dent to the housing market. There will be so many loopholes and exceptions.

I believe one of the government departments (Finance I think) did an analysis of it and determined it wouldn't even be worth the effort, but the government will go ahead with it anyway I guess.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103665#Comment_119103665

Hoarding land is what Irish people do best. I guarantee there are many people who would prefer to see a property knocked down that be forced to sell land due to a punitive tax.

We have the most favorable selling conditions in 15 years so I would also guarantee that an individual or group who can afford to sit on vacant property would be more than willing to pay any punitive fines than sell.

As another poster pointed out, we have been through Brexit, COVID and Ukraine over the past half-decade. Nothing has rocked the property boat.

Unless we see mass emigration or job losses (which didn't happen with COVID) property likely will not collapse. Too much demand, not enough supply.

LJ12345

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103778#Comment_119103778

exactly why a stick approach is needed, funds with multiple units will find themselves forking out handsomely, the stock markets are collapsing, slowing economic growth, shrinking economic balance sheets, funds will need answers for their investors. If vacant property no longer gives the same returns or becomes a drain on their accounts, you need to ask yourself in a strained environment what will they do?

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103704#Comment_119103704

yes, like everything else a cop out will happen once the headlines have passed

they are actively avoiding fixing this issue in the obvious way, building social housing, so unless they get switched out for someone else, it will never be solved

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103858#Comment_119103858

they will continue to take there % fees and carry on regardless, they don't give a rats ass about returns

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103621#Comment_119103621

people keep paying more because prices keep going up?

very astute of you

so the people selling the only house in the area with 7 bidders will be taking a cut

Nero2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103892#Comment_119103892

Yes, very astute of me. Also, prices keep going up because people keep paying more. Astute I know.

handlemaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101623#Comment_119101623

Your mate is going for a holiday and expects to start another job within a few weeks . If construction is going down I assume it will be in a different industry. If she really thinks it is going down that would be smarter move

Padre_Pio

How many units sitting idle are owned by funds?

You'd need tens of thousands to be sold over the next few years to bring any sense of normality. Do they exist?

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103858#Comment_119103858

We are going to see the strain in the Irish commercial property sector, in particular offices, start to manifest. By all accounts, demand for office space (other than from massive MNCs who can afford the latest, greatest, greenest buildings) is on the floor. Workers have not returned en masse for a five day week and it seems like 3 days is the new normal. As this evolves and leases are subject to reviews, I'm sure in an inflationary environment the cost of renting the office that is only occupied half the week will come up for discussion. When we talk of a crash, I think the poster above carving out segments of the market is thinking with the right hat on; some segments will be hit hard, others won't. Commercial offices will be hit hard and the arse has already fallen out of that segment of the market.

therapist3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102193#Comment_119102193

Apart from the fact there's a skilled trades shortage and high job vacancy rate

Energy costs are already baked in

Interest rates can't rise too much because of the debt load, a hobsons choice created by the supportation of bankrupt banks.

Inflation is the only way out, you've seen it before it was called the 70's

The only hope for normal people is to have some sort of hard assest like land or property to shield themselves. You won't be getting rich but it'll shield you from the heaviest pain

Note: I don't own any property

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103375#Comment_119103375

Food prices in Canada have gone up massively, and seem to cost a fortune, as compared to France. I am only guessing the reason for that is that the distances are that big, communities sometimes that remote, that only a truck can deliver, - thus everything in the food chain is based on trucking, and that way more than in Europe. What's really crazy is the price of car insurance in Canada, also considering that you can't do without a car outside of major cities anyway. However there are strong variations within the provinces. In terms of money, taxes, take home pay, Alberta always tends to give the best options, and the eastern provinces, especially Ontario and Quebec often the worst.

I sometimes tend to think that Canada's economy only functions as long as there is a steady stream of immigrants, mainly from 3rd world countries who are willing to work anywhere for any salary, or any hourly wage. And then there is the issue of "dirty money" flowing into the country from very wealthy immigrants but also from 3rd world countries, not necessarily Russia, but India, China, and others.... Immigrants are also often better educated than white Canadians born in the country. Also the drug and opioid crisis and also the legalized Cannabis is mainly a problem for those who were born in the country, not immigrants. Immigrants want to make it happen there at any cost, however bad the salary is.

The housing market in Canada is a bit similar in some parts to Ireland. There are the "big 6" meaning 6 banks who do the lending, and a high intake of immigrants and sometimes artificially limiting supply and prices go up. Limited supply is often blamed on shortages of labour force or goods to build, - the usual, I often believe if's more down to the sheer size of the country and the distances to everywhere and everything. Unlike Canada, there was so far never a crash, or a real crash, in 2008 the market simply stayed flat, and that for a while. The real strong upsurge in prices only started to come about around 2012 or so. I think it's mainly down to ultra low interest rates, and immigrants brining lot's of dirty money into the country and authorities turning a blind eye towards things.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119104000#Comment_119104000

They've already been offered a new job. There are still plenty of building sites. The problem is that a lot of them are shutting down new building now. But still they are all looking for staff.

Nermal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103665#Comment_119103665

No-one believes her. If she cared about inflation, rates would already be 5%+.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119103778#Comment_119103778

You'd be a very silly person to knock a house on a property. As long as the house is standing, there is basically a guarantee that a person can buy that house and refurbish it. Or a decent chance that they might be able to knock and rebuild.

There is a massive difference in value between agricultural value and land value. The value may not be in the structure as it is, but in the right to either rebuild it, or refurbish it.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106404#Comment_119106404

What is the criteria for a vacant house?

Is it a house that is habitable?

A house that needs major renovation to be habitable?

A structure that at one time used to be a house, but is now just four walls and a collapsed roof?

wassie

Ive seen a few examples where basically just an outline of the structure was in place (i.e a few walls) but the floor slab clearly outlined the footprint of the building. Planning was granted on this basis. Essentially it could be rebuilt, even if not like for like.

This issue is planning approval, especially in an area where a 'local needs' town planning policy applies. Very difficult to obtain on a vacant in the same area and hence will be reflected in the asking price.

A site with a house can be typically be redeveloped without too much fuss as the land usage for housing can continue. It may still require a planning approval, but typically this will be to ensure design guidelines and other requirements are met (eg effluent disposal).

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106309#Comment_119106309

once again, currently inflation has virtually nothing to do about the money supply, lagarde and co are working from the neoclassical cook book, so they d be lost!

maninasia

They will be converted to hotels and apartments.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106701#Comment_119106701

You're asking about the criteria for a vacant house? The criteria for that would be one that isn't being lived in for a while.

If you have a derelict house, the more intact it is, the better chance you will have. If you have all the walls more or less intact and a roof, and proof that it was used as a house, then that should be easy. If all you have is foundations and a pile of stones, then your luck might be out.

The biggest issue you might have with an old house is the extra cost due to incorporating the old structure into a new build. But you will get the permission. I know a fella who got permission on an old old clay walled house that had been used as a shed to house animals and other junk for years. It was originally a cottage though. He got permission to renovate and build onto it - but he had to keep the clay walls to the front of the house.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107081#Comment_119107081

Possibly.

I think she was the French Finance minister. Then head of the IMF for years. Then on to the ECB.

I doubt she'd know as much as a random poster on boards.ie. Perhaps you should write to the ECB, enclose your own CV and offer your services?

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105161#Comment_119105161

If building stops they don't need the trads people.

If you are spending an extra 50 to fill your car and an extra 30 on grocery shopping and 100 on gas electricity each month, you either stop saving or stop spending on luxuries going out .... all that feeds in a dent in consumer spending. Ireland has no say in the interest rates. A lot of EU/German and French mortgages are fixed for 20 years so they are shielded if the ECB raises rates, here anybody on tracker or SVR will be hit. Again less free cash.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119108160#Comment_119108160

Might want to check what 'economic qualifications' Legarde has on her CV.

She's a lawyer turned politician. Not an economist. Philip Lane is the man with the serious economic cred there.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119108160#Comment_119108160

fcuk that, lifes too short! you would more than likely only be accepted in such institutions if you were neoclassically aligned, you can clearly see that these ideologies are toast, and these arent just my opinions, but from respected sources, that have been highly critical of such for decades

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119108267#Comment_119108267

And?

He job is not to be looking at Excel sheets and figuring out how to do a vlookup. She has to make the high level decisions. She will have plenty of actual experts reporting to her (plus a board).

handlemaster

When the interest rate start moving up the housing market will cool off no only from new entrants having to pay more but all sentiment. Buyers will wait and see what happens. . Which in turn will lead to more drops... but only a guess who knows

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119108430#Comment_119108430

I know it might seem obvious what the effect of a rate rise would be for people in terms of increased payments, but for some they don't process that until it actually happens. When the first rise comes in and they suddenly have an extra hundred or two per month going out - well at that point it will hit them. And they will start to worry about when the next rise might come in. That is when you start seeing sentiment being affected.