With the leader of the main Unionist party applauding speeches calling the GFA 'iniquitous' and 'deceit' are the upcoming elections a test for the seminal agreement?
It's hard to know what will happen if the DUP manage to get their vote out and maintain the majority vote.
I think you are right that this part of the
Roman Catholic = United Ireland and Protestant = United Kingdom
equation does not necessarily hold.
The latest Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) Survey reveals that the continued union with the UK commands almost 53 per cent support. It also found that a significant number of Catholics — 17 per cent — want Northern Ireland to remain in the UK.
whereas I would say the second part of the equation largely does, i.e. I find it hard to see anything more than a tiny handful of 'cultural Protestants' actually voting for a UI when push comes to shove in a border poll.
I doubt it, think of all the 'Catholics' is nice cushy well paid public service jobs, bankrolled by the UK. Buying the peace it was called. And their families.
Do you honestly see turkeys voting for Christmas?
There are many middle class ordinary families of NI doing right nicely thank you very much.
To best my knowledge,the demographics match up like 97% at last analysis.....with only slightly higher levels of church attendence in the 6 counties
Surely its a reasonable,if somewhat crude,methodolgy of highlighting how demographics are changing and those likely to reunite the country have been born already??
Naive much. You can't possibly reduce such a matter to a simple test of religion.
The idea that Roman Catholic = United Ireland and Protestant = United Kingdom is just clutching at straws.
If you're a northern citizen, shows just how warped and simplistic thinking up there can be!
And by the way, down south, we've run the Catholic church out of the country practically. No one gives a toss about mass and religion much down here anymore.
Naomi comes from a staunch loyalist background
I think a border poll would likely fail but having one should be considered. It would give everyone a lay of the land.
He's the Bruton rump of FG, likely keeps Jeffery in the FG WhatsApp group.
Thought the talk of a border poll silly and premature. SF and nationalisms mandate isn’t strong enough for this, let alone winning one. Taking the crude seat count Nationalism actually lost 4 seats.
You would think that the Unionists would be more organised next time there is a vote so SF will have to get some agreement if they want the first minister role even if it means little but going to be very hard to get Jeffery to back a SF nominee at the moment .Also talk of a border poll is mad still a fair few more Unionists up there who will never agree plus people whose vote would be soft even if they voted non unionist parties .
Has the allaimce gain not essentially matched uup and sdlp losses?
(May suggest an age demographic issue for em...il personally look forward to further data releases for clarification)
The notion of owned/loaned votes is 1950s political satire,the image of tuv voters in belfast transferring to sf makes a joke of it surely?
That makes Nationalists on 35 vs Unionston 35, with the centre-ground bing on 20. In fact Nationalists lost seats if you count the 4 losses from the SDLP.
Bigotry is a hell of drug....the desperate efforts to cook the books are brilliant🤣🤣🤣
'SF will lose seats'. :)
A stark reminder of your credibility there.
What 'fight'?
Would you ever give over. Nobody should be surprised that they have called for one.
Still not a peep of criticism out of you about the 'Democratic' Unionist Party refusal to participate because they aren't top dog anymore. Attack your nemesis is the order of the day and more important. Gas. I can feel the pain from here.
Keep it up, we need people like you on this side to drive the inevitable forward.
Ah yea, more ad-hominons from you. Sorry, but not going to take lessons in humility from the likes of yourself who has no credibility on anything.
SF 27
DUP 25
Alliance 17
UUP 9
SDLP 8
Independants 2
TUV 1
PBP 1
Alliance is the big winner here, and it signals a move away from Sectarian politics.
She was Mark - the real history you refuse to recognise. Still being locked out by bitter and belligerent Unionists.
Now she is leader in waiting. An extraordinary story by any metric.
That you cannot bring yourself to recognise what this means for so many Irish people illuminates a lot about partitionist bitterness.
They didnt gain any either. Many SDLP voters loaned their vote to SF and now the real work starts. But alas, SF don't really care about the day to day stuff, but straight away want to have a fight about a border poll, where everyone else is talking about creating and reforming the assembly that works for the people.
A teenage mum, whose entire family are Republicans and has many relatives in the PIRA?
She wasn't some complete outsider.
Because it would the the end of the Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber arrangement of FF and FG swapping terms in government. Snouts would be ripped from the public trough. FF is currently on 16% in the opinion polls. It could go below 10% in a reunited Ireland if it survives. FF and FG may have to merge or end up on the political scrapheap like Labour.
Regards...jmcc
I disagree, I see form everything The Alliance say that they will be fully involved in a conversation and campaign when the BP comes.
They are not committing now because there is nothing on the table. That is completely understandable.
You will see the anti-UI/Unionist/partitionist brethren here adamantly stating before the election that it 'wasn't about a border poll' but now interpreting the results as what might happen if there was a border poll. Predictable and funny.
The conversation about a BP and a UI has not properly begun yet. Thursday's election cannot be credibly read as what would happen in the event of a Unity plan and campaign and a BP.
P.S. The 'UK' is not out of the EU...only a part of it is.
But the UK is now out of the EU and shows no sign of going back. If they are not going to move towards favouring Irish unity now when are they?
The fundamental question here isn't what position the Alliance takes but what their voters would actually do when faced with the binary choice of a border poll. And I can't see anything more than a tiny handful from a Protestant/Unionist background, however woolly and liberal and progressive, actually voting for a UI. Probably the best help SF could hope for from that quarter is many are so apathetic and disengaged from politics they wouldn't bother voting in the referendum.
If you listened to what she was saying around Brexit, it was very clear she wanted to stay in the EU and consequently aligned with Dublin.
Unionists listened and labelled her as a 'nationalist'.
It's implicit in her stance (Unionists will tell you) that if it comes to a decision, stay with non-EU UK or go with EU Dublin, what she will do and advocate for. Hence the hate campaign against the Alliance from belligerent Unionism...it was pretty full on pre the election.
No, is the answer to the question you asked, but you can have a pretty good guess based on her previous position.
Id surmise a max of 5 to 10 years,as the older demographics die off and rising youth vote could see a pincer type movement increasing probability annually,to sever the union
Because like,trying to see confidence and supply as opposition not coalition
Like the ric/tan commeration,even going as far as refering to anyone pointing out facts,as sinister elements
Lik the president/public not wanting to celebrate ni 100 years....
like them wanting jump in bed with nato
They simply arent in touch with population,as the media like to sell em....this also largly how they refered to them pre-covid monster town hall meetings shinners used hold after last election as sinister and undemocratic....difficult to hold em in anything other than distain after them.utterences
Tory party chair Oliver Dowden has said the Government will honour the constitutional obligation to hold a border poll on the future of Northern Ireland if “there is a sustained majority” in favour of unification.
Till SF and other pro reunification parties get 50% their will be no poll. Thats in keeping with the spirit the agreement that was signed in 1998.
Demographics will lead to it. Nope.
It will inevitably but not for a long time yet. Mid-century at the earliest
If FFG are so convinced a border poll will fail why are they so against it?
Demographics will lead to it however,with catholics believed to outnumber protestants at last census
Those,who will vote to reunite the country,are most likely born already
Naomi knows that they would have a far better representation in an Irish parliament and could do what Alliance want to do - work for the people 'here' in Ireland.
Has she or the Alliance ever actually said anything like this, or even hinted at it?
A United Ireland will happen because:
When formed nationalism claimed NI is too small to work. Nope.
The IRA will bomb their way to it. Nope.
Brexit will lead to it. Nope.
Now we are at the stage where people are claiming that a upsurge in the Alliance party will lead to a UI Ireland. :)
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