No, and this is where the whole diplomatic effort needs to focus once the actual fighting is done and a peace that secures Ukraine's security is achieved.
Winning the peace and trying to draw Russia towards the West. Isolation and anything perceived as 'punishment' will be counter-productive in the long run. We don't want a resentful, angry Russia that is easy fodder but the next nationalistic demagogue. We want a Russia that is stable, prosperous and fully onboard with the international world order i.e. one that could see that their interests and our interests are ultimately the same. It will take decades.
Don't get me wrong, I hope Putin dies.
I mentioned it earlier and I'm not sure about it. I also think that if they got that far, and tried that, Russia might mobilise it's full army since in Russian eyes, Crimea is part of Russia.
The Ukrainians have said though that they just want to go back to the borders that existed in Feb. They might take some part of the rebel held areas if the opportunity arises, but I can't see them trying for Crimea.
There was no way that Putin would have stepped down at that time if Mendelev would not do his bidding so the poor fellow had no choice. I would not write him off. No matter who takes over , he/she has the opportunity. To rewrite the whole script while blaming Putin for the mess.
I'm not as sanguine - but hopefully we get the opportunity to find out!
It's a bit of a 'what if the attempted assassination of Hitler had succeeded in July 1944?' type question. In all likelihood, Himmler would have succeeded him and the war would have fought out to an equally bloody conclusion.
Medvedev has been sounding every bit as fanatical as Putin lately by the way.
The problem for Ukraine is that Crimea remaining part of a belligerent Russia will effectively block Ukraine's access to the Black Sea on which their economy depends.
The only 2 solutions for this for Ukraine is either a negotiated settlement with Russia including access or a military defeat for Russia kicking them out of Crimea. Although the latter would be extremely difficult, I think Russia agreeing to give Ukraine unfettered maritime access to the Black Sea and Sea of Azov is even less likely.
I think Ukraine have no choice but to go on the offensive and reclaim Crimea to have any chance at a secure state.
Their whole coastline will be a prime target forever while Russia have a naval presence otherwise.
would it not be logical for the Ukr to review its objectives on a daily basis and if it’s ‘tail is up’ and it feels like havin a go at Crimea then why not. If it makes inroads there it can use it as another bargining chip.
France and Germany still making a show of supporting Ukraine but backing Russia.
All the United Europe talk shown for the blather it is. Europes Continental powers still think they can horsetrade other nations with Russia like its the 19th century
I think they realise that Crimea might be a bit too far. Like I said, if they got onto what russia considers it's sovereign territory then they'd have millions of conscripts to deal with. Russia has a standing army of 1 million with reservists of 2 million. Yes, threatening Crimea might give them more leverage, but it might also push russia into a point where it has to commit everything.
Himmler was going behind Hitlers back by late 44/ early 45 trying to negotiate a peace deal with the Allies to stop the Russians advance. Senior Nazis were looking for a way out by then, but Hitler would have none of it and personal loyalty of the Nazi machine kept him in place. Sound relevent to the current situation?
birds eye drone view, like never seen before
Certainly no one wants a further destabilised Russia- but by the sounds of it, Europe looks like it will cave in much quicker than it should in negotiating an end to this war- and I don’t believe that’s a good thing. If a Putinista gets into power after Putin we’re in for a similar regime- the west will appear weak in Russian eyes if we give too much away in negotiations .
Someone is going to have to be the fall guy and that will have to be Putin. What he'll do when he realises this is anybody's guess.
Apart from a few pages back 😛
I think they will go and take Crimea back , Russia can't hold it once it gets surrounded by Ukrainian heavy weapons and tanks , Russia can pack Crimea full of soldiers but there is little or nothing to Stop ukraine from pushing in and taking it back take out the one road bridge and nothing can go in or out
The reality of the situation is the west is backing Ukraine with weapons and Russia with money. Putin is fighting the west and dependent on the west.
Give the man a round of applause
if Ukraine tries to take Crimea back why wouldnt Putin feel Nukes are then a valid course of action, considering it would be an existential threat to Russia
You're practically normalising the use of nukes by assigning logic to Putin's actions.
While I don't think existential threat to a part of Russia necessarily implies nukes, Crimea will be a very difficult circle to square. Russia's problem has always been access to warm water ports, so Sebastopol is absolutely vital to Russia's perception of its world standing. Although it's painfully obvious that Russia is now only a 2nd rate regional power, losing its Black Sea base would be hard for them to stomach. But Ukraine needs unrestricted access to the Black Sea for its grain exports.
A note on the history of Crimea Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea Sixty Years Ago? | Wilson Center
.🤡
Ukrainian commander dismissed Tim Hogan 浩勤 on Twitter: "1. Kommersant reported Galsuhkin out and Tantsyura in as head of Ukraine's territorial defense force. https://t.co/vHJIIR1UZP" / Twitter
But if we look at the map, Russia has a huge Black sea coastline - without Crimea. Look at the coast down to Sochi as far the Georgian border.
I've never really bought that Crimea is such a strategic asset for them.
..
It does, but most of it is beach/swamp. Use Google Earth or satellite view and look at the water colour. Novorossiysk is the only harbour along that coast and it's a fishing village compared to Sebastopol.
I don't think Crimea would be an easy nut to crack - access onto the peninsula is fairly limited from Ukraine , and crimea is hugely militarized and fortified , yeah Ukraine could shut the land-bridge ( and the canal ) and possibly blow the bridge - maybe even make air transport difficult , but Russia still controls the sea.. and has plenty of air-force and air denial left ..
Apt, as I can remember one of the biggest news story at the time for Russia was the opening of the first McDonalds.
The extra territorial waters alone makes it a huge strategic asset.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://wc.vanillicon.com/v2/c33618a99b1d02afaf5370e8c02bf147.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/eedacf599b4135dfd56d6fdbddcbd867.svg)
