With the leader of the main Unionist party applauding speeches calling the GFA 'iniquitous' and 'deceit' are the upcoming elections a test for the seminal agreement?
It's hard to know what will happen if the DUP manage to get their vote out and maintain the majority vote.
It's funny because Blanch appears to be quite upset that the Unionists have lost the first minister position for the first time ever!
By far the biggest shift there is the rise in the number of 'Other' voters this year, and that presumably reflects a big move in PUL voters to the Alliance from the UUP and DUP. Indisputably this shift reflects these voters becoming more liberal and progressive, but the question I am posing is whether they are becoming any less Unionist at heart and thus whether the rise of the Alliance reflects a decline in Unionism per se.
SF/SDLP vote in last 7 Assembly elections.
1998 – 39%
2003 – 40.5%
2007 - 41.4%
2011 - 41.1%
2016 – 36%
2017 – 40%
2022 (incl Aontu) – 39.6%
I guess you could add in PBP. Thry designate as "other" but in reality they are pro a UI.
But even then the nationalist vote has really grown in 23 years.
It's a good question.
IMO This is the demographic who are angry at being taken out of the EU. This is the demographic who have no issue with Irish passports or all Ireland sporting bodies or their Irishness. Moderate and soft Unionism in other words, who can no longer find a home in the DUP or even the UUP.
These are the persuadables in my opinion. Which again underlines the urgency and need of a conversation and the preparation of a plan.
Thus you can add in the 1.2% for the pro United Ireland PBP taking it to 40.8%
Hence the lack of opposition by the Alliance to a Border Poll and their request for clarity on such. They're aware of the make up of the pro-EU make up of their voters in a region where 56% voted against Brexit.
If looking at trends in "Nationalist" vote you also need to look at trends in Unionist vote in the same breath
As more nationalist and unionists shift to voting for unaligned parties like Alliance, the absolute share of both will decline, however the really telling figure is what nationalist vote is relative to unionist vote.
The trend on that is that nationalist voters are increasing relative to unionist voters, or rather unionists are decreasing more than nationalists. Either way its not exactly the gotcha type statement certain posters think it is.
There wont be a border poll till nationalist parties get 50%. Thats the problem.
Not true, See court case where the SoS's hands are not tied. He/she can call a border poll for whatever reason they want and do not have to evidence it.
Its now a political decision in my view... i do not think the people who signed the GFA and agreed on shared ministery will allow this to drag on as in the interest of what they tried to achieve nearly 25 years ago... Perfect timing brexit, protocol and the Ireland can be fixed at same time... perfect...
So the British government decides. So that means thry eont call it without 50% voting for nat/rep.
No, that is just the comfort blanket of those afraid of the conversation and a BP.
The British will call one when it is politically expedient to do so.
BTW the Scottish Ref was called when support was at 30% because the political pressure was on Cameron. Not hard to see the same happening here.
So it is imperative we begin to prepare, only those who admire Brexiteers would recommend anything else.
The best you can up with Francie is that the share of the vote hasn't changed since 1998.
In other words, while I am saying that there has been a decline, your response is that there has been no progress since 1998, which has happened despite all the nonsense about demographics.
As for 2016, do we really need to go back and look at your posts back then denying that it was an exceptional vote, and you claiming it was part of the inevitable progress towards a united Ireland? Really, do you want us to embarrass you like that?
I have admitted I got this election wrong in terms of the SF vote, but underestimated the swing to the Alliance. It was born of my naivety that the nationalist community was moving away from the extremes at the same pace as the unionist community. Another lesson from this election is that unionism is showing more in the way of moving towards the middle ground than nationalism. The nationalist community needs to reflect on that.
You mean everybody should look at the declining nationalist vote and stop calling for a border poll in breach of the GFA?
I still think it's a massive leap from there to someone from that demographic actually voting to leave the UK and join the Republic, which effectively means chaging their national identity. The research evidence indicates the number of people from a CNR background who vote to remain in the UK will vastly outnumber those from a PUL background voting for a UI...
Keep dreaming. More harm has been done to a border poll in the last 48 hours than in anytime since the GFA.
When people are having problems getting a doctor or paying their electricity bill in the North, Sinn Fein are wasting their breath on a border poll.
Ridiculous nonsense. The sooner we see the back of the DUP, the better. The unionist community is rejecting the extremes which is a great thing. If only the nationalist community would do the same.
First we had Mark turn his back on the SDLP now we have blanch calling those who voted SDLP a wet week ago 'extreme'.
Man, but youse can do a pivot in a heartbeat.
ROFL.
We have Fintan O'Toole, the onetime darling of partitionists in a British newspaper today saying this:
As for a united Ireland, only a fool would think it’s coming soon – and only a bigger fool would think that it has not, in some form, come closer
I think Fintan just called you a fool blanch. 😁
The calls to begin preparations for a border poll are only getting louder. The fear from Unionists and partitionists to even allow this to begin is getting hysterical.
The British Government can leave any time they want but they wont as they need to resolve the problem they created and allowed to feater over their lack of interest... forst opportunity they be out... there no way in my view they let this opportunity slip...
Johnson isn't the babooning fool people seem to think he is...
So, the Tory government have integrity and Johnson ain't a moron?
Where do I start with this?
From which I deduce between yourself, Francie and others that yous have no meaningful suggestions as to how to progress matters. What I have I hold is the mantra. I suppose citizens of NI will just have to stew in it for a good while longer. Eventually enough people will have sense. We'll see a progression away from the extremes on both sides and towards the middle ground.
I am only talking in context of NI... MM this morning wanted to talk about cost of living in NI instead of this... you want to talk about UK...
Completely separate topic to this...
The nationalist vote hasn't moved at all in 25 years. The demographic inevitability of a UI is a myth.
There is NO decline in the nationalist vote
Eh yes there was.
There wont be a border poll until there is a clear majority in favour of a UI, and we are still in the 30-40% at the moment, where we actually need to be in the 60%+
A generation or two away from such a poll.
SF want to focus on a border poll as a way to hide the fact that they are abject at running the place.
Tell that to someone who said it was a demographic inevitability.
My point has always been that it is the inevitable solution to the failure of partition, and partition has failed more than nationalists.
It may be a failure in your opinion, but poll after poll shows that the majority of NI are happy with the status quo. Guess they don't share your view on NI being a failure.
Don't 10% of SF voters back the Union?
LOL
How do you run the place Mark when you have Unionists refusing to form an Executive? When you have Unionists caught with their hand in the till evading any responsibility while also refusing to recognise agreements made on the provision of rights for a whole range of people.
*grabs popcorn.
Now the place you are happy to portray as a sectarian and divided society when it suits is a success.
I think any place that requires an international agreement between two governments just to function can be described as a failure. Not even that agreement can get it to work now as a political party is holding it to ransom to try and get their suprematist way.
You do know SF have been in power there for over 2 decades? Sooner or later they will have to step up and be counted.
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