With the leader of the main Unionist party applauding speeches calling the GFA 'iniquitous' and 'deceit' are the upcoming elections a test for the seminal agreement?
It's hard to know what will happen if the DUP manage to get their vote out and maintain the majority vote.
To let sf back in derry,after that all was alleged to gone on around anderson and co....is some blunder.....sf should have been dead there a generation
DUP are going to have to compromise on their stupid opposition to the NI Protocol if they ever want to be the largest party in Northern Ireland again. It's not so much that Irish Nationalism is growing to any great extent in the North, but younger people and more politically-moderate Unionists have to be be feeling sorely alienated by some of the DUP's blinkered stances.
So, that party can either choose to get with the program or stick their head in the sand. If they choose the latter, it won't matter. The electoral realities will remain the same. Sorry.
You've already voted to accept the outcome of a border poll when you voted for the good Friday agreement
Mark Carruthers crucifying Sammy Wilson now, is a thing of beauty.
Will you admit that you were wrong in saying that SF would lose support and seats, it's an easy thing to do.
Few years back whenever FG ran two candidates in this constituency they used to be tearing down each others posters. Quite funny
Can Colum Eastwood survive this? Can the SDLP survive? What a shambles for them.
ML has said no reason now we can’t have a BP within 5 years think she’s right not sure we win it first time around but after first that’s the tree shook
Voting counts stops at 11pm and will resume in the morning, I'm afraid incase DUP break in over night and rob or give themselves votes, this is looking good for a united Ireland
FG won 76 on 36% in GE 2011....shinners presently on 32 to 34%.....surely the prospect of being within single digits of overall majority with similar level vote management as today,isnt unrealistic?
Their vote management in south has tradionally been a massive issue...... it caught em out badly in a diastorous local elections in 2019,where naivity and inability to react to redrawn constituencies cost em like 80 councillors
Like its a great result,looks like.they have it mastered in the 6 counties,they need sit down and learn what lessons needed and distribute this info to local level across free state....no reason we cant hope for change here too
No, there isn't a fair chance of that unless their vote increases hugely as well.
This notion they arent transfer friendly isnt standing upto scrutiny....several sinn fein tds were elected on 2nd and 3rd counts last time,with outside local popularities/issues,their transfers were every bit as comparable as other big two parties??
What do you think you'd be doing with a 'win'? You think the issue would go away? You think it'll reverse a pro-UI vote in the north? You think a UI won't be automatically declared the instant a majority vote for it in the north? You think the current constitution would be appropriate in the south? The flag? Who claims to be the inheritors of the revolutionary past?
Have you thought at all?
Just remember that should a border poll ever come about, you'll need the votes of those Irish citizens that you're insulting in order for it to pass.
I don't know everything but I know where to find out.
Northern Ireland Assembly Elections 1972-2004
After the suspension of the Stormont parliament in March 1972 by the Westminster authorities successive British governments have sought to return some measure of devolved power back to Northern Ireland politicians. In pursuit of this goal various assemblies and other institutions have been established and these have included the Northern Ireland Assembly (1973-1974); the Constitutional Convention (1975-1976); the Northern Ireland Assembly (1982-1986); the Northern Ireland Forum (1996-1998); and, the Northern Ireland Assembly (1998-2003 and 2003-present).
The electoral franchise for all these bodies was based on universal adult suffrage. However there have been important differences in terms of the methods used to elect members as well as in the make up of the electoral constituencies. The elections for the Assembly in June 1973, the Convention in May 1975, and the Assembly in October 1982 were conducted by PR-STV and 78 seats were contested based on the (then) 12 Westminster constituencies.
For the election to the Northern Ireland Forum in May 1996 a new approach was adopted. In this instance five candidates were returned from the 18 Westminster constituencies drawn from party lists. Initially candidates were elected by PR-STV using the Droop quota with the remaining seats decided by d�Hondt or highest average. A further 20 seats were then to be divided amongst the 10 parties across Northern Ireland who received the highest number of votes, making a grand total of 110 seats.
In the contests for the Assembly in June 1998, and again in November 2003, the 18 Westminster constituencies each returned six members for a total of 108 seats by means of PR-STV.
I've no intention using the name given to the northeast by those who seized it against the wishes of the Irish people. Don't cry about it though - you call it what you like.
And more
Here work it out
I thought you knew everhything... serriously when did PR system start in NI... i think part of GFA but not sure...
Don't know.
What's the combined 1st Pref of SF & SDLP as against combined 1st Pref of DUP, UUP & TUV? Do you know, must be close enough.
What's this thing with referring to Northern Ireland as the 'northeast'?? I think the GFA refers to the entity as Northern Ireland?
Like those dopes who refer to the Free State.
SF nearly 67,000 First preference votes ahead of DUP
If SF end up having first minister i expect the debate will start immediately and it will likely be led by people from outside the Island...
There'll also be more constituencies, not just increased amounts of larger ones.
However, a Belfast West style four seats from five (or even three from four) is all but unheard of in ROI. FG managed it in Mayo in 2011, with the leader's local popularity bounce getting them 65% FPV.
Also, SF are still not transfer friendly to any great extent, so getting to two in a four (needing 40%) would be rare and three in a five (needing ~48%) exceptionally rare from 34%.
The constituencies where the get more TDs will be the ones with locally higher votes (e.g. Dublin West 42.8% FPV last time and two seats from four), that the national FPV is an average means there will be constituencies where they underperform.
65-70 seats from a potential 170 is possible. 80+ (the single figures off overall you said) is not, unless their polling figures go well over 40%.
70 ensures that a coalition has to include them or basically everyone against them; and while we've had two ABFF governments they were in times of fewer parties and virtually no Independents. That would be seen as a victory for any party.
This whole UI thing has been centuries in the making and we have time on our side, it's not like the northeast is drifting away. The fabric of this country is being stitched together and there is nothing unionists/partitionists can do to reverse it -- soft unification is happening day-by-day,
I think focusing on the 'how' rather than the 'when' is more sensible. Political unification will be the final piece of the puzzle.
Up Sinn Fein!
Biggest party on the island of Ireland.
1/10
Doug Beattie under pressure id imagine his transfers from DUP diehards will be hard got after the Markethill debacle
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