If being an unaligned country with a large army is no deterrent to Putin's ambitions is it time for ROI to join Nato?
The only thing that would protect us if we were to go it alone would be a massive fleet of fighter jets, missile defense system, a large navy and nuclear weapons.
We would need an army the size of Ukraine's. And even they didn't have enough, considering weaponry is pouring into the country every day.
There's no point in having 5-10 fighter jets. They'll last about 5 minutes in a war, as they'll be blown up from a missile attack.
here's the thing.... you don't have to
you can contribute to the NATO force without fielding soldiers.
I would say a risk for Ireland would be a country like Russia annexing a portion of Ireland for military use, as they did in Ukraine. Ireland would have huge strategic importance for Russia. And they could also use they dont intefere with us card or we will use our nuclear weapons. Russia now is unpredictable and we should prepare for the worst. I mean even Iceland are part of Nato.
Also on the topic of reducing the Irish defence budget over the years. This should be considered treason. Russian corruption in Ukraine did the same over the years. A minimum budget should be set, with increasing amounts over the coming years until we qualify for Nato. The benefits of been in Nato means we would not need to buy expensive equipment like jets. I think relying on the goodwill of our neighbours for protection is careless and naive. The best attacks in war come by surprise. Ukraine had security assurances from Russia on its soverentiy (Budapest Memorandum), see how well that turned out.
True, swings both ways.. He knows exactly what happens to Russia, that’s not the point.
It is a win or accept Nato inside Ukraine? I don't know call me crazy, Russia is unlikely to accept it lost the Ukraine war to Nato. With the current leadership in Russia, they must win at all costs? Do you think differently?
I don't want to play the chicken game do you with Putin? Russia accepted states like Poland and others in the east are now members of Nato. They may not like it but they have accepted it.
Warnings were given over Ukraine and the west failed to listen. What happened there is horrible but it was evitable. I know people can’t accept that with their Ukraine flags now but Russia will bring Ukraine into its sphere of influence here and after that, we got to address our relationship with Russia for the good of everyone.
Want a Nato war with Russia, bringing us all down with ye for what? to prove a point? There are established treaties that Nato has, Putin, is aware of them. Ukraine, not a member acting as if it was?
It swings both ways, does Putin want to gamble that the US wont kill millions of russians if he launches nukes?
Neither side are going to break that deadlock, its absolutely irrational.
Putin trying to scare people with badly veiled threats doesnt change that, just makes him look desperate.
Russian army inside Ukraine fighting to accomplish its aims and goals.. Russia warned Ukraine and the west over the Ukraine issue and did we ignore their concerns and warnings?. Do you really want to take this gamble that Putin would not use nuclear weapons to defend Crimea? Nuclear war is a warning, Russia warning tends to become real. .
I don't see an Afghanistan pull out here that seems unlikely, i think Ukraine will be crushed here even if weakens Russian power economically. .
You haven't explained why you think we should end military neutrality?
The EU member states would be in the EU defense force. NATO has non European nations in it and I think it is important for the EU to have its own defense capabilities so that it can react to situations that are more focused on concerns or issues that could arise for the EU. Just because we are a small nation does not mean we can not contribute. Maybe going for a more niche contribution. So for example given we are an island we could focus on upgrading our naval and coastal capabilities.
As for being neutral we are not neutral in general. We are only militarily neutral and IMHO I think we should end that. Clearly you believe differently and that is one of the beauties of us living in a free and open society.
I think that nobody wants such a war, that's why I'm confident it will never happen.
Most of the idiots calling for us to join NATO or any military alliance would soil themselves if they were sent to war.
I dont fancy sending me son or daughter to war which would have zero bearing on Irish sovereignty
The problem is Russia has already launched unless you doing the preemptive attack. It only takes seconds to release them. There is very little chance of stopping the devastation. We know want war between the United States vs Russia means. The fact some people want that kind of war says something does it not?
Yes, we should join NATO. If for nothing else to help other democratic nations in greater danger than ourselves. Our geographical location would be useful, obviously we don't yet have decently funded defense forces. I'm dead set against an EU army, led by donkeys, sorry, Germany & France, no thanks.
Who's going to be in this EU defence force when everyone except Ireland and Austria are in Nato (in a couple of months)? Seems it's even less likely to happen than it has been before. And what is Ireland going to contribute to it? Might as well stay neutral then.
An existential threat, is a threat that could end the existence of Russia as a country, not Crimea or any other region they claim as their territory. We also have to remember that this is just a russian statement, it holds little value, it is the world as they would like it to be but it is not reality. When it comes down to it, are they willing to end the existence of Moscow because of a Ukrainian attack on Crimea? I doubt it.
Rational thinking went out the window Putin is engaged in a new war against the state of Ukraine. The only outcome that will be acceptable for them is a win.
This is not Putin, but Russia’s state thinking.
Russia would only use nuclear weapons in the context of the Ukraine conflict if it were facing an “existential threat,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN International Tuesday.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220322-russia-would-only-use-nuclear-weapons-faced-with-existential-threat-kremlin
Donbas Lugansk and Crimea before the new war got supported by the Russian state,
Crimea belongs formally to Russia ( Russian opinion). Ukraine attacked Crimea is this not an existential threat?
What happens if the weapons provided could change the course of the war? logistics are legitimate targets if used to supply your enemy remember.
Most of NATO's members do not spend 2% of gdp on defense. Ireland was spending 1.5% as recently as the early 1980's and IMHO we should gradually increase our currently military spending from its current 0.3% till we get back to that 1.5%. My preference is to see us join a likely EU defense force and end our current military neutrality as the EU is where we are and where our futire lies.
Ukraine is the one country Putin would consider launching nuclear weapons for. How will the west protect itself from submarine launches or hypersonic nuclear-tipped launches? There are no defensive weapons in the western allied arsenal that can stop a hypersonic ballistic missile from reaching its target in the west.
The defence against those weapons is that you can launch enough straight back at them to wipe them out multiple times over. It really doesn't matter that you can't hit back at the sub which lauched the missiles or hit them in flight. That's not the point of having nuclear weapons.
For me the calculation is very simple. If Russia does not use nukes, nukes will not be used against it, if it does use nukes, nukes will be used against Russia, therefore if Putin is rational he will never use Nukes. The question is, is he rational? I am sure Russia could devastate some western cities but so what, mutually assured destruction still stands, it is irrational. Ukraine is not an existential threat to Moscow. If he wanted an existential threat he would fire a nuke, otherwise no existential threat.
Got to remember Crimea is part of Russia
Ukraine was to win the war in the east and south, by some miracle the threat to Crimea is existential then. Russia may go nuclear to stop the Ukraine army from advancing. I don't think get that to this stage. Russia has the military might to conquer Ukraine but will require a full declaration of war to do it.
Not enough military-aged men on the Russian side inside Ukraine to conquer it all from north to the west. Full mobilization could see millions of men crossing the border, Ukraine's army could not stop that kind of force. Taking over Ukraine would be a long-term project and nobody was sure that Putin goal. Think he would like the government to be replaced a more Russian friendly one but thats a different position.
Thats a flawed logic because the west is in ruins anyway after missiles are launched, Putin knows what firing nuclear missiles means here for the world.
Started giving Ukraine modern tanks, artillery anti-air, aircraft, then Russia would be forced to take them out and that couldn’t kick it all off.;
I don’t want WW3 over Ukraine that’s nuts, some people on this site seem to want to go there. Have e you got no future want that kind of war? What kind of life must you be living to want WW3 over this? Get out and check the scenery do want all that gone?
Russia maybe have tolerated arms supply because they have no choice. You are speaking as if they are the only one's with nuclear weapons. I mean if they launch a nuclear attack, they will be wiped off the face of the earth, so its not really a choice Putin can make either.
Ireland might as well join Nato, since Russia likely has placed the country on their hit list. Cannot be neutral when you have taken a hostile position against Russia. The Irish leaders have taken this stance (they feel is right) in that case, here Irish citizens who disagree will have a chance to tell them their wrong ( at the next election) I don’t have any figures of what every Irish person thinks here about joining Nato, the real point is the Irish government has joined a western axis of assistance for Ukraine.
Russia's ballistic missile command under orders reprogram a few essential nuclear missiles to hit the Island of Ireland? Take a bit of work on their side. Would they bother doing it?
Countries in the west provide the logistics to help Ukraine fight Russia. Ukraine is not alone here. Essentially, a Nato war now.
Russia so far tolerated the arms supplies to an extent, but the more heavily advanced equipment they give Ukraine, the higher the risk and move closer to nuclear escalation. Do you really want to gamble Putin will back down if we gave Ukraine better weapons? The man attacked more of Ukraine to keep Nato away from Ukraine. Putin's army not going to leave Ukraine “ever” till he perceives the country in the sphere of Russia. Anything less than this aim is a humiliation
What's the alternative here? pump 2% GDP and put other Irish people's lives at risk so we wont feel a bit of embarrassment? We must have very delicate pride.
I wouldn't say its that. More that any invasion of Ireland is the UKs problem ultimately so why worry excessively about it.
Ireland isn't in a position to repel a significant invasion force, but any force would only be doing so in order to attack the UK. Would be relatively easy for the UK/ NATO to take out any invasion and demolish their supply lines, so what does Ireland gain from NATO membership. Better off pleading neutrality and letting NATO and whoever slog it out amongst themselves.
Ireland should spend money on coast guard, smuggling, fisheries, immigration level responses. No point getting involved in a fast jet fight that they are decades behind getting started in and would never be able to accumulate the forces required to be useful in such a fight.
Joining NATO just makes Ireland a target. At the moment though it's a world of hassle for anyone to attack Ireland and provides zero benefits to any attacker as they wouldn't have taken out any NATO forces, but would get a response from NATO whilst they sit on an exposed island next door to one of the main NATO powers and multiple US airbases.
Attacking Ukraine was a daft move by Putin. Attacking Ireland as the next target would be totally off the scale of stupid military moves.
Ireland is useful for UK/ EU / Nato retreat from Europe, or for US liberation of Europe. Its really not a useful target at any point for an enemy of Ireland until well into a long WWIII that hadn't gone nuclear for some reason.
Were you exiled from Cork or to Cork?
So, again, rather than manage our own affairs we cling to the coat-tails of the UK.
Some sovereign nation we are
If anyone wanted to invade Ireland, it would be with a view to invade Britain. The British are not going to allow a fleet of Russian warships or planes invade the land beside them, knowing what they are up to.
This NATO talk sounds like the lovechild of Simon Coveney.
Ireland is a very useful location for the US to stage a liberation of Europe from, other than that not so much. Would have been useful decades ago for naval and radar, but doubt that is necessary these days unless the UK and rest of Europe has already fallen... By which point NATO membership really wouldn't matter.
Reminds me of laughing very hard at this film when I saw it as a boy.
Its a terrible location with completely untenable supply lines for anything to do with Russia whatsoever. They're having enough trouble keeping Kaliningrad supplied at the moment.
This is fantasy stuff.
We're the gateway to the Atlantic ,an ideal location for a Naval and radar installations along with Shannon airport ,
Could be an ideal location for training facilities
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