Weird thing is invasion was meant to be easy, holding is the difficult part. So far Russia cannot figure out the invasion part successfully.
The same three problems for Russia apply, how to get there, secure them and hold them. Their efforts to date, barbarity aside, have been pretty appalling and there's no evidence they can achieve any of these so-called objectives either.
It just goes to show you never can tell. Though maybe it's because he was a comedian and not a career politician that makes the difference? Comedians have to be able to really understand human nature and culture to be close to any good. By nature they're observers of society and people and they also tend to know where the lines of truth and comedy converge and diverge. Not too bad a basis for leadership I reckon.
I read an article from a retired American general a couple of weeks ago that if this conflict lasts until mid April that the Russians will be fast running out of equipment and weapons to sustain a major offensive never mind restart a new one. Seems like we are getting very close to that. I can see a major final onslaught on Donbas where they throw the kitchen sink at it, but i think Kyiv is safe for now, unless the Chinese start shipping the Russians equipment and bombs.
NATO and the US are being pretty careful not to trigger any kind of nuclear conflict. That's very clear in what they've been saying.
I've said this before on this forum, but the comparisons with all previous wars simply evaporate when you add nuclear weapons, and particularly large quantities of them and you would be very naive to assume that an unhinged Russian leadership definitely would not use them. This is not the later days of the USSR and all evidence would suggest that the regime in Moscow is not particularly strategic or logical in how they have approached this.
The consequences of a nuclear exchange are incalculably serious. You would be looking at hundreds of millions of deaths, mass starvation and the end of civilisation as well as the utter deviation of entire ecosystems. If it was very serious (all or most warheads fired), you'd have a distinct possibility of very large parts of the planet being uninhabitable, and not just for humans but also animals and plants. That could lead to mass extinctions of all sorts of life, including humans. You would be looking at a situation where none of this would matter. None of history would matter. There might literally be no large or complex life left and evolution would have spend billions of years getting back to something like this again, assuming intelligence even ever evolved again.
Nuclear war is basically suicide and it would be a decision someone would be taking on behalf of the rest of us, and I honestly do not think anyone has the mandate do to that nor should they have.
The Ukraine invasion is horrendous, but the solutions to it absolutely have to avert nuclear conflict. It's not something anyone can win.
Zelensky after 40 days of war. Powerful and terrible images. I bet when he launched that comedy show Servant of the People he never thought it would lead here.... Sawa docu on him the other day, in all honesty he seemed like a fairly superficial populist up till recently, but no doubt he has risen to the awful occasion
Meh, Brexiteer type. Par for the course.
I was talking about all the "diplomats" in the embassy. Not sure how you got all Russians from that.
Aye they've been building up there the last week it seems from reports, it enables them to take the southwest of Ukraine. I wonder if Moldova is on the cards but considering the terrain is a bit more challenging it might not be as easy. Invading a second country would illicit a stronger response from neighbouring countries I'd imagine.
Later this week..
😁
The UK hasn't done anything that has been of any disadvantage to itself economically. Yes, they have sent arms at a relatively nominal cost. They have not taken many refugees which would actually cost them significantly. The reason they are not using Russian gas is because they have their own and they are too far away for the pipeline rather than any principled stance against Putin. They have facilitated the oligarchs money laundering for decades.
If I was them I'd be looking to join too, very hard to trade with Europe when you're not in the cartel.
But the central tenet in the European project, the high minded ideal that we have been lectured upon by social democrats for decades, was peace and security in Europe. Now we see it was all just about enrichment. The likes of Merkel and Macron enabled Vlad and continue to do so, in the hope that all this will blow over.
More of a tea man myself. And apparently happy to see three year olds die by the dozen while adding the milk* While you're apparently perfectly fine with the prospect of three year olds dying by the millions so you can impotently vent your anger. Now I'm not great with the oul sums in general, but dozens versus millions and I'm the one out of balance "buddy"? Right so.
*clear proof I'm not a Russki. 😁
I have been having tractor towing prey withdrawal symptoms. Thankfully this showed up.
What's the delay. I said this weeks ago and the Ukranians have had to endure untold misery while we tiptoe around a psychopath. This was never going to be any other way. Give them what was needed immediately.
Are we afraid of crossing Putins red lines when we don't even know where those lines are and they change on a daily basis. We could do zero and still cross a perceived line in his mind. All we do is embolden and enable him.
Taking this as an opportune moment for a misguided and pathetic jibe at the EU does not reflect particularly well on you, particularly given Ukraine's desire to join said lie is a factor in the invasion of their country.
"Ukraine Update: Kyiv Warns Russia Is Adding Troops in Moldova" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-02/ukraine-update-u-s-sending-additional-military-aid-to-kyiv
Moldova should invite some foreign forces in to do military exercises in their territory of Transnistria.
I still can't fathom why Russia didn't do this in the first place. Invade, ignore the west of Ukraine for being too far from their supply lines(which was evident in the first days), take the "independent states" in the east, being on their border and closeness to supplies, where they would find not much but more local support and something they would have had far more success with even with their amateur hour keystone cops military. It would have likely set off an even bigger internal displacement of Ukrainians than their meddling in the Donbas has and would likely have resulted in less pushback from the rest of the world. IMHO that's shows just how stupid their military planners and putin are.
"(cue the "oh so you support children being raped" responses)"
Right on cue.
It's absolutely terrifying.
People, who I assume are functioning members of society and can vote, are calling people cowards because they fear a nuclear war.
That was an absolutely unhinged post.
(cue the "oh so you support children being raped" responses)
That would be the glass half empty assessment.
In reality if the Ukrainians are supplied with the right and enough weaponry they will decimate the Russian army in Ukraine, unthinkable 6 weeks ago.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ukrainians pull out of the "peace talks" in the next week or 2 as the full horrors of what has gone on in the past 40 odd days come to light.
It will be the catalyst for the West to pony up the proper tools to finish the job.
As shocking as the images are coming out of Ukraine, no one in US or Uk intelligence is surprised by them.
It was expected.
Seems this is now Russias next move, to get troops from the south and north to push towards Dnipro. If they make progress Ukrainian troops on the front line in Donbas will have to consider a tactical retreat west or else they could end up completely encircled between Dnipro and the Donbass. As the war moves further east it also means Ukraines supply lines get substantially longer. They can though move some troops from Kyiv to the east as if Russia comes back for a second bite the Ukrainians will get advance warning of a Russian troop build up from US intelligence.
So you'd be prepared to pay the price of a million three year olds being vapourised and millions more dying horrible deaths from burns and radiation sickness and starvation with their families and all those around them across a large part of this planet? Seems a balanced view alright.
Are you talking about Russians in general living here? They're all invasion supporters now, even the ones who aren't? Not because of their views, but simply because they're Russian? Their children born and bred here. Single them out too? Because that's the rocky path you're starting down G. And people remain shocked how such idiotic blind partisan nastiness kicks off elsewhere or in the past, even when they're happy to espouse it close to home and in the present.
Like I said earlier it's remarkably easy to get even otherwise intelligent people go down dark roads they'd be horrified to witness somewhere else with someone else and would rightfully call it out.
What arms are the Brits not sending that other countries are?
The Pillars of the EU: Germany, France, The Netherlands etc, are happy to collude with a country that now poses an existential threat to Europe. They thought and hoped that the Ukraine would collapse within days of invasion.
The Brits and Yanks trained and helped the Ukranians hold out
Tells you everything you need to know about the lie that the EU is
Putin is continuing to push to see how long this loose western alliance will stay together and its fraying at the edges already. Germany, Austria and France will take little ot no pain on gas or oil.
We'll do very little here but send a sympathy card and hope the population stands up as usual to carry the refugee influx. We won't even expel diplomats who lie about the rape and murder of children.
The British are happy to send limited arms but not take refugees. Every country is putting itself first.
Putin sees it and knows if he can go a while longer the whole lot will fall apart. He'll have a weak, divided Europe and then he'll turn the screw.
It's hard to fathom how weak we've been and the potential consequences of this weakness.
Czech Republic becomes the first country to sent tanks to Ukraine. They have also offered to refit and repair damaged Ukrainian equipment.
Not true (on the "imaginary posters who support Russia") sadly. There are lots of such accounts here on this website (whether they do what they do because they actually support Russia & Putin or for other reasons isn't always clear of course, but doesn't really matter in the end as regards their actions & the effect).
There's a big list of them on page 1 that got removed from the thread.
One (as a reader) would have probably had to endure perhaps 1 x somewhat anger inducing "actors" or "faked by the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis" post from each one of them about Russia's activities in occupied areas in north of Ukraine over the last few days (or else put them on ignore) if they hadn't been kicked.
Not doubting you, but there is a video over 5 minutes long after the first batch of pows go through the nex group are wearing red bands on there arm or in there hands over there heads,.
Thought the Russians wore red or rebels.
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