With the leader of the main Unionist party applauding speeches calling the GFA 'iniquitous' and 'deceit' are the upcoming elections a test for the seminal agreement?
It's hard to know what will happen if the DUP manage to get their vote out and maintain the majority vote.
"He’s of the view that unified cross-community politics is the key to the eventual unification of the country — i.e. a United Northern Ireland must exist before a United Ireland."
And I think he's right on the money. We have a fair bit of experience with referendums in the Republic over the years. And the one thing that is apparent, is that the case for any referendum to pass must have a solid consistent substantial majority in opinion polls before any vote is put to the public. Inevitably during a campaign and when it comes to the actual vote, support fluctuates and usually wanes.
In the context of any border poll, there's a huge amount of work and rebuilding of relationships for that to happen. There's plenty of posters on these pages who think a border poll/ referendum on Irish unity would be done and dusted with 50+1% majority up north. And that the southern electorate would roll in and buy it too. That's two big improbables at the moment anyway.
I dare say Alliance will do two things 1) sit back and watch the inevitable bun fight between SF & the DUP 2) campaign for a move away from the binary idea that either republicans or unionists should be the building blocks of a Stormont assembly.
Would SF be in favour of the latter? Maybe but I'm not sure, the more influences you allow in at how things are run, the more you weaken your own party position. Would be viewed as a threat. On other hand, might allow for a way around a 'unionist veto' or a 'nationalist veto'......
An amazing story really.
I’ll enter a gentleman’s bet with you that DUP enter government. Cap and gown
It could end up 26 / 26 between DUP & sinn fein.
Very slight chance though
But if it did happen it would be a massive blow to sinn fein and an abject failure to capitalise on the much increased younger voter who very obviously went to the Alliance who could take 18 seat - way beyond their wildest imagination.
I would love for this to be the end result. egg on face time
I have counted a definite 27 seats for SF with another 2 possible elsewhere
More likely 28 29 Sinn fein
27 max unless unionist transfers suddenly start going to sf.
Only way of 26 would be TUV transfer going to sdlp in fermanagh/ST. Highly unlikely. :)
I have potential 29 I think will be 28 thought
If Gary Midleton gets through in Foyle, it may end up 27/27.
damn - mis counted. Best DUP can get is 26
Interesting question. I think it ultimately comes down to who the Alliance party takes more votes off of. Right now, they look to be hurting the DUP a bit worse, so I think the attitude from Sinn Fein towards the AP will be mildly positive.
unless SF end up with less seats than the DUP, then its clearly egg on face for the DUP
Why do the DUP want to power share now all of a sudden, it never was power sharing or at least felt it anyway, unionists looking for identity crown British etc ugh
That ^^ didn't age well.
It's very interesting that there was no Tricolours 🇮🇪 or singing at the counts where SF won. SF know they need to make room for Alliance voters, and other moderates, to create a large progressive majority that will call for the Protocol to be worked, keep the integration of the N/S on track, and isolate the DUP.
This also lays the groundwork for future elections, SF toning down the bravado is making it easier for young people from a PUL background, who are turned off by Unionist bigotry and sectarianism, to vote for Alliance/Greens etc.
Unionism has been well-and-truly out-maneuvered and will continue to be because it can't help itself.
I think I read an article during the week that if people switch parties before the first meeting, that they will count in the "new" party rather than the one they stood for (but their first pref. votes wouldn't go towards a tie-breaker)
Any of the Nordies on here be able to speculate whether something like that might happen pr how likely it would be?
Bryson is like a demon all day over on Twitter.
Alliance are have seen polling gains mostly in the over 60s.
It's all well and good going for the progressives but SF would not want to forget its working class base either.
There are more voters than just off the Malone Rd.
First of all congrats to all SF supporters here...
Good day for Island ...
Well it's official sein fein have won the election 😁
But the ordinary people of NI don't vote for the DUP; bigoted chicken-littles' do.
Are you gonna take that 10% from their vote or seat total to help you sleep better tonight?
So as always Mark, you've nothing to fear from a border poll.
Your Partitionist cohort will win it easily. Be grand.
Why would you think that?
They've yet again shown that they can't get over the horror of Séamus Mallon's Partitionism.
They're going through a small death. The sooner the better they merge with Labour or FF or die. Their race is run.
Well the BBC has finally admitted that Northern Ireland was a Protestant State for a Protestant People, hopefully Unionists will wise up in the next election and continue to vote for the Moderate Alliance party and dump the Sectarian, Homophobic and Bigoted Unionist parties
This result will change the course of Irish politics... FF/FG cosy likttle arrangement will finish with UI... there will be less people in a United Ireland dail and less jobs to go around north and south. this for me is the reason they went North... What they are saying the want fir last 100 years is in-sight and they are afraid of it... I expect the one be most happy with this result is Boris as he wants NI gone. I am wondering if the the parties who signed the GFA will have any input in this going forward... It will be interesting to hear the comments in the coming days... i think there is a possibility that the parties who created the GFA will want the politicians of Ireland North and South to fallow through and have a vote on a UI in this Assembly term... I really don't think it be an option to wait as i think Bertie suggested which is crazy... We waited for an opportunity and when its here we have to take it before it goes away...
To be fair the government in the south pleaded for nationalists to abandon violence for politics , Sinn Fein have done just that and now their top dog in the north .
this has to be acknowledged, the younger demographics of the six county’s show that the nationalist community will only get bigger , there will have to be a border poll in the near future .
Not neccessarily, if anything this election showed younger people are looking to move to non aligned centre parties like the alliance. While i agree its an historic time for SF and Nationalism they didn't increase their vote share or seats, the DUP simply reduced theirs and in fact the other nationalist party SDLP lost 4 of their 8 seats which is the same number unionist parties lost while Alliance picked up a massive 9 seats.
I think a lot of people are getting distracted by the historic idea of SF first minister and ignoring what voters have indicated in that politics in NI is maybe ready to really move away from the traditional alignments that existed in NI for a century.
Labour, FF and FG now stand indicted in assisting the fall of the SDLP, did they think the northern electorate were stupid and would not realise what they were up to?
Do Lab FF and FG think they have a chance of winning if they have decided on these underhand tactics that have no real regard for northern people and are designed for their own political aims in the south.
