It wasn't green energy as such, that was the problem, it was the Russian order, acted on by Merkel and others to ensure that other alternatives to Russian energy were quickly removed so as to ensure energy could be leveraged over the continent.
That was the real kicker.
It could split the Belarusian military into for/against Ukraine. They are already split to some degree but it could get more serious.
Britisn is doing exactly what Germany is doing stopping shipments but buying gas from Netherlands and o and btw Ireland is connected to the British Gas supply via the interconnector.
If Belarus attack Ukraine I'd be fairly certain of one thing... Putin MIGHT survive this, but Luke wont be long for this world.
I mean the eu has made great strides socially and economically since inception.
But it is not a superpower, there is only one superpower both economically and militarily and there is one challenger to economic superpower in China.
The EU is not a sovereign nation either, under stress, there would be large divergence between east and west within the EU for example. Mark my words, you will see the French and German's pressuring Ukraine to accept negotiation terms with Russia before the end of this.
Someone needs to remind lushenko that he was Russian made weapons and vehicles ,the same burning vehicles currently littering the Ukrainan countryside .
The NATO argument for non direct intervention is to avoid a nuclear war.
Also is NATO did intervene directly the situations for civilians would be worse not because NATO would target them but there would be more intense fighting.
Germany will phase out Russian oil within 6 months. A few smaller countries (Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia) will get a short deferment. And that's it - no more Russian oil imports to the EU.
If it weren't for the Eastern Europeans (sure what would they know?) and the Ukrainians own outstanding PR efforts I doubt at this point things would have gone past non-energy sanctions and maybe a few dozen individuals. At the same time, whatever about propaganda, the amount of footage and before/after photos of genuinely "nice" areas being levelled has surprised even me. Compared to Russian towns and places similar economically, they had more nice parks and well maintained streets etc. than I expected. Then hearing about toilet seats being robbed and the stealing of feckin kitchen appliances and it frames things really well as a forward-looking optimistic nation versus a backwards and backwards-looking nation lashing out.
..
Belarus looking to tie up more Ukrainian troops at their border or worse
From the Guardian:
Belarus will deploy special operations troops in three areas near its southern border with Ukraine in response to a “growing threat” by the US and its allies, the armed forces said, as the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, said Moscow had agreed to help Minsk produce missiles.
Belarusian chief of general staff, Viktor Gulevich, said:
The United States and its allies continue to build up their military presence on the state borders of Belarus. The strength of this force has more than doubled in the last six months.
He said the build-up of military presence by Western allies “testifies to a growing threat to the Republic of Belarus”, adding that Belarus is also deploying air defence, artillery and missile units for drills in the west.
The announcement comes after Lukashenko earlier today said Moscow had agreed to help Minsk produce missiles to beef up its military capabilities.
Speaking at a meeting of defence officials, Lukashenko was quoted by the state-run news agency, Belta, as saying that events in Ukraine had demonstrated the importance of having troops with modern, highly effective weapons and supplies.
Lukashenko said he won the support of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for people involved in missile production in Russia to take a look at Belarus’ developments in that area.
He said the Belarusian army is combat-ready and will be able to “inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy” in case of external aggression, adding:
We are realists, we understand that we will not be able to defeat Nato. However, we have all the weapons to do damage, especially to the territories from which we will be attacked.
The Belarusian president said he was “not hinting at anything, but I want everyone to understand the range of the weapons we have”.
Sorry, would not go that far (the EU as "superpower") but it (the institution itself) is doing quite well with the tools it has available and limitations it works under (like veto powers, and need for full consensus on the issues outside its competencies) alright.
Recent increase in shipments could make a big difference for the Ukraine army including U.S. M777 Howitzers, P2000 Haubitze self propelled Howitzers (NL,Germany), Caesar self propelled Howitzers (France), Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft (Germany), T72 tanks (Slowakia), Switchblade Kaimikaze drones (U.S.), Starstreak laser anti-tank (UK), NLaw anti-tank (UK), Bayraktar TB2 drones (Turkey), plus ammo and supporting new radar jamming kit.
Well we've done this to death and I just don't agree it is as easy as you say to stop everything now. You moved away from calling for an immediate cutoff of trade before, but you are back to it now saying x amount going "to Putin" each day the oil & gas trade carries on etc.
That is not a gift to Russia either. They get money, Europe gets energy. I hope it will end soon. I think it is impossible also to have EU embargo if one country will not agree to it & I don't think Hungary/Orbán ever will, but people don't seem to like to talk about them as much as (Bad) Germany here.
Am not an expert on EU procedures, but (being pessimistic) I feel the only way Hungary can be got around here is if their voting rights can be suspended by all the other members (incl. Poland) turning on them (here's hoping!).
edit: Again I just see no evidence that an embargo will stop the war immediately (but it may end it faster I admit). I think Putin may already be taking Soviet weapons from their stockpiles when Russia is running short of more modern stuff. While they may be outmatched by more modern and better Western weapons, they can still kill people and wreck cities. Putin can print money to pay his soldiers and if they don't like the fact the rouble doesn't buy them much any more, they can lump it (or be sent to jail perhaps).
is Belarus about to enter the fray?
Cutting Russian oil/gas is happening - fast. At least recognise that reality in a universe where energy policy takes decades to implement.
Duke 50 has been flying to and from the same areas since the start of the war ,
To try to contextualise the speed and scale of the change, the EU has turned into a superpower, almost overnight.
Power doesn't just exist in the hard variety either.
True, desperate times and all that. He and others are very right about reliance on the US, but the overall European reaction is alot better and faster today for all the flaws than I think the reaction was to what was happening in Yugoslavia (admittedly, that was not as serious).
The biggest dependency is on USAs giant military (one of the few times in my life it is the "arsenal of democracy") and their willingness to get engaged in these events going on in Europe (thank f-ck it hadn't died a death completely yet when this happened). However much some want to laud the actions of the UK, they can't help Ukraine here much more than the EU members. While they haven't let the military decay the way Germany has, they're no US.
Some on here can completely dismiss helping Ukraine with their refugees, economic aid and non military aid as basically worthless and unimportant if they like + focus on the weapons, but don't think they are right there.
Belarussian opposition leaders say such a move would be hugely risky for Lukashenko. There is a lot of opposition to the war in the country and most people there have no particular quarrel with Ukraine or Ukrainian people.
Drop the Bono/U2 talk
What russian peacekeepers? From where? Dombas? Moscow? Will they finally send their 'A' team?
Lukey [Lukashenko] has looked nervy from day one of Putin's invasion of Ukraine. If he did order any such military action it would be after some major shove from Russia. What's more, I bet plenty in Belarus would support Ukraine before Putin's Russia. Any such action from Lukey would be a death warrant for his own career. I could see him doing a runner to a safe haven. Poland alone could crush Belarus in a jiffy.
I wouldnt be surprised the blackhawk below did some kind of medivac from Ukraine. Transponder only switched on during the way back and landed at a Rzeszow Hospital before continuing on
Might I say
This is comedy gold Mick, and your still miffed no doubt Bono wouldn't come down and open your new stadium down in Wexford town.
Give her a rest will ya. The nato speel has been thoroughly debunked many many times over.
Ukraine have allready reinforced their border with Belarus in the west,since they expected an attack to come from that direction from the beginning of the invasion.
And being so close to Poland means shorter supply lines for Ukraine as well,so if Belarus are on a suicide mission,go ahead.
Not a hope
#live from the polish border
It's a misleading tweet. The main route to Western Ukraine from Belarus heads towards Brest on the Polish border before turning south towards Ukraine. Any Belarussian troops going to the Ukrainian border will for a while be heading in the direction of Poland.
Lukashenko has no chance of getting far enough into Western Ukraine to disrupt supply lines. This I suspect is Putin's exit strategy. Force Lukashenko to invade and have a domestic rebellion. Russian peacekeepers arrive to secure Belarus. White Rus rejoins the greater Rus, win for Pooty.
Can you imagine the Belarus officers getting the orders to attack NATO. Talk about the messenger getting shot... There would be instant revolt. I doubt they'd persuade them to attack Western backed Ukraine, never mind NATO proper.
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