Yeah I'm not saying I agree with the excuses/reasons the US have been and will probably continue to use w.r.t. more advanced weapons: simply repeating them.
But again I think the key issue with the Predators and Reapers would be the fact that they're commonly piloted from US soil; and thus Biden will not be willing to ship them to Ukraine for fears of that aspect of escalation in particular. Aside from the fact they also weren't willing to transfer old Soviet fixed-wing aircraft let alone more modern fixed-wing US aircraft.
The other more practical problem for the Reaper in particular is that its large and thus much more easily detected by Russian radar; and is not able to evade or defend against attacks. For example Russian/Soviet equipment has possibly led to the loss of at least two General Atomics drones over Libya in recent years.
In March 2019, the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI) published a report that alleges that Russia’s vaunted Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) capabilities in the Baltic region are overrated.
As we all know,Russia is known for its overhyped military systems and equipment
They Lost a few over Iraq and Afghanistan too ,
Surely the point that the US and NATO are already flying global hawks over ukraine and the blacksea unchallenged and the Americans already publicly acknowledged they are providing ukraine With real time intelligence from aircraft over ukraine , moots the point about fearing some kinda escalation if they send predator or reaper type drone
Seriously, how would you suggest anyone was going to corroborate evidence of the use of chemical weapons in Mariupol - fly an OSCE team in by helicopter to take statements, blood samples and swab the munitions remnants, and for them to then all saunter back to their ride and fly off into the sunset with Russian troops cheerily waving them goodbye?
The reason Zelensky focuses so much on weapons is the same that has driven me to give a reasonable amount to Ukraine's military fund and not a cent to the humanitarian one. Bullets are the only way to lessen the need for bandages. A military win is the only way to stem the creation of refugees. Killing Russians saves Ukrainians.
"Paul De Grauwe argues that Russia simply lacks the economic resources to sustain a prolonged conflict of this kind and that the world should be deeply concerned about the potential for Vladimir Putin to turn to unconventional means as an alternative. ... The second pillar of Russia’s power is, of course, its nuclear arsenal. Nuclear bombs do not win a conventional war, but one can destroy a country with them, in the blink of an eye. And here lies a great risk for the rest of the world. What will a dictator do when he realises that he cannot win the war by conventional means but by other means? That remains the most terrifying question today." https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/02/russia-cannot-win-the-war/
"CIA Director William Burns says "potential desperation" from Russia's Vladimir Putin to portray a victory in Ukraine increases nuclear weapons risk. None of us can take "lightly" the threat posed by a tactical nuclear weapons he says. (April 15)" https://eu.usatoday.com/videos/news/nation/2022/04/15/cia-chief-putin-desperation-raises-nuclear-risk/7337115001/
"What makes the use of tactical nuclear weapons plausible (although not likely) to me is their unequivocal messaging value. The use of one or more tactical nuclear weapons would be an unmissable attempt by Putin to break the unity of the West, and to test the resolve of some NATO countries. It would also signal once and for all his willingness to do whatever it takes to achieve his political and strategic goals." https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/a-hurting-stalemate-the-risks-of-nuclear-weapon-use-in-the-ukraine-crisis/
The author of that opinion:
"Francesca Giovannini is the Executive Director of the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs. In addition, she is a non-residential fellow at the Centre for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University.
Ms. Giovannini served as Strategy and Policy Officer to the Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), based in Vienna. In that capacity, she oversaw a series of policy initiatives to promote CTBT ratification as a confidence-building mechanism in regional and bilateral nuclear negotiations, elevate the profile of CTBT in academic circles and promote the recruitment of female scientists from the Global South. "
And I could go on. I find your belief that Zelenskyy is spoofing and just fishing for sympathy and weapons to be a sever misjudgement of his character and intellect. I think he is serious and is echoing what other reasonably informed and qualified people are voicing. I don't think he's a man to cry wolf.
Not sure if previously posted but the latest Russian propaganda says they are not fighting Ukraine, rather they are fighting NATO, the ordinary Russian probably asking when did that happen?
Russia threatening the Czechs now who seem to have laughed it off ,
Czechs can't send Soviet era equipment to ukraine without Russian permission 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Apparently their service records are then marked as them being "inclined towards treason".
And a Tweet on the matter making an important point - "Did you cast the stamp? So it's a mass phenomenon. This is good":-
Czechs should fax them the text of the Budapest agreement in response... and highlight in bold all the parts the Russian fascists have violated.
Anyone good at counting? I'm guessing about 50 odd saved, assume the rest perished.
Just another threatened country to add to the list:-
Wouldn't be surprised if they were fake ,
Have you noticed that they use particular tight angles to film the so call survivors
A very sensible essay on the war Russia's War in Ukraine Enters Its Decisive Moment - The Atlantic
The real survivors are probably already serving 15 years hard labour for bringing such shame on themselves and the motherland for allowing the "accident" to happen.
One theory is that they find the prospect of losing to the vastly inferior Ukrainians absolutely galling and now have to spin it that they are fighting NATO instead. Their arrogance and racism knows no bounds.
Highly likely yes , that or sent it insane asylums to prevent them from going public
"After the stay of the Russian military in Sumy region in the village of Bilka, the remains of chemical weapons were discovered About this, the mayor of Trostyanets Yuri bova said on the air of the Ukrainian radio.
"We found in the village of Bilka the remains of chemical weapons – sarin and other substances. They found ampoules. Now the Security Service of Ukraine is doing this. Perhaps, with this chemical substance, the occupiers wanted to beat either in Kiev, poltava, or other cities," said the mayor of Trostyanets."
I hope they get the OSCE in to verify that.
After all a savvy and stable genius like my friend Vladimir isn't going to let his sailors go to the bottom of the Black Sea, contrary to what the fake news media would have you think
Good article detailing the various wars/conflicts Russia has been involved in since the fall of the USSR (11 in 31 years), they are:-
1. Civil War in Georgia or South Ossetian War
2. War in Abkhazia
3. Armed conflict in Transnistria
4. Civil war in Tajikistan
5. First Chechen war
6. Second Chechen war
7. Armed conflict in South Ossetia (Samachablo) and Russian-Georgian war
8. Annexation of Crimea
9. War in Donbas
10. Russian military operation in Syria
11. Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine
https://zaborona.com/interactive/russias-wars-en/#rec431901853
Fair enough, I hadn't seen that. Last I saw was the cryptic comments about not being responsible for every disaster etc. and comments about reaping what they sow.
I still don't believe them. It continues to make absolutely no sense for Russia to have done it to themselves. They do indeed have a track record on this, but it would involve attacking civilians and riling up the populace. Attacking a fuel depot doesn't do this - all it does is help Ukraine militarily. Why does a Muscovite give a crap about a fuel depot somewhere being hit? No one internationally gives a crap about their claimed provocations or believes them. It would be spectacularly stupid.
Another one:-
For all we know, the fuel depot was empty \ needed to be replaced... I wouldn't put anything past the Russians.
But to clarify, it's obviously fake news, Gen. Frolov wasn't killed by Ukrainians. The "truth" about his death is quite similar to what happened to the Moskva: His uniform caught fire and some ammunition exploded. After that an ambulance tried to rescue him, but unfortunately the bad weather killed him.
Sure, but there remains no point to it. Much like I'm pretty sure they didn't severely damage their own rail line in Belgorod either.
The Russian authorities do not give a **** about their people. If they wanted to commit a false flag operation they would bomb an apartment building - something that would actually make the average Russian care.
The lies of the Russians are so laughable it reminds me of this scene in Monty Python...
Great thread on the 1853-1856 Crimean war which is relevant to today:-
They could sink the remaining Black sea fleet with those
Yep but that's why their actions don't have to have a point to us. It is 1984 territory. I'm not saying you are wrong, but they have entered a world of lies of propaganda that they really are capable of bonkers actions.
Russian lives are cheap. Russian fuel depots are not. That's why they needed to blow up a fuel depot.
I've skimmed the report and the crux of its argument about the 400km maximum range is that:
Since the most potent long-range missile is still not operational, the currently fielded system uses the same long-range semi-active missile as the later versions of the older S-300-system, thus limiting range and performance against all targets but large aircraft at high altitude...
However the 40N6 missile with a range of up to 400km is claimed to have been approved for purchase by Russia from 2018 onwards: https://tass.com/defense/1026630
In any case even if the maximum range was 200km the argument and conclusions are just as valid; but Russia would probably be even less likely to undertake any naval operations along the Ukraine coast south of Odessa.
That misses the continual and ongoing wars against the independent press, opposition politicians, democracy, and all forms of protest and dissent, and of course, the truth.
They're not flying Global Hawks over Ukraine; they're flying over the Black Sea and NATO/EU countries alongside Ukraine. Quite a significant distinction.
Aside from which the Global Hawk is a highly advanced surveillance UAV; Predators and Reapers are for delivering munitions alongside more standard surveillance functions.
The Reaper and Predator are not designed to operate in heavily contested airspace and they don't carry standoff munitions. They have to be virtually above a target in order to hit it; I genuinely don't see how they would have any impact against Russia in Ukraine. And that's even if you ignore all the other issues as mentioned previously.
Ukraine needs artillery systems, anti-aircraft systems, armoured vehicles in large quantities and it needed them last week.
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