Does anyone seriously believe that Russia are negotiating in good faith? I'd say it's more likely that the forces around Kyiv are exhausted and need of resupplying and regrouping.
Just as I think Ukraine joining NATO is dangerous in a geopolitical context...the direction Ukraine wants to go here is also dangerous...trying to extract legal guarantees of protection from the west.
I'd prefer if they simply declare neutrality.
I was making an analogy.
Poisoning someone for peace talks is like beating someone to improve moral.
You may not like it but I think its quite understandable why they want those guarantees. Their biggest neighbour has invaded them without any real provocation, has killed thousands of their citizens and destroyed infrastructure and buildings. Of course they'd want guarantees to ensure it didn't happen again with real consequences for the aggressor nation.
Positive move
The question is will the Russian's demand partition in the east, formal recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, and how far is Ukraine willing to push back on those demands.
"Ok Russia, we're neutral now. Do you promise not to attack and murder us again?".
Talk is cheap. Wouldn't believe any of it till the troops are gone back across the border to Russia. When's the last time Russia told the truth about any aspect of Putin's war?
Complete bollix, any analysts I have read have stated that Russia is now concentrating on the East and encircling the Ukrainian forces there. Because Kyiv was not taken or is unlikely to be taken without massive Russian reinforcements they were always going to go more defensive there. This has nothing to do with the negotiations and more to do with Russia changing its priorities.
Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”
Or in reality we are getting the shít kicked out of us and we are down to our last half dozen generals.
They already had the Budapest Memorandum which the West welched on, why would this be any different?
Russia promising not to attack Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine's neutrality is worth as much as a junkie asking you for a tenner, but you've only got twenty and they promise to go get a tenner in change if you give them the twenty. This being the same junkie who tried to mug you the previous week.
I think the concept of Ukraine becoming a sort of shadow member of NATO is a good idea, especially if it has parliamentary assent from participating countries. Russia aren't going anywhere where they know it would trigger an affirmative response from western militaries. Especially not in the current state of the Russian military, which is absolute gash. The concession would make would be that Ukraine, not being an actual NATO member, would not have NATO forces stationed on its land during peace time.
What would neutrality do for them against more Russian aggression,
Absolutely nothing
It’s not really a very sane position for Russia to take. Also why apply this logic to Ukraine and not any other bordering country?
It’s effectively like asking a non hostile neighbour to be completely demilitarised, just in case it ever wants to invade it and to remain cowed to Russian supremacy. It’s basically obnoxious imperialism and hostile tactics.
This is another Russian bluff to allow them to restructure and resupply troops inside ukraine,as it stands they are still attacking near Kiev and bombing Mariupol
As I keep saying, the Ukrainians need to make the most of their chance before anything is signed. Pick off everything they can North of Kyiv. Don't get in "battles" because then you have prisoners to keep. If they have any kind of artillery at all and can get it in range of Crimea then do so. They have to inflict as much damage as possible and they know where most of the targets are.
And yeah, if I were Klitschko unless I had incredibly good reason to think otherwise I'd be putting on a curfew tonight.
I've read a few places saying the invasion has unified Ukraine, and the stuff in the East the last few years has helped but honestly I'm very pleasantly surprised that Kyiv was united enough so far. Given how evenly split the country was so relatively recently and with the influence (and not huge distance) Moscow had til recently I assumed Zelenskyy would do well to get through the first few days. After that, seeing him in different places with different people, well, they've shown that they're not afraid to trust as well.
In short, the Budapest Memorandum does not stipulate a particular response from western signatories in the case where Ukraine's sovereignty is breached, and U.S representatives have been fairly vague over the years about what exactly the country's policy would be in the event. Some statements assertive, while others more conservative.
One point that I thought was particularly interesting :-
And, perhaps most pertinent with regard to a potential U.S. response today:
“To seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine … if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.”
Problem being that Russia, sitting on the UNSC, can veto anything which they attempt to pass, making it something of a talking shop in cases where one of its sitting members is the aggressor.
Again, Western powers can hardly be accused of having stood idle during this invasion. They have supplied a huge amount of arms and training, humanitarian relief inside of Ukraine and out, plus put hard sanctions on Russia. You also have leaders like Macron still attempting to speak with Putin and talk him out of this crazy escapade.
Doesn't look like Ukraine will get that chance, Russian units already withdrawing.
At least the battle for Kyiv looks to be over. Unfortunately the battle for Donbass looks like it's only getting going.
Retreating Invading a country slightly less, always an excellent trust building exercise
Get them out
"There has been a flurry of diplomatic activity in the Benelux. Belgium has just announced that it is expelling 21 Russian diplomats for spying. The Netherlands is doing the same with 17 others."
Mr 'Russian warship, go fuck yourself' has returned with his indellible and permanent place in history assured. :-)
The ukrainians should keep going now that they have em going backwards, they def arent acting in good faith
His paid out a nice bit so lol
Oh, yes, oh yes - booooom!
In Roubles? Ouch
Didnt even think of that lol makes it even worse
If at all possible they should be cutting them off. $66k per solider cost to Putin and maybe some more word will make its way home. How much capacity they have though I have no idea.
"Ukraine war: Macron says France, Greece and Turkey to attempt 'humanitarian' Mariupol evacuation" https://www.euronews.com/2022/03/25/ukraine-war-latest-zelenskyy-tells-eu-sanctions-came-a-little-late
I thought this was a load of BS at the time. Macron has been very ineffectual. He never seemed to cop on that diplomacy doesn't work with serial liars.
Good stuff!
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