Yes I think this is a very real risk, however Russia also doesn't have an infinite supply of soldiers and equipment unless they force all men into the army and that brings other risks. So it's hard to know who a long war favours/harms more. Unfortunately it looks like we are going to find out
To encircle they must cross the river and we have seen what happened when they tried to construct the pontoon bridge to cross.
Yesterday they blew a bridge that would help achieve an encirclement and then they lost the heavy mortar vehicle that was used to blow it!!.Crazy moves from the russians.
That live shelling, this is where we are RIGHT NOW... you'd hope... would only be better if the journalist was still around when it went BOOM!
The likes of Germany and France hinting at a ceasefire, and an agreement to give up land to Russian, Ukraine having none of it.
IF a ceasefire is agreed, IF Ukraine gives up land
THEN IS MUST INCLUDE FULL NATO MEMBERSHIP AND FULL EU MEMBERSHIP!
No way can Ukraine agree a deal, just to allow Russian to get established and to rearm and attack a year later, it's bullsh it! Any deal must include Nato and EU deal!!
IMO I think that the following is what the RU invasion is all about:-
Overall, Putin/Ru leadership wants to create as much social cum financial hardship;confusion; mis information; conflict , etc , as it can throughout the world as it can on an ongoing basis and AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY. It does not really matter which side wins in any conflict, in elections, in negotiations or wherever as long as it creates decision, conflict , suspicion, etc, etc.
And , well and good if he successfully annex’s part of UKR that he has levelled , in addition to the above, he can leave it ‘ grow weeds ‘ for all he cares , . He will put in his army and populate with Kremlin supporting civilians - and probably financially enticed ones
so the idea of Putin blaming The expansion of NATO for all of this is ABSOLUTE NONSENCE.
pits all about exercising a certain type of power ie. Authoritianism and resetting the clock back to the USSR era. As he said recently the greatest geopolitical mistake made on an international level by any country ever was the break up of the USSR
I think it's possible that they wanted Russia to invade but obviously they cannot say that openly. It's a great graveyard for the Russian military and a pr win for the Americans.
I wonder what’s their thinking? IMO, it is sticking out by the proverbial mile what Germany and France are at. Given their stance since feb 24 They will be first out of the traps to get back to business as usual with RU. 46241. And they will get very favourable terms . I hope the US has the total opposite point of view.
Given the points I made in post no46241 above Russia MUST BE NEUTERED so that it can never threaten any soverign state again in any shape or form. But let it do what it wants to within its own boundaries. Neutering would also include putting an end to cyber attacks. George Orwell would agree with this - based on his last utterances and NHS’s 1984 novel
Putin hasn't and probably won't achieve his goals in Ukraine but he has achieved possibly a greater goal in opening fissures in the EU which I don't know will ever heal.
France and Germany have proven themselves to be totally unreliable and self interested partners.
The Eastern block won't have any faith in them going forward and after our experience of the crash, we should be wary of them too. Both countries get a pretty free ride within the EU from a criticism viewpoint but that really needs to change. They both benefit from being large countries right at the heart of the Union but they're not happy having that advantage. They also want to minimise any advantages more peripheral countries eek out for themselves.
The smaller countries need to start sewing it to these two and the situation in Ukraine is the first item they need to be called out on.
I would disagree that the invasion has damaged the EU. Yes, there has been a difference in emphasis in reactions between Germany and France and other nations to the invasion, but it is far from a schism and there haven't been big public rows over it. Saying that it has led to big divisions in the EU would be hugely overstating the issue - apparently recent emergency EU summits on Ukraine went off reasonably well and without major rancour.
If by fissures you mean that the France and Germanys interests tend to dictate the EU decisions, then yes, they won't ever heal because they have been there since the get go.
Russia has not changed that much, it is a softer and much more open society than under Communism but that's not saying much.
That was my point, the smaller countries are reluctant to criticise either of them regardless of how far off the European script they stray. I think its pretty obvious that the official EU stance and those voiced by France and Germany are not compatible and quite contrary. They may say once thing at the meetings with their EU hats on but their position on a personal level are very different.
Yes and they need to be challenged. The EU is far more than Germany and France in 2022.
The war has been a bit of a disaster nfro showcasing Russian arms. Well made point in the article about the potential pr catastrophe losing a SU-57 would be. Given the known issues it has with its engines and questions about it's overall stealthiness, it makes sense they haven't employed it.
I'd love to see more details on Russian tactics re: bomber employment. It seems wholly amateurish in comparison to the strike packages NATO / US would employ.
With Britain gone it has never been more than for Germany and France. There is literally no one left to challenge them.
I know when the war ends whenever it does what way will this have on both countries populations. I mean Ukraine might go through a baby boom afterwards if they win the war but in regards to Russia will them mean a bigger population decrease in regards people killed but as well as that there might not be a population increase afterwards especially if they loose this war.
Not everyone is Russia is brainwashed https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1528324181758291968?s=20&t=cjhA2lc5nAHTmdluUzhJAQ
I think this is aircraft #205 downed https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1528399032422367237?s=20&t=cjhA2lc5nAHTmdluUzhJAQ
One wonders if we'll see more of this in Russia this summer as the war drags on. There have been a few similar incidents to this reported this week and shown on social media. The regime was surely never planning for a long, drawn out war on its borders.
Oh aye, the only counter balance to Germany and Francle leaving certainly cracked over that fissure.😂
Note with interest that the EU quietly climbed down on allowing members to pay in roubles for gas. Just like Germany wanted.
The reality is that if it had been up to the EU, Ukraine would have fallen no matter how hard they fought, because France and Germany would have preferred that. Its the UK and the US thats' kept the Russians at bay.
Germany steps up at last Rheinmetall from Germany prepares the supply to Ukraine of 88 Leopard 1A5 tanks and 100 Marder IFVs | Defense News May 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year (armyrecognition.com)
German company steps up.... We've seen this numerous times before but then Scholz blocks the export.
The small detail of when it will happen doesn't seem to feature. Germany have dropped massively in my estimation as a result of their response to this war. Never thought much of France to start with but I thought Germany had a bit more about them
Except that had Ukraine fallen, that might only be the beginning of it... I think that now all of the EU are aware of the threat that Russia Poses, and not only the EU, but the whole world. No, Putin has overstepped the mark, and its ripples are spreading throughout the world. He will need to be stopped, and de-fanged at the least.
Or an ever increasing Nr of their soldiers arriving ( or not) home in body bags....
I would suggest that any apparent fissure within the EU can only be massively counterbalanced by Finlands ans
d Swedens application re NATO - although behind the scenes the hopeful fissure caused by Putin will bring him some joy and the NATO thing is just a smokescreen that he pulls out of the hat when he is looking for an excuse to invade
But they don't arrive in Moscow. And Moscow puts out the information. And all remains well.
This means Absolutly nothing until this equipment is on Ukraine soil and the UKr army is trained to operate all of it
FORTE11 from Sigonella https://fr24.com/FORTE11/2bf278b0
https://fr24.com/FORTE11/2bf278b0
Forte11 has been very gutsy with its flight path today, travelling right down past Sochi as far as the Georgia/Turkey border.
I
Of course, Putins Machine suppresses information.....but to suppress it 100%? I don't think so. For a 3 day event maybe, but now after 80 days, you can be sure that disbelief is getting more and more widespread. Now too many sons and husbands are missing, and people are talking. Its telling that Putin has not called for full war mobilization because that might trigger unrest that his goons would be unable to stop or contain.
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