Is there going to be a full on civil war that's quite a conclusion to jump to. No matter what happens the Nuclear question is always going to be in the background.
If Putin stays in power he will use nukes as the ballast that allows him push the envelope of International Law attempting to slice off parts of the neighbouring countries?
Its better to deal with this devil first, if others appear then deal with them as well.
Indeed. More senseless word soup from the orange one.
Talks a lot. Says SFA!!!
I wrote this in plain english in the post before: "Just as the Russian psyche too often views the West through her lens, we in the West too often tend to view them through ours."
Ukraine have captured more vehicles/equipment than they've lost in total (749 to 574) - confirmed, Moscow is Ukraines biggest arms supplier
I doubt very much if they will waste a Javelin on one of these..but having said that, these Toyotas can handle rough terrain, and move fast when they need to, so I would not dismiss them either, and that machine gun can do damage.
What beatings are you talking of?
I think Dustin the Turkey actually ran for President of Ireland in the 90s, and if you ask me, he wasn't even the biggest turkey of the bunch! hweh hweh hweh hweh hweh
What if there isn't a clear successor straight away? I'd say full-on civil war in the country with the world's biggest nuclear arsenal would give other world leaders a few sleepless nights...
Says the guy who continually fakes being in the warzone and leads a loyalists who shoot into Ukrainian apartment blocks for Tiktok videos
If it’s true we’ll it’s frightening, but also one wonders is this all a little stage managed ( the poisoning). Is there proof (photos) of skin pealing and sore eyes ?
Putin's administration has a long and rich history of poisonings. It's the perfect warning shot to Abramovich (and by extension other oligarchs) not to side with the Ukrainians (which is what he was doing), also a clear message they can be reached anywhere.
Or the alternative is it frees up someone in the inner circle to remove him from the board with the safety net that the first suspicion will be directed towards the "hated" Americans and not focussing on someone closer to home.
I believe that this war is primarily Putin's baby with him gone it opens up the possibility and path for a Russian de-escalation as they can quite clearly state it was all Putin (and some of his close hangers on).
Also what is your solution leave a tyrant in place who is costing Ukrainians and Russians lives because there maybe something worse in the background? I highly doubt there is something worse than Putin.
But we are almost back there with our right wing government destroying our courts and leading us to autocracy (why people don't see it in the West, I don't know). We are still surviving thanks to UE. Russians didn't have such help.
Look at Ukraine. If Zelensky didn't win last election (and in my opinion his win was partially a result of his show and a big part of people voting for him treated it like voting for Dustin the Turkey in Eurovision at one stage) it would be a Russian puppet there surrendering Ukraine at the spot. And it all be done and dusted now. But as we see, Ukrainians are not like that and are fighting for survival. While, if election went other way, you would sum them up as you summed Russians.
Russians are the same people as everywhere.
You speak like someone with no knowledge of Russia, I doubt you have been and I doubt you would be able for it. Just because they are white like you you think they are the same, but it is a very singular place, as different as the distinct regions are there is no place like it.
Sounds like this recent poisoning is contrived but to what end so much us going on behind the scenes
There doctrines or word isn't worth the paper it's written on, so it makes no odds this is a state that bombs civilians and steals planes and should be treated as such.
I am a Pole, so I can tell you that it is a b*****t.
Poles are not Russians and Poland has a very different history and cultural narrative. When the Soviet Union collapsed(which Poland herself had quite the hand in) look at the difference and the choices made between your country and your people and Russia and hers. Out of the chaos Russia returned to her old ways, Poland didn't.
I mean they are also the only country I can think of that had two successful revolutions in a single year. If you want to be technical you could argue 3 since the communists came to power, held elections, lost and took over by military means again. A large chunk of what spurned on both of these revolutions, or at least gave both of them enough public support was a failed war (WW1). Certainly they may end up with other issues again but that does not mean it will be Putin in charge.
Certainly, but in both cases it had been building up for a long time and over periods of instablity and change, internally and externally, until the dam finally burst. The Russia of today and the past twenty years since putin ascended the throne has been far more stable and to the average Russian far better than it had been. We quite rightly see a czar and his lords carving up the country and leaving scraps for the "peasants", they see a czar and his lords stabilising the country from the chaos of the 80's and 90's while their lives have gotten better. Like I was saying it's quite a different mindset going on. Certainly among his support base.
Would the Americans really want Putin gone in such chaotic circumstances, where they could not be sure who or what came after?
I am a Pole, so I can tell you that it is a b*****t. No-one "accepts" autocrats. They stay in power because after chaos and change new democratic rules are often too weak and full of mistakes to defend the country against such attempts. And such cronies group using old checked rules and terror stays in power.
Also the most important things is, that there is a big amount of people in such newly changed countries, who adapt to change slower and need help with it, which is often forgotten. If such people had survival guaranteed, there would be no need for autocrats, which give that protection. Communism guaranteed this: the right for work. It gave enough money to survive. Most people were very poor but they didn't die of famine. Communisim collapsed (or Socialism in Poland), because there was only vinegar on our shelves at shops at the end.
You don't have far right groups in Ireland because welfare money here is good, so any populist wouldn't be listened here. So maybe it is good solution to pay this price and be free from such risks.
Usually old people vote for autocrats. Here noncontributory pension is almost the same as contributory pension, so people don't feel like second category citizen, so no-one needs to promise them dignity etc.
Not much there really. "Oh no we won't use them...unless..."
What does Russia consider to be a threat of existence though?
The part that stands out to me is "Medvedev said Russia's nuclear doctrine did not require an adversary to use such weapons first".
That's what makes his comment 'he cannot stay in power' so bizarre. On the one hand they are refusing to facilitate the transfer of aircraft in case it provokes Putin and on the other hand he seems to be making threats about toppling Putin himself. The White House has been adamant all along that that was not their policy.
Remember the part in the Godfather where Don Corleone talks about anything happening his son after making a pact: "I'm a superstitious man, and if some unlucky accident should befall Michael - if he is to be shot in the head by a police officer, or be found hung dead in a jail cell... or if he should be struck by a bolt of lightning - then I'm going to blame some of the people in this room; and then I do not forgive."
What happens now if there is an assassination attempt within his own inner circle? A plane crash or a heart attack or stroke? It would seem a lot more reasonable to conclude the US had taken him out, even if they had absolutely nothing to do with it. Total f**k up by Biden.
I highly doubt it but I'd be sure the yanks and others have been working on assets in Putin's inner circle so if anything happens it will happen from that direction and it may not be obvious. Putin might slip on his lovely expensive marble tiles or fall out a window or have a stroke....etc etc
Taking him out in the manner of Bin Laden or Soleimani? Is that a realistic possibility?
Well it pales into comparison with what Russia is doing, murdering civilians deliberately whilst the talks are going on.
I don't think that's going to happen myself. Just as the Russian psyche too often views the West through her lens, we in the West too often tend to view them through ours.
The West has many differences, one of the biggest among them is change, quite often rapid change and an acceptance of that, even a drive for it. Look at the Ireland of forty years ago and the Ireland of today and that's just Ireland. Russia(and China too) are less countries like Ireland, France, Holland etc and much more empires. The European nations built empires across the world that didn't last very long, Russia and China didn't need to and they've lasted a lot longer. Empires survive by being autocratic, centralised, wary of outside influences/invasion, traditional and wary of change which brings chaos, with a controlled population under regional governors. Change tends to come slowly and when it does come happens at the centre.
We're used to change and fear it less, they're really not and do. Change for them means chaos. The biggest changes in Russia's from the Mongols to Communism, its rise and fall, brought chaos and very quickly they reverted to what worked before and stopped chaos. Within a short time of the fall of Czarist Russia and the chaos that followed, they accepted a new czar in Stalin. Germany's invasion further reinforced his throne. The Wall comes down and they had chaos again and soon enough they accepted a new czar in putin.
IMHO anyway it'll take more than sanctions, hardship for the common Russian and a failed war - all of which will be spun as yet another attack on Mother Russia, something they understand and fear down to their marrow and the rulling spin reinforces all the time - to threaten a regime change. In the short to medium term anyway.
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