NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

FrancieBrady · 08-05-2022 10:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030895#Comment_119030895

Yeh, they surely did ask them to get involved in politics.

What they neglected to say was that involvement had a glass ceiling and that they would be stopped when they reached a certain point. Cynical and utterly doomed political playacting from the power swap, as we can see happening in front of us.

No problem to FG in particular inviting belligerent Unionism into the fold and giving standing ovations though. Look how that bit them on the arse. 😁

08-05-2022 12:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027571#Comment_119027571

The alliance party used be nominally listed as unionist party for admin purposes

Their offial position is they want,what is best for northern ireland and if reunification is proven it,so be it.....time to impress upon naomi long the sociatial benefits of a utd ireland

Though alliances increase,would seem to be near entirely draw from uup and sdlp drops,deos this suggest a demographic roadblock agewise for em??

FrancieBrady · 08-05-2022 12:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031437#Comment_119031437

What galls Unionism is that they have figured out that Naomi knows that they would have a far better representation in an Irish parliament and could do what Alliance want to do - work for the people 'here' in Ireland.

landofthetree · 08-05-2022 12:30PM

A United Ireland will happen because:

When formed nationalism claimed NI is too small to work. Nope.

The IRA will bomb their way to it. Nope.

Demographics will lead to it. Nope.

Brexit will lead to it. Nope.

Now we are at the stage where people are claiming that a upsurge in the Alliance party will lead to a UI Ireland. :)

Loafing Oaf · 08-05-2022 12:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031449#Comment_119031449

Naomi knows that they would have a far better representation in an Irish parliament and could do what Alliance want to do - work for the people 'here' in Ireland.

Has she or the Alliance ever actually said anything like this, or even hinted at it?

08-05-2022 12:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031469#Comment_119031469

Demographics will lead to it however,with catholics believed to outnumber protestants at last census

Those,who will vote to reunite the country,are most likely born already

RandomViewer · 08-05-2022 12:37PM

If FFG are so convinced a border poll will fail why are they so against it?

Loafing Oaf · 08-05-2022 12:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031469#Comment_119031469

Demographics will lead to it. Nope.

It will inevitably but not for a long time yet. Mid-century at the earliest

landofthetree · 08-05-2022 12:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031494#Comment_119031494

Tory party chair Oliver Dowden has said the Government will honour the constitutional obligation to hold a border poll on the future of Northern Ireland if “there is a sustained majority” in favour of unification.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2022/we-will-honour-commitment-to-hold-border-poll-says-tory-party-chair-oliver-dowden-41624183.html

Till SF and other pro reunification parties get 50% their will be no poll. Thats in keeping with the spirit the agreement that was signed in 1998.

08-05-2022 12:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031494#Comment_119031494

Because like,trying to see confidence and supply as opposition not coalition

Like the ric/tan commeration,even going as far as refering to anyone pointing out facts,as sinister elements

Lik the president/public not wanting to celebrate ni 100 years....

like them wanting jump in bed with nato

They simply arent in touch with population,as the media like to sell em....this also largly how they refered to them pre-covid monster town hall meetings shinners used hold after last election as sinister and undemocratic....difficult to hold em in anything other than distain after them.utterences

08-05-2022 12:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031497#Comment_119031497

Id surmise a max of 5 to 10 years,as the older demographics die off and rising youth vote could see a pincer type movement increasing probability annually,to sever the union

FrancieBrady · 08-05-2022 12:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031479#Comment_119031479

If you listened to what she was saying around Brexit, it was very clear she wanted to stay in the EU and consequently aligned with Dublin.

Unionists listened and labelled her as a 'nationalist'.

It's implicit in her stance (Unionists will tell you) that if it comes to a decision, stay with non-EU UK or go with EU Dublin, what she will do and advocate for. Hence the hate campaign against the Alliance from belligerent Unionism...it was pretty full on pre the election.

No, is the answer to the question you asked, but you can have a pretty good guess based on her previous position.

Loafing Oaf · 08-05-2022 01:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031549#Comment_119031549

But the UK is now out of the EU and shows no sign of going back. If they are not going to move towards favouring Irish unity now when are they?

The fundamental question here isn't what position the Alliance takes but what their voters would actually do when faced with the binary choice of a border poll. And I can't see anything more than a tiny handful from a Protestant/Unionist background, however woolly and liberal and progressive, actually voting for a UI. Probably the best help SF could hope for from that quarter is many are so apathetic and disengaged from politics they wouldn't bother voting in the referendum.

FrancieBrady · 08-05-2022 01:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031642#Comment_119031642

I disagree, I see form everything The Alliance say that they will be fully involved in a conversation and campaign when the BP comes.

They are not committing now because there is nothing on the table. That is completely understandable.

You will see the anti-UI/Unionist/partitionist brethren here adamantly stating before the election that it 'wasn't about a border poll' but now interpreting the results as what might happen if there was a border poll. Predictable and funny.

The conversation about a BP and a UI has not properly begun yet. Thursday's election cannot be credibly read as what would happen in the event of a Unity plan and campaign and a BP.

P.S. The 'UK' is not out of the EU...only a part of it is.

jmcc · 08-05-2022 02:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031494#Comment_119031494

Because it would the the end of the Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber arrangement of FF and FG swapping terms in government. Snouts would be ripped from the public trough. FF is currently on 16% in the opinion polls. It could go below 10% in a reunited Ireland if it survives. FF and FG may have to merge or end up on the political scrapheap like Labour.

Regards...jmcc

markodaly · 08-05-2022 02:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119028151#Comment_119028151

A teenage mum, whose entire family are Republicans and has many relatives in the PIRA?

She wasn't some complete outsider.

markodaly · 08-05-2022 02:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119029422#Comment_119029422

They didnt gain any either. Many SDLP voters loaned their vote to SF and now the real work starts. But alas, SF don't really care about the day to day stuff, but straight away want to have a fight about a border poll, where everyone else is talking about creating and reforming the assembly that works for the people.

FrancieBrady · 08-05-2022 02:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031872#Comment_119031872

She was Mark - the real history you refuse to recognise. Still being locked out by bitter and belligerent Unionists.

Now she is leader in waiting. An extraordinary story by any metric.

That you cannot bring yourself to recognise what this means for so many Irish people illuminates a lot about partitionist bitterness.

markodaly · 08-05-2022 02:16PM

SF 27

DUP 25

Alliance 17

UUP 9

SDLP 8

Independants 2

TUV 1

PBP 1

That makes Nationalists on 35 vs Unionston 35, with the centre-ground bing on 20. In fact Nationalists lost seats if you count the 4 losses from the SDLP.

Alliance is the big winner here, and it signals a move away from Sectarian politics.

markodaly · 08-05-2022 02:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031919#Comment_119031919

Ah yea, more ad-hominons from you. Sorry, but not going to take lessons in humility from the likes of yourself who has no credibility on anything.

FrancieBrady · 08-05-2022 02:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031892#Comment_119031892

What 'fight'?

Would you ever give over. Nobody should be surprised that they have called for one.

Still not a peep of criticism out of you about the 'Democratic' Unionist Party refusal to participate because they aren't top dog anymore. Attack your nemesis is the order of the day and more important. Gas. I can feel the pain from here.

Keep it up, we need people like you on this side to drive the inevitable forward.

FrancieBrady · 08-05-2022 02:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031922#Comment_119031922

'SF will lose seats'. :)

A stark reminder of your credibility there.

08-05-2022 02:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031922#Comment_119031922

That makes Nationalists on 35 vs Unionston 35, with the centre-ground bing on 20. In fact Nationalists lost seats if you count the 4 losses from the SDLP.

Bigotry is a hell of drug....the desperate efforts to cook the books are brilliant🤣🤣🤣

08-05-2022 02:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031892#Comment_119031892

Has the allaimce gain not essentially matched uup and sdlp losses?

(May suggest an age demographic issue for em...il personally look forward to further data releases for clarification)

The notion of owned/loaned votes is 1950s political satire,the image of tuv voters in belfast transferring to sf makes a joke of it surely?

rolling boh · 08-05-2022 02:56PM

You would think that the Unionists would be more organised next time there is a vote so SF will have to get some agreement if they want the first minister role even if it means little but going to be very hard to get Jeffery to back a SF nominee at the moment .Also talk of a border poll is mad still a fair few more Unionists up there who will never agree plus people whose vote would be soft even if they voted non unionist parties .

road_high · 08-05-2022 03:18PM

Thought the talk of a border poll silly and premature. SF and nationalisms mandate isn’t strong enough for this, let alone winning one. Taking the crude seat count Nationalism actually lost 4 seats.

RandomViewer · 08-05-2022 03:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031981#Comment_119031981

He's the Bruton rump of FG, likely keeps Jeffery in the FG WhatsApp group.

RandomViewer · 08-05-2022 03:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032203#Comment_119032203

I think a border poll would likely fail but having one should be considered. It would give everyone a lay of the land.

bricksNDmortar · 08-05-2022 03:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031479#Comment_119031479

Naomi comes from a staunch loyalist background

Furze99 · 08-05-2022 03:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031486#Comment_119031486

Naive much. You can't possibly reduce such a matter to a simple test of religion.

The idea that Roman Catholic = United Ireland and Protestant = United Kingdom is just clutching at straws.

If you're a northern citizen, shows just how warped and simplistic thinking up there can be!

And by the way, down south, we've run the Catholic church out of the country practically. No one gives a toss about mass and religion much down here anymore.

NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

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