I suppose (if Putin does die soon!) you might get a guy (yes, very probably also a KGB associated bad-nik who hates the US/West etc.) that is less vested in this stupid war, and able to blame it all on Putin and a group of fall guys and call a halt to it.
That would be an improvement. Maybe I'm just a foolish optimist.
And therefor the iron curtain should be put in place ASAP because we are dealing with a totally and very dangerous unknown. Russia should be left to its own devices and the rest - those countries at the other side of the curtain- should continually watch their backs for Russian sympathisers in their mist, cyber attacks , etc, etc. Ditto for any country / group that are RU sympathisers and this by the way includes Eg Crotia, China , north Korea
Optimism is a good trait. 🙂
But just to counter-balance that one, it could also be a Lenin to Stalin-style handover. There is no guarantee.
Whatever happens, it is clearly in the world's long-term (i.e. decades) interest to try and draw Russia into the fold of democracy and mutual co-operation. Imagine a scenario where a future Russian president signed an application to join the EU! That seems a virtual impossibility right now of course but Germany being a cornerstone of democratic Europe would have seemed even more unlikely in 1941. None of us have a crystal ball but we can encourage our governments to take the long view of history...or else we will repeat it.
Reading from short to long-term, the priorities must be:
A bit harsh including Croatia on that list
We do buy a fair bit of stuff from China. Where do all these solar panels so beloved of our SEAI and Greens here come from?
Chinese manufacturing in dirty coal powered plants are said to be a substantial source.
That's not a strategy correct horse.
If Russia didn't have nukes, a paranoid dictator and bad habits like destablising Western democracies or invading their neighbours, then it could work. It would just be a big empty, ignored space on the map.
But unfortunately we don't have that luxury. It has all of those things. And will still have them after they lose in Ukraine.
So the West has no choice but to engage. Not now, but in the long-term, it is imperative.
Putins daily briefing:
I guess years of brainwashing and disinformation have done a good job in Russia
Yes, I’d be pretty confident that Germany and other EU countries will be buying vast amounts of gas from Russia down the line.
Putin is old and maybe sick. He is toxic now to deal with so countries might wait for the next guy which might not take too long. It will take much much longer than 15 years to build the Russian military up again, it has been essentially destroyed as a threat to the west (bar nukes).
In Russias weakened state there may be a chance to get cheap gas for a few decades to allow transition to green energy.
Russian equipment all too often looks well fecked alright, but steel exposed to air and moisture flash rusts on the surface fierce quick. The tracks are in a state of constant wear in use which scrapes the corrosion off, but if a tracked vehicle is left for even a week open to the elements it'll look rusty. Tanks and APC paint is constantly being worn by the ground under them, rubbing off vegetation etc and people climbing in and out of them. They need a lot more upkeep than a family car to stay looking "new". Though because the metal and construction is a lot heavier and thicker they can outlast even the best protected cars by decades. WW2 tanks that have been found in fields and the bottom of lakes have been restored. Soviet tanks from that period are near famous for their longevity, where ones stuck as monuments on plinthes have been restarted and driven away.
Russians opinions on the war https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1524275166045384704?s=20&t=Hh-lHe5nFGkWbHNzsKhZFA
The West will have no choice but too continue to deal with Russia and accept certain realities after this war is over. I note that the New York Times today has a leading article on 'Ukraine's War's Geographic Reality. Russia has Seized much of the East'. While the west celebrates repeated Ukrainian successes, Russian has managed despite numerous setbacks to capture much of the Donetsk region. Western political leaders will resume trade relationships as soon as a peace deal is put together, regardless of how much anger there will on sites like this That's how it always was in history, how it always will be.
Very doubtful, as we've seen energy dependence on Putin's Russia is a no-go. Gas is infrastructure heavy, once the change is done it's unlikely that countries will revert. I suspect Putin will be around a long time, the only thing that would force him to go would likely be health issues, if that occurs he'll choose a successor who will be very much in line with his thinking.
6a UkR join NATO
You think Russia was 'isolated' during Communism? Interesting, although completely wrong.
Zelensky has already said they're willing to drop that one. So I think point (3); 'Achieve a lasting, just peace for Ukraine with security guarantees' would cover us there.
Righteous anger may feel good, but it's not a strategy. All your posts are polemical with very little reasoning behind them. Don't get me wrong, I'm fully onboard with 'winning the war' but you also have to win the peace. Otherwise you go back to war again. That's why we have the EU, the UN etc.
Russia will be engaged with again, hopefully in a way that helps lead them away from this self-destructive path they are on and towards the democratic norms that we enjoy.
Apart from the girlfriend (in white) possibly that was less brainwashed responses, more 'do you think I'm stupid, I can't answer truthfully on camera'.
You should have a read of what Fiona Hill (probably the world's leading expert on Putin's thinking) is saying on this topic before issuing such categorical opinions. And indeed the DNI yesterday in her testimony to Congress.
I don't really think that either of us will change the other's mind but I'll leave you with two thoughts from history if your absolutist approach had been adopted by the statesmen of their times:
You have to win the peace - and that's a much harder and subtle process than winning a war.
US hardware supplied to Ukraine so far (this is before the latest multi-billion dollar package)
In general I'd agree with you, but no way will the West regularise with Putin and his cronies. Did you miss the part where Putin's appointed TV officials were discussing destroying the UK (and Ireland, not that they considered that)? He has gone too far.
I wonder what those unmanned coastal defence vessels are and if they are used around snake island
As far as he's concerned, if you're not integrated with the West, you're isolated. It's a bit of a 'fog in the channel, continent cut off'-type point of view.
I'm not suggesting 'engaging with Putin'. He needs getting rid of.
I'm saying in the long-term, Russia needs to be engaged with in a constructive way that leads them towards lasting good behaviours and benefits everyone - Ukraine, Russia and the wider world. Otherwise we'll be back on this thread in 10 years time.
Russia was never a normal country lol
Only cure for Russia is democracy,and that wont happen with the level of corruption in Russia and old hard men ruling it with backgrounds from KGB and Military.
Well, I didn't want to be so blunt. 😉
Well in those small rural areas of Russia thats poor doesnt have access to internet,so russian state sponsored tv is the only option.
And we know what information they are giving
Well it is easier to type "orcs" and look for putinbots, trolls and reds under the bed.
Re not joining NATO was put on the table when both sides met a few times recently but those meetings came to nothing so I would expect that they start off , whenever that will be, with a ‘clean sheet ‘ . And again, for because what has happened since , I doubt very much if it is still ‘on the table’ eg what the Rushians did in Burcha and elsewhere, the Russians behaviour in Mariupol and the very good progress the UKranians are making in the war eg have stretched the 3 days out to 78 days and counting, the ‘assistance’ it’s getting mainly from America
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